UFC Vegas 96: 'Cannonier Vs Borralho' Predictions
23/08/2024 14:31
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 96 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024) on ESPN and ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 96 features a middleweight main event between Top 15 title contenders Jared Cannonier and Caio Borralho, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the strawweight showdown between Angela Hill and Tabitha Ricci, check out Andrew Richardson's "X-Factor" breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 96 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest "Cannonier vs. Borralho" odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For UFC Vegas 96 live results and play-by-play click here.
185 lbs.: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
Jared "Killa Gorilla" Cannonier
Record: 17-7 | Age: 40 | Betting line: +200
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5'11" | Reach: 77" | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.62 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.19 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 0.47 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 61%
Current Ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Nassourdine Imavov
Caio "The Natural" Borralho
Record: 16-1, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: -245
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6'1" | Reach: 75" | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.91 | Striking accuracy: 60%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.06 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 1.99 (63% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 76%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Knockout win over Paul Craig
Jared Cannonier turned 40 back in March but you certainly wouldn't be able to tell based on his physical gifts. It's hard to draw conclusions on where he's at in his combat sports career after his controversial loss to Nassourdine Imavov at UFC Louisville back in June. Was it an early stoppage? Absolutely. Was Cannonier in all kinds of trouble before the finish? No doubt about it. What isn't known is whether or not "Killa Gorilla" had a rough day at the office. Maybe Imavov was just a bad matchup or found the opening he needed. There is talk of Cannonier falling apart but in order to subscribe to that theory, we have to overlook his one-sided ass kicking of Marvin Vettori in June 2023, which followed a win over former middleweight champion Sean Strickland the year before. Assuming Cannonier — a former heavyweight — is just as dangerous as he was against "The Italian Dream" we still have to account for the fact that he sometimes falls flat and underperforms, like he did against Israel Adesanya at UFC 276; so yeah, predicting a Cannonier fight presents its challenges.
"Sometimes for me, being so high in the rankings, being so close to another title shot, I think I put a little bit of pressure on myself," Cannonier told MMA Junkie. "There was always conversations with randoms like, 'Title shot next.' I was focusing more on what could be, as opposed to what was next. Not to say that I wasn't focused on my opponents or focused in camp or focused on my fight. It feels like there's been a weight lifted off me not having to worry about the implications of this fight. Not to say that there aren't bad implications if I lose. Not to say that I'm not concerned about the dangers that each of these contests present. But I'm planning to just go in there and instead of trying not to lose, focus more on doing my thing and getting that win."
Cannonier has 12 finishes in 17 wins, 10 by way of knockout.
"I think he's going to be in trouble even if he does get me down, because he's not going to be able to keep me down," Cannonier continued. "And if he ends up on the bottom, it's not going to be too good for him down there. So I've got all the confidence in my ground game. I don't know why people think my ground game isn't good. I haven't been submitted in the UFC. I haven't been submitted in my career. When I was green I fought Glover Teixeira and I spent a lot of time underneath him and didn't get tapped. And I was green as far as my grappling goes back then. I'm much better now. If you guys are thinking of taking me down, you're more than welcome to try."
Caio Borralho cut his teeth on Dana White's "Contender Series" back in late 2021 but needed two appearances at the APEX proving ground to land a UFC contract. Since then, the Brazilian has been off to the races, racking up six straight wins while breaking into the Top 15 of the middleweight rankings. That said, his road to the top has been mostly highway miles and Cannonier represents a major step up in competition. Of the six fighters "The Natural" has defeated under the UFC banner, none of them are ranked at 185 pounds and two of them have since been released by the promotion. To be fair, we can't punish Borralho for how matchmakers Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard book him but he's still got work to do if he wants to be taken seriously as a middleweight title contender, and that starts with a strong performance this weekend in "Sin City."
"I think it can go either way (decision or finish)," Borralho said at the UFC Vegas 96 media day. "It just depends on how prepared he is and how much he wants it. At 40 years old, let's see how much he wants to stay in the position that he is and to go again for the belt and something like that. I think he's a very experienced guy, very explosive and has power in his hands. He knows how to take the fight where he wants it to go. Definitely an experienced guy. He's faced a lot of tough opponents. All respect to Jared, but it's my time now."
