UFC Atlanta predictions
Yesterday at 14:00
Kamaru Usman, it's been a while.
602. The number of days since the 38-year-old most recently fought.
819. The number of days since Usman last fought at welterweight, the division he reigned over from 2019-2022.
1,029. The number of days since Usman last held UFC gold.
1,316. The number of days since Usman's last win.
Now. Usman makes his return in the main event of UFC Atlanta, where he takes on Joaquin Buckley, one of the welterweight division's hottest fighters. In Usman's absence, Buckley has soared alongside a new crop of contenders, winning six straight fights, knocking off the likes of Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson, and Vicente Luque, and rising to the No. 7 spot in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings.
A changing of the guard could be in order, with Father Time likely having plenty to say about Usman's quest to climb back up the rankings. Few would question that Usman is one of the three best welterweights ever. Whether that counts for anything Saturday night remains to be seen.
In the co-main event, two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas looks to keep her own title hopes alive as she continues to grind away at 125 pounds. Like Usman, she has a streaking contender in front of her in Miranda Maverick, once a blue-chip prospect and now a veteran on the cusp of cracking the flyweight top 10. She can also shake up the MMA Fighting Pound-for-Pound rankings if she upsets Namajunas, currently No. 13 on our list.
Also on the main card, striking specialist Edmen Shahbazyan looks to KO Andre Petroski, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt takes on Raoni Barcelos, and undefeated prospects Mansur Abdul-Malik and Oumar Sy face veteran tests.
What: UFC Atlanta
Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta
When: Saturday, June 14. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
A few years ago, it would have been laughable to suggest Joaquin Buckley could defeat Kamaru Usman. But this game moves at light speed and it's easy to favor the more active Buckley over a 38-year-old that has spent the past couple of years podcasting more than fighting.
Just looking at his past two fights, though, Usman is still pretty good, right? After a predictably slow first round, Usman gave the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev a hell of a scrap, and he wasn't out of sorts in his championship rematch with Leon Edwards either. There are remnants of prime Usman in there.
Are remnants enough to beat a white-hot contender actually in his prime? As fun as some of his middleweight appearances were, Buckley was always meant to return to welterweight and the move has paid off in every possible way. He's fast, he hits hard, and he can wrestle when he needs to. More importantly, he can counter-wrestle.
Usman and Buckley will have plenty of physical, gnarly clashes in a fight that is a battle of wills as much as skill. You have to imagine Usman's focus will be on taking Buckley down, though he'll have plenty of well-earned confidence in his standup as well. I'd just be concerned for Usman there with Buckley likely beating him to the punch more often than not.
I'm leaning Buckley, mainly because Usman's time off has me concerned and I'm not convinced he can neutralize enough of Buckley's offense to throw him off his game. Buckley wins a competitive five-rounder.
Pick: Buckley
Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick
There's a similar story being told in the co-main event. Rose Namajunas isn't approaching 40 like Usman, but she's been fighting at a high level almost since the start of her career in 2013. Were her losses to Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot just bad style matchups, a case of Namajunas just being too small, or is there reason to believe "Thug Rose" just isn't the fighter she used to be?
Miranda Maverick will put all those theories to the test. She'll have a strength advantage over Namajunas and almost definitely employ a steady diet of takedowns. Namajunas has never been a push-over when it comes to defending grappling though, so such a strategy could end up frustrating Maverick more than her opponent.
On the feet, Namajunas is far more polished and that's where I expect this bout to play out. Maverick has made great strides in all departments and at 27, I still think she has a chance to be a future champion, but the version of Namajunas she fights Saturday is still a notch above her level.
Namajunas by decision.
Pick: Namajunas
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski
What am I missing here?
Is this not yet another case of Edmen Shahbazyan winning a fight and then being rewarded with a grinding grappler? And yet he was a 2-to-1 favorite heading into fight week. I don't get it.
Admittedly, I also picked against Shahbazyan when was given a layup matchup against Dylan Budka in February, but that's because I'd seen Budka tackle people before and assumed he'd utilize that strategy. He didn't and Shahbazyan looked great, putting Budka down in 94 seconds.
But all Andre Petroski does is take people down and make things ugly, which is exactly the sort of tactic that has troubled Shahbazyan so many times in the past. He's going to shoot and grab and push Shahbazyan against the fence and he won't stop until Shahbazyan is on his back. Then the pressure is on Shahbazyan yet again.
All that said, Petroski is not known for having an iron chin, so there's a good chance Shahbazyan just catches him, adds another knockout to his highlight reel, and strings together consecutive wins for the first time since 2019 (!). I've just been burned too many times by "The Golden Boy" to pick him with any confidence.
Pick: Petroski
Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos
We can all agree we're a lot more comfortable seeing Cody Garbrandt on the senior circuit of the bantamweight division as opposed to being used as cannon fodder for up-and-coming fighters. I'm still not picking him to beat Raoni Barcelos, though.
There's certainly a scenario where Garbrandt is on the money and he just lights Barcelos up on the feet. If there's one thing Garbrandt still has, it's hand speed and KO power. It's everything else that's concerning.
Barcelos hasn't scored a knockout in ages, but he can touch up Garbrandt's chin and if he gets ahead early it won't go well for the former champion. He could also take Garbrandt out on the ground, just like Deiveson Figueiredo did. There just aren't many paths to victory for Garbrandt outside of Barcelos losing his mind and brawling, which would be incredibly fun, but unlikely.
I have Barcelos finishing Garbrandt via strikes in the first or second round.
Pick: Barcelos
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage
Trap game?
Mansur Abdul-Malik has been a heavy favorite in all of his UFC fights and you can understand why. The dude looks fantastic on the scale and so far the in-cage results have been promising. He's more force than technique at the moment, which works given his level of competition so far.
This is where it gets tricky, though. Cody Brundage has the profile of a developmental talent, but he's proven to be a sticky wicket for a lot of fighters that thought they'd have an easy night in the octagon with him. The experience gap here cannot be ignored. If Abdul-Malik has not made significant strides in between fights, he's at serious risk of losing his undefeated record.
I'm not brave enough to pick Brundage, but I would warn fans to keep their expectations realistic when it comes to Abdul-Malik. He's 27, he's heading into his ninth pro bout, and he's only been a pro since 2021. Let's give him time.
Pick: Abdul-Malik
Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy
This is a big step up for Oumar Sy, but also a crossroads fight for Alonzo Menifield, a once-ranked light heavyweight now struggling to regain that form. At 37, it only gets harder for Menifield.
Sy's game plan is simple. He'll engage in the striking only as long as he has to before an opening for a takedown presents itself. Expect plenty of grind-y sequences against the cage as Sy and Menifield attempt to outmuscle each other.
Menifield needs only one shot to put Sy down, but it's been awhile since we've seen "Atomic" consistently string together offense, especially when his opponents are in his face. I thought Menifield would roll over Julius Walker last time and that fight was disturbingly close.
I don't know what Sy's upside is in this aging division, but Menifield is one veteran he should get by.
Pick: Sy
Preliminaries
Rodolfo Bellato def. Paul Craig
Michael Chiesa def. Court McGee
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Kris Moutinho
Jose Ochoa def. Cody Durden
Ricky Simon def. Cameron Smotherman
Phil Rowe def. Ange Loosa
