The 7 best NFL futures bets ahead of training camp |

09/07/2025 18:10 -

These over/under win totals are sure things.

It's close to the beginning of NFL training camp around the league, and with it the first time we really get a sense for what these teams will be like in 2025. Up to this point it's been a purely academic affair of previous experience with on-paper ability, but soon the rubber will meet the road.

This also means it's the last time to lock in some NFL futures bets before the odds move too much. Odds are up for a variety of futures betting, but also a very clear line on the over/under on win totals for 2025. Today we dive into TK teams I think are being severely overrated and underrated where you can put some money.

All win totals taken from Fanduel.

Houston Texans under 9.5 wins

It wasn't long ago that the Texans looked like the next team to take the jump into the NFL elite with C.J. Stroud under center and DeMeco Ryans as head coach. That good will has evaporated very quickly.

Houston was a 10-win playoff team last year by virtue of playing in the NFL's worst division, and this season everyone looks better except for the Texans. Don't get me wrong, the front office did work to load Stroud with more weapons, but the offensive line is abysmal in Houston.

It's for this reason I think there's a high likelihood they play like a poor man's version of the Bengals where they'll put up big offensive numbers while getting their QB sacked 50 times this year. I'm not saying they'll only win five games or anything like that, but it's hard to envision them getting 10 wins again this season.

Minnesota Vikings over 8.5 wins

The trendy thing has been to hate on the Vikings in the NFC North, and they just keep proving people wrong. Sure, this isn't as pronounced as their futures total in 2024 — but 8.5 wins still feels far too low for a team that has such good coaching on both sides of the ball.

It's fair to say that J.J. McCarthy is a total mystery, but so was Sam Darnold last year. The receiving corps, the line, the running backs are all good enough to take pressure off. Defensively this is still a team with one of the league's best minds in Brian Flores.

If we look at Minnesota's out of division opponents they face the Falcons, Steelers, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Giants. That's five games already which should be wins for this team. It's very easy to see them getting another four in division or among their remaining games and getting to 10 wins this season.

New England Patriots under 7.5 wins

We really think that much of Mike Vrabel, eh? Don't get me wrong, he's a good coach — but not good enough to double the Pats win total in one year. The story in New England is about incremental improvement, and the pieces are there to build this correctly. That's not enough to make be buying that they'll be close to a .500 team this season.

Too much is being made of Stefon Diggs heading to the Patriots. He isn't nearly as dynamic as he once was, and has a propensity to be a distraction in the locker room. There's more of a chance the team is fed up with Diggs by the trade deadline than him helping them win 8 games.

The under on this feels too safe.

Cleveland Browns over 5.5 wins

The Browns were absolute ass last season, but this team is too good in the trenches to project them to only win five games. In 2025 the Browns don't need to pretend Deshaun Watson is good and be forced to start him, which is a massive net win — and they'll have a QB under center with less of a propensity for turnovers than Jameis Winston.

Joe Flacco isn't going to turn this into a playoff team, but he can get the job done. After all, he won four games with this team in 2023. Right now their odds are based on a radar blip in 2024, and I see this team bouncing back to some degree.

It's easy to see the Browns going 7-10 this season which means the odds are on the side of taking the over here.

Seattle Seahawks under 7.5 wins

There's no doubt the Seahawks took a step back from 2024, but I don't think how much of a step back is really being appreciated. I hated the move to sign Sam Darnold in free agency in the hopes he'll emulate the success he had in Minnesota, and without D.K. Metcalf you're really banking on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp equating to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, which they're just not.

If you look at the NFC West all the teams are solid, and someone has to be out in the cold. I see Arizona being the team to take a step forward, and the Seahawks to take a bigger step back to somewhere in the six win range.

Cincinnati Bengals under 9.5 wins

Why exactly do we think the Bengals are going to be better than last year? This is effectively the same team that struggled to nine wins a year ago and didn't make many improvements, and we think they're going to do better?

Joe Burrow had a legendary season passing the ball in 2024 and it still only got this team to 9-8 for the second straight year. Until the Bengals get their line play sorted they don't belong in the 10 win conversation, no matter how explosive that offense can be.

I like to see some internal logic when it comes to a team being projected as better in the odds, but with the Bengals I just can't find it. They are the epitome of a 9-8 or 8-9 team and that's why I'd take the under all day here.

Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins

This whole logic element comes in here as well. Why do we think the Chargers got worse? Jim Harbaugh already rolled the dice on turning over the roster and it totally panned out in 2024. Now he has a team established in his system, knowing what they need to do, and how to execute on his vision. They won 11 games last year, and should finish around the same.

There's just not a great reason why this team should take a step back. I think they're poised to take another step forward in 2025 and this feels as safe as any futures bet you can make.