2025 College Swimming Previews: #1 Virginia Women Eyeing Historic Five-Peat

10/02/2024 11:25 AM

By Charlotte Wells on SwimSwam

It's that time of the year again. SwimSwam will be previewing the top 12 men's and women's teams (and then some) from the 2024 NCAA Championships. Follow along with the College Swimming Preview Channel. Want to read even more? Check out the latest edition of the SwimSwam magazine. 

#1 VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

Key Losses: Jasmine Nocentini (51 NCAA points, 4 NCAA relays), Ella Nelson (41 NCAA points, 1 NCAA relay), Abby Harter (13 NCAA points)

Key Additions: Claire Curzan (Stanford transfer – free/back/fly), #4 Leah Hayes(IL – free/breast/IM), #5 Anna Moesch (NJ – free/back/fly), #11 Bailey Hartman (CA – free/fly), #12 Katie Christopherson (GA – breast/IM), BOTR Elise Clift (TX – free), Kayleigh Duffy (VA – sprint free), Aspen Gersper (FL – free/fly/back), Alena Lotterer (CA – diving), , Emma Redman (VA – IM/breast), Charlotte Wilson (CO – back/fly), Jessica Buntman (FSU transfer – diving)

Returning Fifth Years: Alex Walsh (60 NCAA points, 4 NCAA relays), Maxine Parker (12.5 NCAA points, 4 NCAA relays), Anna Keating (11 NCAA points)

GRADING CRITERIA

Over the years, we've gone back and forth on how to project points, ranging from largely subjective rankings to more data-based grading criteria based on 'projected returning points.' We like being as objective as possible, but we're going to stick with the approach we've adopted post-Covid. The "stars" will rely heavily on what swimmers actually did last year, but we'll also give credit to returning swimmers or freshmen who have posted times that would have scored last year.

Since we only profile the top 12 teams in this format, our grades are designed with that range in mind. In the grand scheme of college swimming and compared to all other college programs, top 12 NCAA programs would pretty much all grade well across the board. But in the interest of making these previews informative, our grading scale is tough – designed to show the tiers between the good stroke groups, the great ones, and the 2015 Texas fly group types.

• 5 star (★★★★★) – a rare, elite NCAA group projected to score 25+ points per event
• 4 star (★★★★) – a very, very good NCAA group projected to score 15-24 points per event
• 3 star (★★★) – a good NCAA group projected to score 5-14 points per event
• 2 star (★★) – a solid NCAA group projected to score 1-4 points per event
• 1 star (★) –  an NCAA group that is projected to score no points per event, though that doesn't mean it's without potential scorers – they'll just need to leapfrog some swimmers ahead of them to do it

We'll grade each event discipline: sprint free (which we define to include all the relay-distance freestyle events, so 50, 100 and 200), distance free, IM, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly and diving. Use these grades as a jumping-off point for discussion, rather than a reason to be angry.

Also, keep in mind that we are publishing many of these previews before teams have posted finalized rosters. We're making our assessments based on the best information we have available at the time of publication, but we reserve the right to make changes after publication based on any new information that may emerge regarding rosters. If that does happen, we'll make certain to note the change.

2023-2024 LOOKBACK

Last season saw the Cavaliers continue their dominance in the pool as UVA's women extended their conference win streak to five straight Atlantic Coast Conference Championship titles and brought home their fourth consecutive NCAA Championship victory.

Virginia's victories came by no small margin either, as they won NCAAs by almost 100 points (scoring 527.5) and ACCs by nearly 500 points (scoring 1637.5).

Also of note is the fact that the Cavaliers saw six of their women compete at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris this past summer, so there is certainly no shortage of elite-level athletes on this team.

Leading UVA in scoring at both ACCs and NCAAs was the Olympic sister duo ofGretchen and Alex Walsh. Both athletes scored 96 points apiece at ACCs, securing three individual victories in their respective events and racing together on four of Virginia's winning relays. Alex won the 200 breast, 200 fly and 200 IM, while Gretchen won the 50 free, 100 free and 100 fly.

Jasmine Nocentini claimed the conference title in the 100 breast and was the runner-up in the 50 free and 100 free. She followed that up with similar performances at NCAAs, securing the victory in the 100 breast and placing 3rd in the 50 free and 4th in the 100 free, scoring an impressive 51 points.

