UFC 296 predictions
16/12/2023 14:00
For Leon Edwards, the stakes are as high as ever.
When 2023 wraps, Edwards will either be celebrating wins over Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, two of the best fighters in his division over the past few years, or he'll be having to explain how he let the braggadocious Covington beat him after sitting on the sidelines for the better part of the past two years. It's truly about to be the highest of highs or the lowest of lows for "Rocky."
Covington upped the ante even further at the UFC 296 pre-fight press conference, where he invoked Edwards' deceased father, enraging the welterweight champion. If Edwards wasn't fired up for this matchup, her certainly is now, but if the remarks put him even slightly off of his game, then Covington might have him exactly where he wants him.
While Saturday's main event is a grudge match, the co-main event title fight between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Brandon Royval is a rivalry of a different kind. Pantoja submitted Royval two years ago and won the flyweight title two fights later. Since then, Royval rebounded from that loss with three consecutive victories to earn a rematch with gold on the line. Simply put, as compelling as the headliner is, it's Pantoja vs. Royval that could still the show just based on the amount of skill involved.
In other main card action, undefeated welterweight Shavkat Rakhmonov takes on two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson, Tony Ferguson fights Paddy Pimblett in one of the most talked-about lightweight fights of the year, and Josh Emmett faces short-notice opponent Bryce Mitchell in a featherweight bout.
What: UFC 296
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Dec. 16. The card begins with a three-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card on ESPN2 and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting's Global Rankings)
Leon Edwards (1) vs. Colby Covington
Leon Edwards better not overlook the threat that Colby Covington presents. Take away all the childish trash talk and the over-the-top antics and Covington is still a dangerous welterweight contender.
Covington could wrestle his way to victory, he could also put out so much volume in the standup that Edwards simply can't match it. What Covington lacks in elite technique, he makes up for in incredible fitness. In a five-round fight, that always gives him a chance to take over as long as there's time on the clock. Can he finish Edwards? Doubtful. Can he outpoint him? Absolutely.
What we have to keep in mind though is that Covington is past the age 35 (closer to 36) threshold that has doomed many recent title challengers at welterweight and below. The lighter the division, the more contenders depend on athleticism to get where they need to go and as relentless as Covington is in the gym, he's still butting heads with Father Time. And Father Time is undefeated.
Edwards is also a superior striker, so it's not as if Covington can just walk forward and pepper him with punches without reprisal. The champ will be quick to counter and he'll focus on controlling distance, which will limit Covington's opportunities to advance. Covington may have gotten under Edwards' skin during fight week, but on fight night it's Covington who will experience frustration as he struggles to generate offense.
A statement will be made Saturday night and its Edwards who will stand tall after a showcase performance that sees him win four out of the five rounds. Covington did everything in his power to talk his way into this matchup, winning it is another story altogether.
Pick: Edwards
Alexandre Pantoja (2) vs. Brandon Royval (8)
I've often written that beating any opponent twice at the highest level of MMA is as difficult a feat as any in sports. That's even truer at flyweight, where the skill level is dizzyingly high and being in peak physical condition isn't just an asset, it's a requirement. Nowhere was this greater exemplified than in the Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo tetralogy, which was won by Moreno, but if they fought another 100 times I picture a 55-45 margin for the winning fighter at best.
All of this is to say that Brandon Royval is about to cap off the Year of the Raw Dawg by becoming the UFC's flyweight champion.
There's a lot that Royval can take away from the first Alexandre Pantoja fight. He was a tad too eager to battle Pantoja on the ground and he missed out some opportunities to score more on the feet. And, of course, he too easily entered grappling range where Pantoja is his most deadly. These are mistakes that Royval and his team can rectify.
Pantoja proved in his championship win over Moreno that he's as tough as they come and that he's no front-runner. Many have wilted under the pressure of the relentless Moreno, but Pantoja repeatedly found ways to fire back and walk out with a narrow split decision after 25 brutal minutes. Combine that resilience with world class grappling and it's easy to see why he currently has a title around his waist.
