UFC Vegas 80 predictions
07/10/2023 14:00
Grant Dawson just has to stay the course and he should be good to go for a title shot in 2024.
As if anything in MMA ever goes so smoothly.
First, he has to get past the venerable Bobby Green at UFC Vegas 80, no easy task even for a hulking, undefeated contender like Dawson. Then he likely has to book a fight against a top 10 opponent, which is another factor that is anything but guaranteed given how loath the best lightweights are to fight backwards in the rankings. Then he has to hope that whoever is holding the belt is actually there to defend it and not pointlessly chasing a champion vs. champion clash that no one is asking for.
There's a lot of work for Dawson to do even if he's victorious this Saturday, is what we're saying.
But Dawson—No. 11 at 155 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings—hasn't lost in the UFC yet and despite a few shaky moments in the cage—and on the scale—if he keeps on winning, there's only so long that he can be denied his crack at the gold.
In other main card action, middleweight prospect Joe Pyfer fights Abdul Razak Alhassan, Alex Morono meets Joaquin Buckley in a welterweight striking battle, lightweight veterans Drew Dober and Ricky Glenn clash, and Alexander Hernandez drops down to featherweight again to face Bill Algeo.
What: UFC Vegas 80
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Oct. 7. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Bobby Green vs. Grant Dawson
Thinking about this matchup, the first thing that comes to mind is Bobby Green's loss to Islam Makhachev. Now, Green took that fight on short notice, so he wasn't as well-prepared as he could be, and Makhachev isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to Grant Dawson. But for the first time, we saw Green completely dominated by a wrestler and that gives us an idea of how Dawson will go about attacking "King."
Dawson has to exercise caution, because he can't just dive in for a leg and assume that Green will crumble. Green has a long history of making grapplers earn their money, so the upset is there for the taking if Green lands a counter. This is what's so tricky about where Dawson is in the lightweight rankings: He's clearly a contender, but until he gets to prove it against another contender, it's nothing but tough matchups that can derail him if he has an off-night.
Fortunately for Dawson, youth and time are on his side. I just can't see Green avoiding takedowns and ground-and-pound for five rounds. Dawson's style of grappling offense is just pure aggression, a style that even the seasoned Green won't be able to survive. I'm predicting that Dawson wears Green down and hands him a rare submission loss.
Pick: Dawson
Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
I'm curious to see how Joe Pyfer's walk-forward-and-swing-ask-questions-later style works against the hard-hitting Abdul Razak Alhassan. In the past, Alhassan hasn't dealt well with pressure and he has a bad habit of falling into a lull and letting his opponent dictate the action. He has the power to make Pyfer think twice, but he also can be bullied into timidity.
That will be doubly true if Pyfer mixes the martial arts, which he hasn't had much reason to do since his recent opponents have crumbled under his fists. Alhassan's defensive grappling isn't as advanced as his offense, so if Pyfer wants to take some steam out of Alhassan early, he'll test his takedown defense.
On the other hand, Pyfer hasn't shown to be the most patient fighter and it's just as well if he continues his habit of walking opponents down and just blasts Alhassan's face off.
Pick: Pyfer
Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley is where he belongs at welterweight. His speed and explosiveness were assets at 185 pounds, but at some point the size and strength differential was too much. At 170, he's still in the upper tier of athletes and he doesn't have to worry about being outmuscled anymore.
The UFC matchmaking Buckley with Alex Morono tells me that they share my confidence in him. Morono has been one of the toughest outs of the division for the past few years. If Buckley can get past him and look good doing it, he'll be fast-tracked up the rankings.
Morono is a meat-and-potatoes kind of fighter. He's not going to wow you out of the gate, but once he's in there he can match his opponents wherever they take the fight. It might sound like a backhanded compliment to say nothing he does is spectacular, but steady and solid has taken him a long way. He has more than enough skills to outwork Buckley and finish him if he sees an opening.
I can't get past that speed of Buckley though. He won't force anything against Morono, which might cause him to fall behind on the scorecards early. But when the moment comes, Buckley will seize it and add another knockout to his highlight reel.
Pick: Buckley
Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn
Could this be our upset special of the card?
A reasonable assumption would be that Drew Dober will overwhelm Ricky Glenn with power-punching and end this one quickly. We've seen what Dober can do against any opponent that stands with him. Glenn has pop in his hands too, but a slugfest with Dober is ill-advised, to put it lightly.
What Glenn has in his favor is a striking style that emphasizes his height advantage and a good chin. Don't let his recent knockout loss fool you, Glenn has been in there with some sluggers and lived to tell the tale. He knows better than to square up that chin for Dober to take a shot at it. And if he can mix in some ground work, that will frustrate Dober even more.
Glenn's going to have his dancing shoes on Saturday, but I think he can pull it off. Stick and move, chip away at a charging Dober, and be ready with the reaction shots. Can't be that hard, right?
Glenn by decision.
Pick: Ricky Glenn
Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo
Remember what I said about Buckley finding a home in a new division? I'm not so sure that Alexander Hernandez has done the same thing.
Hernandez is determined to make a new life for himself at 145 pounds, which isn't the worst idea even if his debut against Billy Quarantillo was less than inspiring. On the other hand, that's only one fight and Quarantillo is an excellent featherweight, so we shouldn't hold that result against Hernandez too much. The fact that he bounced back with a short-notice win over lightweight lifer Jim Miller and still decided to drop down to 145 pounds again is a tad confusing, but here we are.
Bill Algeo is barely a step below Quarantillo in terms of level of competition. "Señor Perfecto" is a perfect mid-tier featherweight, which as far as we know is the range where Hernandez also belongs. He uses his range well, he's fundamentally sound, and he's tough to finish. On paper, this isn't just a matchup designed to showcase Hernandez.
I'm feeling a trip to splitty city here, with Algeo getting the nod and forcing Hernandez to really contemplate what division he wants to compete in.
Pick: Algeo
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Nate Maness def. Mateus Mendonca
Kanako Murata def. Vanessa Demopoulos
Aoriqileng def. Johnny Munoz
