UFC 306 Paths to Victory: How Sean O'Malley can fend off Merab Dvalishvili and retain the bantamweight title

09/13/2024 04:00 PM

Saturday night at Sphere in Las Vegas, Sean O'Malley puts his bantamweight title on the line against No. 1 Contender Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 306.

Can O'Malley retain his title, how can Dvalishvili become the new champion, and what are we most intrigued by in this matchup? Let's dive in.

Paths to Victory for Sean O'Malley at UFC 306

O'Malley is a fighter in the mold of Conor McGregor: a long, rangy striker with excellent timing and vision, and a penchant for countering. But while McGregor's game was built almost entirely around finding ways to detonate his left hand, O'Malley is a bit more diverse in his striking, and much more reliant on his kicking game, which may be one of the biggest factors this weekend.

O'Malley makes liberal use of front kicks, leg kicks, and teeps to the body, which serve as one of the building blocks of his offense. These kicks aren't just a scoring weapon on their own, but they help him establish his preferred long range and set up his punches and counters. But against Dvalishvili these kicks are a double-edged sword. Yes, they can help him establish the range he needs to be at, but a fundamental aspect of kicking is that it makes you more vulnerable to takedowns, which presents a problem.

O'Malley's path to victory this Saturday is extremely straightforward: keep Dvalishvili at range + defend takedowns = profit. Dvalishvili is willing boxer (arguably too willing) but his defense is toughness, which makes him a sitting duck if O'Malley can keep things standing. And O'Malley does have the tools to pull that off. The bantamweight champion is a solid defensive wrestler, made all the better at it through his ability to manage range.

While Aljamain Sterling got a lot of flak for not shooting many takedowns on O'Malley in their fight, the truth is he never had great opportunities to do so. O'Malley circled and pivoted his way around the cage, keeping as much distance between them as possible, making it so Sterling really only had desperate outside shots available to him. Shooting from six feet away is not a playbook for success for anyone and it's extremely likely that O'Malley's plan for Dvalishvili is very similar.

Paths to victory for Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306

Dvalishvili is the premier pressure-wrestler competing in MMA today. "The Machine" has a game built entirely around relentless, exhausting pace and pressure, and the best cardio in the sport, possibly ever. Add in a very stout chin and the combination makes Dvalishvili a nightmare for nearly everyone he faces, especially in five round fights. And so, as mentioned above, the path for Dvalishvili is straightforward: do what he does best.

Against O'Malley, Dvalishvili cannot engage in prolonged striking exchanges and hope to be successful. Dvalishvili is not incapable on the feet, but he's a far cry from impressive, and more importantly his defense is a huge liability. Dvalishvili is extremely hittable and thus far hasn't really been punished for it because he's very durable and can go to the wrestling when he gets tagged. But there's that old expression about playing with fire and Dvalishvili chooses to do so, eventually he's going to get burned.

That being said, Dvalishvili also cannot be afraid to strike with O'Malley. Again, striking shouldn't be his plan, but Dvalishvili is going to have to wade into the firing zone and eat some shots to get to his wrestling, or else he'll also be stuck shooting desperate attempts from too far outside, just like Sterling was. For Dvalishvili, the key to this fight will be finding the right balance.

Thing I'm most interested in seeing

While I normally look at possible X-factors that could be at play on fight night, this fight doesn't really offer much in that regard. So instead, I wanted to talk a bit about the first round, because in this fight, I think we will know who the winner is by how the first round goes.

On paper, Dvalishvili should be looking to drag this contest into the later rounds. Power fades the longer fights go on, so O'Malley becomes less dangerous, and Dvalishvili's legendary cardio can begin to takeover. However, I think Dvalishvili really needs to either win the opening frame of the fight, or at least set the tone if he wants to win.

If O'Malley comes out and keeps his long range and pot-shots Dvalishvili for the entire first five minutes, the fight is basically over. Not only will his confidence grow but Dvalishvili doesn't have a deep bag of adjustments to look to. It will just be more of the same until the final bell sounds or O'Malley lands a killshot.

Conversely, if Dvalishvili comes out and puts O'Malley to work right away, this fight is a wrap. O'Malley may have a few more tricks he could try to deploy if he loses the first frame, but at that point, his proverbial "power bar" will already be depleted. Dvalishvili is like the Juggernaut, and if he gets even the tiniest bit of momentum, he's going to run unstoppably over whoever he's fighting.

In this fight, the first round is a bellwether to the entire contest.

Prediction

Many people online have dubbed this fight "Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor 2.0" and while it's clever and not entirely untrue, I also don't think it's quite right. For one thing, the physical gulf between Khabib and Conor (heck, Khabib and every other lightweight) was VAST, and for another, Khabib is a substantially more dangerous fighter than Dvalishvili could ever hope to be. When Khabib got his hands on someone, they were going for a ride and then he was going to bash the soul out of them. When Merab grabs something, they go for a ride, and then another ride, and then another ride. It's not the same. Along the same lines, O'Malley may not be as dangerous of a fighter as McGregor was at his peak, but he is a more complete one.

Ultimately, this matchup is between a dynamic fighter with a good amount of depth to his game vs. a one-track fighter who lacks finishing skills. Could Dvalishvili pitch a shutout over 25 minutes and become the new champion? It's definitely possible. But I think the safer bet is that O'Malley never lets him get going and finds the finish.

Sean O'Malley def. Merab Dvalishvili via TKO (punches) — Round 3, 2:24