Another key contributor for the Cavaliers last season was Ella Nelson, who racked up 41 points at NCAAs. A breaststroke and IM specialist, she placed 3rd in the 200 breast, 5th in the 400 IM and 7th in the 200 IM, as well as helping UVA to a 4th-place finish in the 800 free relay. It was a strong performance after racing the exact same lineup at ACCs a few weeks prior, where she won the 400 IM and was the runner-up in both the 200 breast and 200 IM.

Also racking up the points were Aimee Canny (22) and Elizabeth Kaye (18). Canny posted a 4th-place finish in the 200 free and 10th-place finish in the 200 breast and joined Nelson on the 800 free relay, while Kaye brought the points on the diving board, finishing 8th on the 3-meter and 10th on the 1-meter.

It was unquestionably a successful campaign for the Wahoos under the continued leadership of head coach Todd Desorbo, who is entering his eighth season at the program's helm, but the team's newest additions will certainly have big shoes to fill as the team graduated some of its top scorers in May.

Sprint Free: ★★★★★

Led by Gretchen Walsh, Virginia's women were a dominant force in the sprint freestyle events, especially in the 50 and 100 free. UVA scored nearly 100 points across all three events at NCAAs last season and looks to be in a good position to rack up nearly the same amount this year.

Walsh came away victorious in both the 50 and 100, bringing home a crucial 40 points for the Cavaliers to give them a significant edge over the competition in the sprint free discipline. She notably set American Records in both events, firmly establishing herself as a sprinting powerhouse and one of the toughest individuals to beat in college swimming.

Walsh's 50 free time of 20.37 was the only sub-:21 performance of the meet, and her 100 free time of 44.83 was 1.4 seconds faster than runner-up Katharine Berkoff.

Two other key contributors in the 50 and 100 were Nocentini and Maxine Parker; both swimmers qualified for the 'A' final in the 50, with Nocentini placing 3rd in a time of 21.10 and Parker placing 7th in a time of 21.74.

Virginia's women don't have quite as much depth in the 200 free, as only one swimmer made it back for finals at NCAAs. Canny, who is a junior this season, placed 4th with a best time of 1:42.33; her closest teammate was Cavan Gormsen, who finished 23rd in a 1:44.35, which was right on her best time.

Walsh and Parker will both be returning this year, which will be critical for UVA's performance in sprint freestyle. While Nocentini is likely going to be a tough loss for the team, as she was a massive player not just in sprint freestyle but also the relays, newcomer Anna Moesch should help alleviate some of that pressure.

The first-year Cavalier was ranked #12 in the high school class of 2024 and is poised to be a huge asset to the Virginia women. With personal best times of 21.73/47.11/1:43.55 in the 50/100/200 free, Moesch would have qualified for finals at NCAAs in all three events; she would have even been fast enough for the 'A' final in the 100 free.

Aside from bridging the loss of Nocentini in the 50 and 100, Moesch would make a huge difference in the 200 free if she races it at NCAAs. Seeing as Canny was UVA's only finalist in the 200 last season, if Moesch did manage to make it into at least the 'B' final, as her time indicates she could, she would help secure a few extra points for the Wahoos.

Claire Curzan who transferred from Stanford to UVA last year, will also be a new asset for Virginia. Curzan did not compete for the Cavaliers during the 2023-2024 season, but she raced at the 2023 NCAA Division I Championships while swimming for Stanford the year prior.

Curzan’s best time in the 50 free (21.50) would have ranked 5th at last season’s championship, meaning she should be in a strong position to land in the ‘A’ final this year if she ends up racing the event.

Moesch is the only first-year who seems to be a lock to appear in the finals, but UVA has also brought in a handful of other freshmen who have some potential to leapfrog their way in if they can pull off some major time drops, such as Bailey Hartman and Aspen Gersper.

Distance Free: ★★★

Contrary to their dominance in the sprint freestyle events, distance freestyle is one discipline where the Virginia women lack depth.

The team was certainly stronger in the 500 last season, with Gormsen leading the pack. She placed 5th at NCAAs in a personal best time of 4:35.37, which was also the fastest time of the season among Virginia's women’s team.

