UFC Vegas 96 predictions: Caio Borralho to freshen up the top of the middleweight division with a win over Jared Cannonier
23/08/2024 16:01
This coming Saturday, the UFC returns to the Apex after landing in Perth last week, with a middleweight clash between soaring contender Caio Borralho and former title challenger Jared Cannonier.
Caio Borralho faces the toughest test of his career thus far as he takes on the UFC veteran Jared Cannonier in his first main event bout during his UFC tenure so far.
Let’s get straight into our main card predictions for the event.
Edmen Shahbazyan (13-4) vs Gerald Meerschaert (36-17) – Middleweight bout
Opening up the main card is a middleweight bout between the former highly regarded prospect of the division, Edmen Shahbazyan, and UFC veteran Gerald Meerschaert.
Still only at 26 years old, ‘The Golden Boy’ is hoping to regain some momentum with back-to-back wins for the first time since 2019. Shahbazyan now trains at Xtreme Couture, head coached by one of the best in the game, Eric Nicksick.
Ultimately, this is an extremely favorable matchup for Shahbazyan who should be beating ‘GM3’ relatively comfortably. Shahbazyan will be the faster and more powerful striker and should have the tools to stay out of the way of Meerschaert’s submission threat.
Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan via KO
Neil Magny (29-12) vs Michael Morales (16-0) – Welterweight bout
Although Neil Magny is long in the tooth, he is undoubtedly Michael Morales‘ toughest test to date, considering his plethora of experience and the ‘gatekeeper’ reputation he has formed for himself.
In ‘The Haitian Sensation’s’ last bout, he derailed the hype of Mike Malott by finishing him in round three of their fight in Canada.
Morales, though is slightly more highly regarded than ‘Proper’ Malott. Still undefeated at 16-0, the 25-year-old continues to impress against gradually better strength of competition. Magny will undoubtedly give him looks in this fight that he likely has never seen, but the Ecuadorian is extremely well-rounded.
Morales has the ability to either outstrike or just out-control Magny in this matchup, and I’m predicting the latter.
Prediction: Michael Morales via decision
Kaan Ofli (12-2-1) vs Mairon Santos (13-1) – Featherweight bout
At just 24 years old, Mairon Santos is still developing inside the Octagon and he takes on Kaan Ofli in the Ultimate Fighter featherweight finale.
Santos’ lone MMA loss came against fellow UFC fighter, Dan Argueta and it’s worth noting that the Brazilian did previously compete at both lightweight and bantamweight.
The 24-year-old was scheduled to make his UFC debut last year against Sean Woodson but was removed from the bout because of visa issues – probably for the best considering how good Woodson has looked.
I think Ofli may be the slightly more well-rounded fighter at this point in their careers, and I can see ‘Genghis’ Kaan picking up the decision victory.
Prediction: Kaan Ofli via decision
Robert Valentin (11-3-0, 1NC) vs Ryan Loder (7-1) – Middleweight bout
The Ultimate Fighter middleweight finalists Robert Valentin and Ryan Loder clash on this weekend main card, and unfortunately, I can’t say I’m massively excited about either of these guys getting a contract.
Valentin is the more dynamic and powerful striker in this matchup, with Loder’s bread and butter being his wrestling.
I’m banking on the fact that Valentin is going to be able to catch Loder before he gets any sort of wrestling gameplan going.
Prediction: Robert Valentin via knockout
Angela Hill (17-13) vs Tabatha Ricci (10-2) – Strawweight bout
This is actually an extremely intriguing matchup when you consider the recent form of both fighters. Angela Hill has hit somewhat of a career resurgance, whereas Tabatha Ricci is 1-1 in her last two, with both fights being a split decision.
Ricci is a submission threat, but is also a fast striker. Her striking arsenal is more basic than what ‘Overkill’ Hill’s is, however, I would give her the speed advantage in this matchup.
The issue Ricci has here, is that she is unlikely to get Hill out of there, and the last thing she wants is fighting a close fight against the 39-year-old.
Although I give Hill the striking advantage as she is more expansive and comfortable in the exchanges, I do think Ricci’s speed may be enough for her in this fight to slightly edge. She is very unlikely to be able to get Hill down to the ground, but if she does manage to, she should be able to accumulate some control time.
Prediction: Tabatha Ricci via decision
Jared Cannonier (17-7) vs Caio Borralho (16-1-0, 1NC) – Middleweight bout
A win for Caio Borralho here would really spice up the top of the 185lb rankings. Jared Cannonier is hanging onto his number five ranking, while Borralho is currently ranked just outside of the top 10 at rank 12.
The Fighting Nerd has been immensely popular since his 2021 wins on the Contender Series, and now he has the opportunity to put himself in the middleweight title picture after just six UFC wins.
The Brazilian has faced some solid striking competition on his way to this matchup, picking up decision wins over the likes of Abus Magomedov and Arman Petrosyan. Of course, ‘The Natural’ is a dominant wrestler and grappler, and looks to get the takedown where he control his opponent on the mat.
Against ‘The Killa Gorilla’, though, I don’t think he’s going to have easy success in that department as Cannonier boasts pretty solid takedown defense, despite it only being at 61%.
Having said that, Borralho has showcased a pretty solid striking game to back up his relentless grappling and mixing those two things in together, I think he will have some good success in this fight.
Despite that, I am not willing to count out Cannonier even though he is likely towards the tail end of his career at 40 years old. I just think Borralho’s skillset being solid everywhere will give Cannonier too much of a puzzle and we will see a new fighter debuting in the top five of the rankings come Monday.
Prediction: Caio Borralho via decision
