UFC 295 predictions
11/11/2023 13:00
Two fighters will leave Madison Square Garden as champions and though their status may be disputed, that only promises more drama in 2024.
UFC 295 headliner Jiri Prochazka has the tidiest case to call himself the best in the world in his division should he defeat Alex Pereira on Saturday. Prochazka won the light heavyweight title at UFC 275 in June 2022, but vacated it just five months later after suffering a shoulder injury. The 205-pound title has pinged around since then, even being vacated a second time by Jamahal Hill, and it would save everyone a few headache-inducing debates if it just ended up back around the fighter who never lost his No. 1 spot in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings during his time off.
Should Alex Pereira win, well, he already turned the rankings upside down once, so why not do it again? "Poatan" has been brilliant since fully committing from making the jump from kickboxing to MMA, winning the UFC middleweight title in just his eighth fight. Now, he can become a two-division champion in just his 11th fight, which honestly sounds a bit silly. Pereira has honed his striking skills to the point where he is arguably the most feared hitter in all of MMA. If anyone has the power to shake up the entire UFC, it's him.
The co-main event, which features Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall battling to be crowned interim heavyweight champion, is unlikely to provide as satisfying an answer as to who is the true No. 1 of their division, but it's through no fault of either competitor. The pair of contenders were called upon to compete at "The World's Most Famous Arena" when heavyweight titleholder Jon Jones was forced to withdraw from his matchup with Stipe Miococ, giving either Pavlovich or Aspinall the opportunity to earn their first UFC title.
If we're just going based on merit though, whoever wins this fight should make their case to be considered the baddest man on the planet. Jones has just one win at heavyweight, Miocic is approaching three years since his most recent fight, and with respect to Francis Ngannou, he's looking more like a contender in boxing these days than in MMA. Pavlovich, Aspinall, this could be your moment.
In other main card action, Mackenzie Dern takes on former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade, lightweights Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint Denis meet in a guaranteed banger, and featherweight Diego Lopes looks to cap off an impressive rookie campaign when he takes on Pat Sabatini.
What: UFC 295
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York
When: Saturday, Nov. 11. The card begins with a four-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6:00 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card on ESPNews and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting's Global Rankings)
Jiri Prochazka (1) vs. Alex Pereira (5)
The people's main event is getting its just due.
Yeah, to some degree, we were all looking forward to Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic fighting for some sort of hackneyed GOAT (there's a term that needs to be laid to rest for a year or two, am I right?) title, so it hurts to have lost that one. But my guess is that Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira was the most highly anticipated UFC 295 fight among the hardcore set anyway.
It's for good reason. Prochazka is the light heavyweight king who never lost his crown. He became champion after coming out on top against Glover Teixeira in—and I say this without hyperbole—maybe the greatest fight I've ever seen in my entire life. Prior to that, he smoked past title challengers Dominick Reyes and Volkan Oezdemir. Prior to that, he ran through some veteran competition over in Rizin. He's 23-1-1 over the past decade and he avenged that lone loss to Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal. The man can strike with anyone. And has.
That list doesn't include Pereira, arguably the best striker currently on the UFC roster. Not that you needed his recent induction into the Glory Kickboxing Hall of Fame to remind you, but "Poatan" has been catching bodies in the standup for years before landing in the UFC. He's shown advances in other aspects of his game, including doing just enough in the grappling department to defend himself and earn a split decision against Jan Blachowicz, but his bread and butter remains popping fools' in the jaw, something as well as anyone we've seen inside the octagon.
It's that singular skill that has me leaning towards Pereira. As unorthodox as Prochazka's approach can be and as tough as he is, he gets hit a lot and Pereira is not someone you want to get clipped by once, much less several times. Prochazka will respect Pereira and be more cautious, I'm sure, but Pereira is patient and won't force the action. This is going to be a great fight with numerous memorable exchanges. When the dust clears, it's Pereira who will still be standing.
Pick: Pereira
Sergei Pavlovich (2) vs. Tom Aspinall (T4)
Weirdly, when I first started breaking down this matchup, the first comparison that came to mind was Miocic's first title defense against Francis Ngannou. That's not to say that Tom Aspinall has the same wrestling style as Miocic nor that Sergei Pavlovich's takedown defense is as suspect as Ngannou's was at the time, but it's one way I can see the fight going.
Pavlovich certainly shares one thing in common with Ngannou: The kind of punching power that should make any heavyweight think twice about standing and trading with him. It's not like Aspinall is a stranger to first-round finishes himself, he'll just have to be tactically-minded when it comes to dealing with the hammerfisted Russian. A few takedowns early on will go a long way to setting a more comfortable tone for Aspinall.