To keep it, he'll have to beat Royval again, which as I stated at the top of this section, won't be easy. I'm picking Royval to do a better job of avoiding and escaping trouble spots, while staying busy on the feet without overcommitting. After a couple of rounds of feeling Pantoja out, Royval will take a deep breath before the third, when he'll come out with maximum aggression and become the first fighter to finish Pantoja.
It's destiny.
Pick: Royval
Shavkat Rakhmonov (4) vs. Stephen Thompson (7)
Here's Stephen Thompson's path to victory: Keep it standing.
Revolutionary concept, I know, but the truth is that "Wonderboy" is still one of the toughest welterweights to beat in a pure striking match even as he makes UFC appearance No. 20. Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque? Handled them. Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns? Tough losses, but neither dared to stand with Thompson for long. That's respect.
If Shavkat Rakhmonov is smart, he'll follow the Muhammad and Burns blueprint and take Thompson down early and often. Rakhmonov is no joke on the feet, but why even risk losing a standup battle when he has such an obvious path to victory? The worst thing he could possibly do is allow himself to fall into the trap of wanting to beat Thompson at his own game and end up seeing his spotless record undone by hubris.
So this should play out as the odds suggest, with Rakhmonov playing the part of the massive favorite and running through Thompson with his wrestling. Unlike Muhammad and Burns, I expect Rakhmonov to end this one inside the distance. Let's say Rakhmonov by ground-and-pound knockout in Round 2.
Pick: Rakhmonov
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
When this matchup was announced, there was a vocal portion of the MMA community *cough* Shaun Al-Shatti *cough* that was repulsed by the notion that the UFC would line Tony Ferguson up to elevate a popular up-and-comer. The fact that said up-and-comer is Paddy Pimblett, a polarizing lightweight coming off of a disputed decision win over Jared Gordon, just twisted the knife a little further.
I'm here to say that Ferguson fans should expect a dispiriting result, though maybe not the dispiriting result they're dreading the most.
If anything, a Pimblett win will most likely resemble the dreary, one-sided decision losses that Ferguson suffered at the hands of grappling specialists Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. That's not to say that Pimblett is anywhere near that level, but he's an aggressive offensive grappler and he has a size and speed advantage over "El Cucuy." Skill-wise, you can argue that Ferguson still has more tools in the bag than Pimblett. It's taking advantage of those tools as he approaches his 40th birthday that is in doubt.
The flip-side to Ferguson being utilized as a supposed sacrificial lamb is that any burst of effective offense he musters will draw the most passionate crowd reaction of the night. Even given Ferguson's poor form of late, this is no layup for Pimblett and if Ferguson can summon a fraction of the skill that made him one of the lightweight division's most feared fighters, maybe he pull off the upset.
Realistically, I see Pimblett grounding Ferguson for three rounds and doing more than enough to win a convincing decision, but maybe not enough to convince Ferguson that it's time to hang up the gloves.
Pick: Pimblett
Josh Emmett (8) vs. Bryce Mitchell (12)
Josh Emmett has been dealt a wild card with this matchup. He was originally scheduled to fight striker Giga Chikadze, but a torn groin took Chikadze out and in stepped Bryce Mitchell, decidedly not a striking specialist. With the change, I'm assuming that Emmett and his team had to scrap whatever game plan they had for Chikadze and start from scratch as Chikadze and Mitchell share few similarities.
With about 10 days' to prepare for Mitchell, shoring up Emmett's takedown defense had to be a must. He's already proven that he knows how to use his own wrestling to stay on his feet, but he's yet to face someone as relentless as Mitchell. When all technique breaks down, Mitchell will stay in your face, improvise, and push through until your backside is on the mat. It's not always pretty, but it's damn effective.
I have faith in Emmett's takedown defense so I'm leaning in his direction for this one. I can't picture Mitchell coming in on short notice and winning with three rounds of grinding grappling. Emmett's defense will hold, he'll overpower Mitchell on the feet, and he'll stave off retirement talk for at least one more fight.
Pick: Emmett
Preliminaries
Dustin Jacoby def. Alonzo Menifield
Irene Aldana (6) def. Karol Rosa (7)
Brian Kelleher def. Cody Garbrandt
Casey O'Neill def. Ariane Lipski
Tagir Ulanbekov def. Cody Durden
Lucas Almeida def. Andre Fili