Gormsen was the only Cavalier to score in the distance events at NCAAs. Canny just narrowly missed out on the final, placing 17th in a time of 4:39.11. The time was a few seconds off of her best (4:36.26), which she posted at the Tennessee Invitational earlier in the season; that time would have propelled her into the A final alongside Gormsen.

UVA's next fastest 500 freestyler last season was Sophia Knapp, whose season and personal best time of 4:40.26 launched her into 3rd place at the ACC Championships. Like Canny, she did not deliver quite the same performance at NCAAs, instead finishing 51st in a time of 4:45.55.

The team looks to be in slightly better shape for the 500 this season, thanks to the addition of Hartman. She would have placed 3rd in the event with her best time of 4:33.72, making for a powerful duo between her and Gormsen. And with both Gormsen and Canny returning this season, UVA could end up seeing three swimmers in the A final at NCAAs in the spring.

The 1650 was a bit of a blow to UVA's overall dominance, and it looks like it is going to be about the same this year. The Cavaliers did not see anyone score in the event at NCAAs last season; Knapp posted a season-best time in her race (16:12.47), but she and Gormsen placed 31st and 32nd overall.

Gormsen's time of 16:12.97 was over five seconds off her ACCs winning time (16:07.50), but even that performance would have only bumped her up to 23rd. Her lifetime best of 15:57.20 would have scored a few points, but she has not posted a time like that since 2022.

Backstroke: ★★★★★

UVA's top-scoring backstroker at NCAAs last season was Reilly Tiltmann, who placed 10th in the 200 back (1:51.80) and 12th in the 100 back (51.29). She was also the only Cavalier who managed to final in either event at the meet, although Carly Novelline, Tess Howley and Izzy Bradley also contested the events.

Novelline placed 20th in the 100 with a 51.69 and 32nd in the 200 with a 1:54.36, both season-best performances for her. Bradley finished 40th in the 200 back with a 1:55.04, which was just a few tenths off of the season best that she posted at the Cavalier Invitational, and 41st in the 100 back with a 52.89.

Posting a personal best in the 100 back at NCAAs was Howley, who placed 27th with her time of 51.99.

Of the returners, Tiltmann will likely lead the way in scoring again this season, although Novelline could sneak her way into the finals if she can manage to shave a tenth or two off of her time; only .14 separated Novelline and the 16th-place finals qualifier.

One key new addition in the backstroke discipline is without a doubt Curzan. In 2023, Curzan won the 200 back in a time of 1:47.64 and placed 3rd in the 100 back with a time of 50.08.

Her personal bests are just slightly faster than those times (1:47.43 and 49.46), which would have made her the victor in the 200 and the runner-up in the 100 at last season’s championship.

It’s likely we see Curzan swim both backstrokes at NCAAs, which could make this a five-star squad.

None of the other new arrivals quite have the times to score points in the backstroke events yet, and the races are so close that they are not particularly close to qualifying for finals either. This could of course change over the course of the season if we see any massive improvements or surprise changes, but at the moment Tiltmann is the only swimmer who seems to be a lock to final in these events.

Ironically, Tiltmann scored high enough in both the 100 and 200 that even as the only one scoring NCAA points in backstroke, she still brought home enough points to give UVA a 3-star rating in this discipline.

Breaststroke: ★★★★★

Don't let the five stars fool you: that rating comes almost exclusively from UVA's projected performance in the 200 breast.

Virginia had five swimmers score points in the 200 breast at the 2024 NCAAs; four out of those five are returning this season, and two out of those four were Paris Olympians.

Alex Walsh led the campaign by winning the 200 in a time of 2:02.07, a full two seconds ahead of Tennessee's Mona McSharry. Nelson took 3rd with a 2:04.80, while Anna Keating was 8th in a 2:07.32, Canny was 10th in a 2:07.34 and Emma Weber was 15th in a 2:08.13.

Nelson will be a key loss to make up for, seeing as she secured 16 points with her performance, but thankfully for the team that will be the only gap to fill in this event.