Still, being absolute physical specimen can take you a long way in the land of the big boys and few can match Pavlovich's attributes. Aside from the obvious—that being dude having muscles upon muscles—Pavlovich brings an 84-inch reach into the octagon with him. That's arm length that rivals that of Jon Jones. He's also quicker than you'd think and while he might not be as fast as Aspinall, the speed gap isn't all that wide.
This is as close to a toss-up as you can get in a championship bout, interim or otherwise, so a fast finish either way wouldn't surprise. That said, I'm actually going with Aspinall leading the dance in the first two rounds before Pavlovich catches him with a brick hand and puts him down in the third or fourth.
Pick: Pavlovich
Mackenzie Dern (9) vs. Jessica Andrade (5)
Let's hope that Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade aren't too distracted by their ongoing personal difficulties, which they discussed in detail this week. You can read all about it at the following links:
It's fair game to wonder how much the behind-the-scenes drama might affect their performance on Saturday or how it has already affected their recent form (Andrade is currently on a career-worst three-fight losing streak, all in 2023), but let's remove that from the equation if we can.
Skill-for-skill, this is exactly the right challenge for Dern right now. She's passed a couple of tough tests recently in Angela Hill and Tecia Torres, but still needs to keep adding to her résumé if she wants the UFC and its fans to view her as a must-see title challenger. Beating a former champion would answer a lot of questions. We know Dern can dominate with her grappling and she can make a serious statement by finishing Andrade on the ground.
Like with the co-main event, it's clearly in one of the fighter's best interests to get this one to the mat as quickly as possible. As much as Andrade has struggled recently, she still remains one of the hardest hitters at 115 and 125 pounds. Dern has shown herself to have a sturdy chin, but if there's anyone that can KO her, it's Andrade.
Dern's size and strength should be too much for Andrade though, especially when you consider how much trouble larger grapplers have given Andrade in the past. It's been a rough year for Andrade and it won't end any easier once Dern gets her hooks into her.
Pick: Dern
Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis
At some point in the past two years, Matt Frevola decided he was no longer interested in what the judges had to say and that his fights would end in five minutes or less, good sense be damned. It's one reason why he's been so successful lately. And it's why he's going to lose to Benoit Saint Denis.
Maybe I'm still too hung up on Saint Denis' debut loss to Elizeu Zaleski (which took place at welterweight), but I'm not sure the hardy Frenchman can be finished. That's bad news for Frevola who will be looking to end this one early in front of a hungry home crowd. Frevola's whole deal right now is that he throws everything with intent to finish. There's no range-finding, minimal set-up, it's just hammer, hammer, hammer, until he's driven the nail in and splintered the wood.
If he can finish Saint Denis in this fashion I'll be mighty impressed. What I foresee happening though is that Saint Denis fires back with enough force to make Frevola think twice and then takes Frevola down so he can go to work with his superior ground game. Frevola might last a round or two, but Saint Denis will end this in Round 3 the latest.
Pick: Saint Denis
Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes
At this point, I have to wonder if they're finding opponents specifically to test out Diego Lopes' guard. Pat Sabatini brings a legit Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt into this matchup so if these two go to the ground, the fans at MSG could be in for a real treat. Lopes is dangerous off of his back, Sabatini has outstanding top control. Something is going to give.
Sabatini is at his best when he can out-muscle and outwork his opponents, which adds to the intrigue of this fight's early goings. We know Lopes is comfortable fighting from bottom position, but is this a skill he'll want to test against Sabatini? Lopes can throw up all the submissions he wants, it won't do him any good if he can't lock one in and Sabatini is raining ground-and-pound down on him.
As with most featherweight matchups, Lopes' size will help him to mitigate Sabatini's physicality. He also has a significant edge in standup and that discrepancy is what will decide the fight. Sabatini will exert a ton of energy to pin Lopes to the canvas, but Lopes will eventually get this fight back to the feet. Over time, he'll start to light Sabatini up with sharp boxing and eventually he'll score a knockout in Round 2.
Pick: Lopes
Preliminaries
Steve Erceg def. Alessandro Costa
Loopy Godinez (14) def. Tabatha Ricci (13)
Mateusz Rebecki def. Roosevelt Roberts
Viacheslav Borshchev def. Nazim Sadykhov
Jared Gordon def. Mark Madsen
John Castaneda def. Kyung Ho Kang
Joshua Van def. Kevin Borjas
