Full list of Week 1 straight-up picks with confidence levels |

04/09/2025 12:00 -

The NFL returns! The 2025-26 regular season kicks off on Thursday night with the Eagles hosting the Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia is coming off a Super Bowl win while the Cowboys just traded Micah Parsons to conclude a messy divorce. The Cowboys are a fairly sizable underdog, getting 8.5 points, but divisional games are always tricky to prediction.

The start of every NFL season brings plenty of question marks, and it will take several weeks to figure out who is better than expected and who is worse than expected. I'm back once again with weekly picks, but I can guarantee this will be a bit more luck based. I didn't pay super close attention to the NFL in the offseason, but I'm ready to offer up thoughts each week on straight up winners and losers.

I'll be posting straight-up picks every Thursday morning featuring confidence levels. I'll pick each game's winner and slot the picks based on confidence levels — high, medium, low, and no. A game with three asterisks (***) after it indicates a game where I'm picking the betting underdog to get the win.

On to Week 1 picks. I've got six outright upsets among the underdogs, which is probably the most you'll see from me this season. We just don't know what's what, and this season feels especially unpredictable. As always for transparency's sake, I'm a 49ers fan, so every week you should take that pick with a grain of salt.

High confidence

Cardinals over Saints
Bengals over Browns
Broncos over Titans

Medium confidence

Eagles over Cowboys
Commanders over Giants
49ers over Seahawks
Packers over Lions
Rams over Texans

Low confidence

Chiefs over Chargers
Jaguars over Panthers
Jets over Steelers***
Raiders over Patriots***
Dolphins over Colts***
Falcons over Buccaneers***
Bills over Ravens***
Bears over Vikings***