Borralho has just two finishes under the UFC banner.
"I'm prepared — I worked my ass off for this fight, and I think I deserve this victory," Borralho continued. "Let's just see how prepared he's going to come, and see how prepared he comes for me. I'm going to push the pace, I'm going to make the rhythm high at all times and let's see how he behaves in the fight. It all depends on him and if he came very well-prepared. I'm prepared to knock him out or finish him because I have the ground game, and he doesn't have that much, so let's see how Jared comes."
Cannonier can be a dangerous striker and his success on the feet typically depends on his level of aggression. It also helps that he's got knockout power, which means Borralho can't take as many chances on the feet. Fortunately for "The Natural," he's got a punishing ground game that is likely to penetrate Cannonier's mediocre takedown defense. A five-round fight gives "Killa Gorilla" 25 minutes to land the kill shot, assuming he remembers to throw it, but I think Borralho is too smart to silver-platter his chin. In addition, he's more well rounded on offense and has more ways to win, leading me to believe he catches Cannonier during a transition and finishes what Imavov started.
Prediction: Prediction: Borralho def. Cannonier by technical knockout
115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Tabitha Ricci
Angela "Overkill" Hill
Record: 17-13 | Age: 39 | Betting line: -110
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 11 DEC
Height: 5'3" | Reach: 64" | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.38 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.86 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 0.80 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 76%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Submission win over Luana Pinheiro
Tabitha "Baby Shark" Ricci
Record: 10-2 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -110
Wins: 1 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5'1" | Reach: 61" | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.28 | Striking accuracy: 37%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.94 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 2.99 (35% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 77%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Split decision win over Tecia Pennington
Angela Hill is a great example of how to have a long and successful career in UFC without ever coming close to a title shot. That said, her recent run — four out of five with a knockout victory over Luana Pinheiro — has put her within striking distance of the Top 5. Hill got her start on Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) back in early 2014 and the secret of her success has been activity, as well as reliability. Over the last decade, "Overkill" has never fought less than twice per calendar year and has often competed four times within a 12-month span. Not surprisingly, Hill holds multiple UFC records at strawweight including total fights (24), total wins (11), total strikes landed (2151), and significant strikes landed (1839). She's also got five post-fight performance bonuses, four of them "Fight of the Night."
"It's going to take a lot of convincing for people to really get behind the fact that I could potentially fight for the belt eventually, despite my age or any wins and losses I have in the UFC," Hill said at the UFC Vegas 96 media day. "It's all a matter of putting together a strong portfolio in the last couple of years, and I think I've been able to do that. I'm just focusing on the fight ahead of me and making sure that every time I'm out there I'm focusing on the present and in the moment, and not thinking too far ahead."
A victory on Saturday night would give her three straight wins for the first time in four years.
"I'm just hoping I eventually get that shot," Hill continued. "If I don't I think I'll be able to retire pretty happy with what I've accomplished, but that's the main goal, work my way to the top and see what happens. I feel like I can beat anyone, it's just a matter of coming in with the right mindset, training hard, and being ready that day. I feel like I can do that with anyone, it's just a matter of putting that on paper and actually showing up and doing what I think I can do."
Tabitha Ricci migrated to UFC back in early 2021 after five straight wins on the regional circuit, three of which ended by way of knockout or submission. Matchmakers did her no favors in her Octagon debut, pairing Ricci against French "Beast" Manon Fiorot, a fight that sank "Baby Shark" in the second stanza. Undaunted, the Brazilian roared back to win five of her next six, which includes her decision win over Tecia Pennington at UFC St. Louis last May. Standing just 5'1" with a 61" reach, Ricci has to rely on her aggression in most fights, much like former champion Jessica Andrade, and part of her attack includes a punishing wrestling game that averages three takedowns per fight. Hill is a competent wrestler in her own right, but got taken down three times in her loss to Mackenzie Dern and another three times in her defeat opposite Virna Jandiroba. If Ricci can maintain that same pressure — not unreasonable across a three-round contest — Hill could find herself handcuffed for most of the fight.
Prediction: Ricci def. Hill by decision
Don't forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 96 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 96 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+preliminary card matchups, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN/ESPN+at 10 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 96 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized "Cannonier vs. Borralho" fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ lineup click here.