While one of the returners, such as Keating or Canny, will likely be looking to fill those shoes this season, freshman Katie Christopherson will certainly help bridge the gap a bit. A breast and IM specialist, she was ranked #1 in Georgia and entered her first season with UVA with a best time of 2:07.81, which would have scored 4 points at NCAAs.

Christopherson's best time would have even been faster than Weber's swim at NCAAs, although neither Weber nor Keating turned in their best performances in the 200 breast at the meet (their best times are 2:07.08 and 2:06.73, respectively). Either way, UVA has insane depth in the 200 breast and should have no trouble scoring highly in the event again this season.

Conversely, the team may well struggle a bit more in the 100 breast this season. Only Nocentini and Weber managed to score in the event; Nocentini won in a time of 56.09 and Weber placed 11th with a best time of 58.39. And with Nocentini no longer on the team, Weber is the only one on the roster currently projected to final this year.

Butterfly: ★★★★

With Gretchen Walsh in the 100 fly, UVA has been able to quickly rack up the points and stars in the butterfly discipline.

Walsh won the 100 fly in a time of 47.42 at the 2024 NCAA Championships, taking first by over two seconds and setting a new American Record in the process.

Three other Wahoos appeared in the event, but none of them managed to make it back for finals; Novelline placed 22nd (51.60), Abby Harter placed 30th (51.86) and Maggie Schalow placed 42nd (52.33).

Harter graduated in May, but Novelline and Schalow are both returning to the roster this year, so there is always potential for them to improve their results this season. Walsh is currently the only lock in the event, but given her margin of victory she should have no trouble securing a significant amount of points for UVA.

Adding Curzan to the roster will secure even more points for the Wahoos if she ends up racing the event. Curzan finished 4th in the 100 fly at the 2023 championships in 50.09, but her lifetime best is 49.24. Either way, both times would have ranked 2nd behind Walsh, giving UVA a nice boost in the points. Curzan could also end up racing the 50 free instead, avoiding a double with the 100 back.

The Virginia women had a bit more depth in the 200 fly; Howley posted a 4th-place finish (1:52.41), and Harter turned in a 6th-place finish (1:52.49), both personal best times for the pair.

UVA could potentially see two swimmers in the finals again this season. Hartman comes to the team with a best time of 1:54.82, which would just narrowly have snuck her into the B final to secure a point or two. If she can manage to improve her performance between now and the end of the season, then the chances of seeing both Howley and Hartman in the finals of the 200 fly become even greater.

IM: ★★★★★

In a similar vein to last season's results, UVA's performance in the IM discipline this season looks like it might be carried by just two swimmers: graduate student Alex Walsh and freshman Leah Hayes.

To no one's surprise, Walsh won both the 200 and 400 IM at the 2024 NCAA Championship, adding to her growing collection of gold medals from the meet. Her times of 1:49.20 and 3:55.97 placed her solidly ahead of the competition, and she is certainly poised to stay in that position.

Nelson was the other key factor in the IM events at NCAAs; she placed 6th in the 400 (4:04.33) and 7th in the 200 (1:53.65), racking up a combined 25 points for the Cavaliers.

In somewhat of a coincidence, Hayes' top times in the events (1:53.57/4:03.05) are almost right on Nelson's and would have placed her 6th in both events at NCAAs. This will go a long way in mitigating the impact of losing Nelson and ensures that UVA will bring home right around the same number of points in the IM discipline this season.

The team could even see a bit of an extra boost, as Christopherson is right on the cusp of edging her way into the final of the 200 IM. Her best time of 1:55.46 would have placed 17th at NCAAs last season, but with some swimmers graduating and new ones coming in, it will be interesting to see where she falls this season.

Diving: ★★★

Diving looks to be one discipline where UVA could see a significant improvement in scoring this season. At NCAAs last year, Kaye was the team's only diver competing. While she still managed to rack up a decent amount of points, placing 8th in the 3-meter diving and 10th in the 1-meter, the fact that UVA has added two new divers who could potentially score to their roster will be a major asset to the team.

Joining the Cavaliers as a graduate student is Jessica Buntman, who previously competed for Florida State University in the same conference as UVA. At the 2024 ACC Championships, Buntman placed 18th in the 1-meter diving (232.70), 21st in the 10-meter (192.45) and 28th in the 3-meter (217.60).

