With Grimes In, Can Virginia Match Stanford & Florida With 13 NCAA Event Wins at One Meet?

10/03/2024 12:15 PM

By Braden Keith on SwimSwam

With the addition of Katie Grimes to the University of Virginia’s already-loaded roster this season, the Cavaliers picked up a potential 50-point NCAA scorer and another leg for their 800 free relay as they march onward toward what seems to be another inevitable NCAA team title.

While the win seems in hand (barring a disaster), the bigger questions about historical context still linger.

A fifth-straight title will match the run of the Stanford women from 1992-1996 as the most-dominant run in women’s NCAA Division I history. It will also match Auburn (who won five titles in six seasons in the 200s) for fourth on the all-time list among NCAA programs.

But there are even bigger questions I think are worth asking.

For example, can they match the record for most NCAA titles won by a team in a single season, which currently sits at 13 by the Florida women (in the 1982 and 1988 seasons) and the Stanford women (in the 1993 and 2018 seasons)?

The most recent performance of that was a team that included both Katie Ledecky, and Simone Manuel, with an all-time great college swimmer like Ella Eastin and an Olympian Brooke Forde serving as some of the best “third fiddles” the sport has ever seen.

This Virginia team has that kind of depth, but with the addition of Grimes, they also have that kind of breadth. Their best win results so far are 11 event titles in each of the last two seasons.

Winning 13 events is no small feat, especially without a diver likely to win titles. While Lizzie Kaye has brought First Team All-America results to Virginia diving and further elevated them, it would be tough for her to get past Aranza Vazquez of UNC, among others, to win titles.

That would mean that Virginia would need to win 13 out of 18 swimming events to match the record.

If the Virginia coaches and athletes prioritize that goal, I think it’s doable. But that would require, for example, Alex Walsh to drop the 400 IM: an event in which she’s the three-time defending NCAA Champion. That would sound like a crazy suggestion anywhere else, but she dropped the 200 fly last year as the defending runner-up.

But the more likely scenario, for me, is that Katie Grimes does a day 4 double – again, if the Cavaliers want to chase this piece of history. The women’s 1650 free and the 200 fly are relatively-far apart on the final day schedule. A swimmer of Grimes’ caliber should be able to do both. While the 200 fly has some good swimmers in it (Emma Sticklen as a 5th year, maybe getting a little Bob Bowman training in, could put up something special), Grimes’ best time of 1:52.28 from a lowkey Sectionals meet in December 2022 would put her 2nd among all returners.

Besides inserting herself as a heavy favorite in two events where Virginia had limited title prospects, the 500 free and 1650 free, she also gives them a very good leg in the 800 free relay, which is the only relay that Virginia didn’t win at NCAAs last year. They finished 4th in 6:51.41, almost three seconds behind Florida.

Florida lost their #2 leg Isabel Ivey, while Virginia lost their #3 leg Ella Nelson. Depending on how the Cavaliers use their resources (like shifting Maxine Parker to the 800), Grimes’ best of 1:42.90 could be the difference-maker there. She’s a no-doubt leg for this relay, as she seems like an unlikely choice for Virginia’s 200 medley relay (unless they get creative for the backstroke leg?).

At any rate, when I run through the Virginia roster, I see 12 events where the Cavaliers are favorites; and then a 200 fly where there’s a big choice to make and the 800 free relay as the best bets to tie the record.

There are then three other events where the Virginia women have an outside chance, but I wouldn’t bet on it. In the 200 free, Aimee Canny would have to take out Grimes’ former club teammate Bella Sims, among others. In the 100 back, Reilly Tiltmann was only 12th at NCAAs last year, but her finals time was just .8 behind the top returner Isabelle Stadden, and her best time was faster than Stadden’s runner-up swim. And in the 100 breast, Emma Weber will face a tough field with the likes of Mona McSharry and Kaitlyn Dobler, but some things cleared out with no Jasmine Nocentini, no Anna Elendt, and no Lydia Jacoby. After Weber made a surprise U.S. Olympic Team in June, she’ll be riding a big wave of confidence going into her junior season.

I see the ceiling of this team as 16 wins, with a floor of 10 (if Bella Sims finds her footings at Florida as a sophomore, Grimes’ favorite status is up for grabs).

Possible Virginia Wins, 2025 NCAA Championships

Past 13-Win Performances

Note that Florida’s 1982 13-win meet was with an extra event, the 100 IM, 50 back, 50 breast, and 50 fly included that weren’t available at any other NCAA Championship meet aside from 1983.

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