Revisiting How The Relays Of The Men's NCAA Title-Contending Teams Compare To Each Other

12/20/2024 07:00 AM

By Sophie Kaufman on SwimSwam

In early November, commenter Willswim asked if someone could put together a chart comparing the relays of the teams contending for the men's NCAA title in March. We did just that even though we knew like Willswim said, there would still be a lot of movement to come.

Well, a big piece shifted in the last 24 hours as Olympic medalist Caspar Corbeauannounced he is joining Indiana as a mid-season transfer. It's huge news for the Hoosiers, who are in the midst of the fight for the NCAA title, as Corbeau not only adds firepower to a loaded breaststroke group but also brings sprint freestyle prowess.

Indiana isn't the only school that's seen movement on the relay front—midseason invites saw several key swimmers take big leaps that will make their program's relays more competitive at the big meet. Most notably, breaststrokers like Nate Germonprez, Julian Smith, and Yamato Okadomeall made improvements that will help their teams withstand the breaststroke strength Indiana has just added. Given all these changes, we thought that it would be useful to revisit the exercise we first took on over a month ago.

Tables are organized from fastest to slowest, left to right. Relay splits are highlighted. Flat start times for non-lead-off legs aren't filled and are noted with (FS).

200 Freestyle Relay

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Four of the five schools we're analyzing made improvements in this relay from November. Now, all five have an add-up faster than 1:15. The school with the most obvious improvement is Indiana. Mikkel Leeshaved some time off his fastest flying 50 freestyle, but the major improvement comes from Corbeau. Though he is primarily a breaststroker, he also showed speed on the sprint freestyle relays while an upperclassman at Texas, and that skill is going to help the Hoosiers stay competitive in the sprint freestyle relays, where they cede ground to Florida, Arizona State, and Cal.

Texas is also weak in the sprint freestyles compared to the other NCAA title-contending teams. The Longhorns have their high-powered mid-season transfers arriving in Chris Guilianoand Ksawery Masiuk, but Camden Tayloralso shaved a few hundredths off his best relay split.

For Cal, freshman Lucca Battaglinisplit sub-19 seconds at the Minnesota Invite, bringing the Golden Bears' fastest add up below 1:14 seconds, joining Florida and ASU. For the Sun Devils, Ilya Kharun's lifetime best and Patrick Sammon's sub-19 relay split at midseason gets the team within .12 seconds of Florida.

Currently, it doesn't seem like Tennessee has all the pieces needed to get involved in the fight for the top five at NCAAs, but their sprint freestyle relays—highlighted by Jordan Crooksand Gui Caribe—are some of the fastest in the league and will disrupt these programs.

400 Freestyle relay

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Cal maintains its place at the top among these five teams in the 400 freestyle relay with an add-up time of 2:42.95, which is .45 seconds below the NCAA record. Florida maintains its second place with the same add-up time from November.

Taylor shaved a few hundredths at midseason to help Texas lower their fastest add-up, and Filip Senc-Samardzicmade a big leap with a 41.75 split at the Wolfpack Elite Invitational that improves ASU's time.

Corbeau's impact on this relay isn't as significant as the 200 freestyle relay, at least in the sense that it didn't vault the Hoosiers ahead of any of the four other teams. The Hoosiers' add-up is about a second slower than ASU's, the next slowest team. However, it is still helpful, as if they want to contend for the title, the Hoosiers need to maximize the relay points they score.

800 freestyle relay

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Thanks to Rex Maurer's exploits at the Texas Hall of Fame Invite, the Longhorns have jumped over Cal, the defending champions and NCAA record holders, by almost two-tenths. The quartet of Luke Hobson, Chris Guiliano, Rex Maurer, and Coby Carrozzacombine for a 6:01.26 add-up, which beats Cal's 6:01.44. Both teams’ add-ups are faster than the NCAA record.

Other than that, the rankings in this event have remained status quo. Arizona State remains a distant fifth in this race, though adding Jonny Kulowto this relay does improve their time. The team used Kulow on this relay at their tri-meet against Cal and Stanford, which is their fastest time from the season. It's still early, so it's unclear if he will be on this relay in the postseason. Using Kulow on all five relays—like he is in these tables—means he can only swim two individual events. That may be a worthwhile exchange for the Sun Devils, though they did leave Kulow off this relay at the NC State invite this fall.

The other team with some big decisions to make on this relay is Florida. This hasn't changed from November, as this is the relay where they most feel the absence of Macguire McDuff. Without McDuff, the big question is whether to use Josh Liendoon this relay or not. Right now, using Liendo on this relay is the team's fastest option, though they're surely hoping that someone Alex Painter will continue to improve quickly.

Using Liendo on this relay likely means putting Scotty Buffon to the 200 medley relay as the butterflier. At midseason invites, Liendo was on all five relays, though that almost certainly won't be the case at NCAAs, as the Gators will need him in three individual events.

200 medley relay

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The breaststrokers are the ones who have made the most improvements at midseason, as Nate Germonprezreached new heights in his individual events and relay splits. In the 200 medley relay, Germonprez dropped from a 23.30 to a 22.87 at the Longhorns' midseason invite.

Yamato Okadome's drop wasn't quite as dramatic in the 50 breaststroke, but he still made improvements, helping improve Cal's 200 medley relay. He made bigger strides in the 100 breaststroke—which we'll get to momentarily—but breaststroke was the Golden Bears' weak leg after graduating Liam Bell. Cal can't expect to immediately replace a 22-mid split with another, so any gains that Okadome makes during his freshman season are helpful.

While Corbeau is best known as a breaststroker, it isn't the obvious thing to put him on this relay in place of graduate transfer Brian Benzing. It's actually Benzing who has the faster relay split by a hundredth. This semester will be interesting as the two compete for the relay spot, and it may come down to a judgment call as to who to put on this relay on the opening day of the championships.

400 medley relay

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Again, it's the breaststrokers making a big impression in December. Adding Corbeau to this relay does help Indiana pick up a few vital tenths, as Corbeau's been as fast as 50.10. This one change vaults Indiana ahead of Cal and into second in these rankings behind only Florida.

As we mentioned last month, Julian Smithswam only two individual events at the NCAA Championships last year. He'll likely do the same again this year, as his SEC record of 49.98 in the 100 breaststroke makes it harder for the Gators to leave him off this relay. With his 49.98 flat start, the Gators—who already had the fastest add-up—improve to 2:57.77. Of course, much of the Gators' relay strategy relies on Chaney racing next term; if he doesn't, they will rely on Painter much more heavily.

Germonprez and Okadome improved in the 100 breaststroke as well. Germonprez split 50.25 on this relay, dropping over a second from his previous 51.39 relay split best. Okadome improved his relay split as well, but at the end of the Minnesota Invite, his flat start of 50.87 was faster than his relay split.

The Gators have opened over a two-second gap over the other schools on paper, with Indiana and Cal now close together at 2:59-low.

Guiliano is a huge boost for the Texas sprint relays, but the Longhorns also need him to race three individual events like the Gators do Liendo. This seems like the relay they will leave him off, as they have Luke Hobson. Hobson has shown himself capable of firing off a strong 100 freestyle relay split and has reached a new level this year after his performance at the 2024 Short Course World Championships.

ASU is the only school with an add-up above 3:00. However, they have plenty of room to improve on the opening half of the relay. Vergnes did not swim a lifetime best at midseason, and Dobrzanski was just off his fastest splits in both the 50 and 100 breaststroke.

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