Despite not competing at NCAAs last season, Buntman's top scores would have placed her in the finals in the 1-meter and 3-meter events, as her personal bests are 274.80 and 292.20, respectively.

Meanwhile, freshman Alena Lotterer will also be a top scorer for UVA throughout the season and at NCAAs. Her best score on the 1-meter for six dives is 487.35, which would have won the event at NCAAs by well over 100 points, and she was a two-time California state diving finalist.

Adding Buntman and Lotterer to the mix with Kaye should ensure that UVA scores well across the 1-meter and 3-meter events, helping to balance out the fact that the team does not appear to have any divers who excel at the 10-meter event.

Relays: ★★★★★

Note that the grading system doesn't align perfectly for relays as double points.

Relay grading system:

• 5 star (★★★★★) – 31+ points per relay event
• 4 star (★★★★) – 22-30 relay points per event
• 3 star (★★★) – 12-21 relay points per event
• 2 star (★★) – 5-11 relay points per event
• 1 star (★) – 0-4 relay points per event

The Cavaliers held a tight grip on the relays at the 2024 NCAA Championships, winning four out of the five relay events over the course of the meet.

Key figures in these races were Alex and Gretchen Walsh, Nocentini and Parker, all of whom were on four relays. Also helping to bring home a championship title in the 200 medley relay was Novelline, who raced the fly leg.

The only relay in which UVA did not come away victorious, and in fact missed out on a medal altogether, was the 800 free relay. The squad of Canny, Alex Walsh, Nelson and Tiltmann placed 4th in a time of 6:51.41, just behind Stanford.

With so many repeat relay swimmers on the roster last season, UVA only lost two of their top relay swimmers in the form of Nelson and Nocentini, and seeing as the pair did not race on the same relays at NCAAs, the team won't be as hard-pressed to fill those open spots.

UVA shouldn't have too much trouble filling out the freestyle relays, especially with the addition of Moesch and Curzan on the team. Moesch’s times are right up there with Parker and Nocentini, so it wouldn't be a shock for her to find her way onto both of the shorter relays, and her time in the 200 free (1:43.35) is currently the closest to matching Nelson's relay split (1:42.37).

Additionally, Curzan split a 20.98 on the 200 free relay at the 2023 NCAA Championships which, had she swam on that same relay for UVA in 2024, would have been second only to Walsh’s split of 20.23. She has also previously split a 46.83 on the 400 free relay and has a best time of 47.23 in the 100 free, which would help fill the void left by Nocentini in that race.

The biggest concern looks to be finding someone to replace Nocentini in the breaststroke legs on the 200 and 400 medley relays. She split a 25.72 on the 200 medley and a 56.34 on the 400 medley, and none of the newcomers on the team can quite match those times just yet.

As the other top-performing sprint breaststroker on the team, Weber seems the most likely to fill that spot, although her times were still a few seconds off of Nocentini's last season. Junior Zoe Skirboll was also not far behind Weber and Nocentini, meaning she could also be in contention for a spot on the relays. UVA has so much well-rounded depth in all of the strokes that even with the loss of Nocentini, they should still be able to defend their titles in the relays fairly easily.

Total Stars: 35/40

2024-25 Outlook

While UVA definitely lost a few key contributors at the end of last season, the vast majority of the team's top scorers are returning this year, meaning they are in a very strong position to defend their NCAA title again.

With names like Alex and Gretchen Walsh, Anna Keating, Emma Weber, Maxine Parker, Reilly Tiltmann and Cavan Gormsen on the roster, there is no doubt that UVA has a supremely well-rounded team that can expect to score in nearly every event.

And in the events where they don't score as high, they've already proven they can rack up an impressive amount of points in the others to make up for those lower-scoring ones.

There are a lot of fresh faces on the team this year, and while many of these new athletes are not at the same caliber as the veterans just yet, there is easily room for development.

Some of the freshmen to keep an eye on right from the start are Anna Moesch, Bailey Hartman, Leah Hayes and Aspen Gersper, as each of them is already projected to score at NCAAs. As the season gets underway, we'll be able to see how the team is shaking out this year and if it looks like they will be holding onto their #1 ranking.

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