Week 1 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks |

04/09/2025 12:15 -

It's football time once again! The NFL offseason feels incredibly long, but then all of a Sunday the Thursday kickoff game is upon us.

The NFL is slowly expanding the schedule with it feeling inevitable that we get seven days of football most weeks. Maybe not soon, but the NFL makes it feel inevitable! For now, we get four days of football in Week 1. The week opens with Cowboys-Eagles on Thursday, Chiefs-Chargers in Brazil on Friday, 13 games on Sunday, and Vikings-Bears closing things out on Monday.

The return of football means it's time once again to get start in your weekly Survivor leagues. If you have never played Survivor, it's a contest in which you pick one team to win each week. If your team wins in Week 1, you advance and can make a pick in Week 2. If your team loses you are eliminated. In many contests, a tie acts the same as a loss. Some leagues offer double elimination as an option. The most important rule is that in most leagues you cannot pick the same team twice during the season.

And so, I'm going to be around offering Survivor strategy each week. I've been playing Survivor for nearly a decade now. I won the contest once, but usually end up getting eliminated in October. Maybe this year will get me back on the winning track. Doubtful, but you never know!

The Week 1 slate is always a difficult one because we don't know who is going to surprise us as better or worse than expected. But we'll do our best to offer up safe picks, value picks, and potential trap picks.

Safest picks

Broncos over Titans

The Broncos are big favorites, and if you like what they've done, I see them as the safest pick this week. If you think they're contenders, then you might want to save them for October. If you think they might get tripped up…

Best value picks

Broncos over Titans
Cardinals over Saints

Denver and Arizona are two teams that have some playoff potential, but have proven in recent years they could bottom out. Week 1 is a difficult time to figure out who will be unexpectedly good or bad, so finding value picks can be a little more difficult. Oddsmakers view Denver and Arizona as the better squads in these games, but upsets happen. Be aware, but these feel like two games you can get a little value this first week.

Trap picks

Eagles over Cowboys
Commanders over Giants
Bengals over Browns

If you survive into the second half of the season, you'll have to make some more difficult decisions. But early in the year, the key decision is avoiding divisional matchups. The Eagles, Commanders, and Bengals are home favorites by 8.5 points, six points, and five points, respectively. Those are sizable numbers even if the Cowboys are now without Micah Parsons, Russell Wilson might very well be cooked, and the Browns are the Browns. Stay away from those.