Prates Vs. Magny Betting Odds, Prediction
11/09/2024 12:00 PM
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Carlos Prates and Neil Magny will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 9, 2024) at UFC Vegas 100 from UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Prates really is the perfect candidate to receive the Magny test. The Brazilian striker is an electric finisher that's quickly made a name for himself by winning three straight fights via knockout in 2024. He's slick and violent, but we really haven't seen him forced to defend takedowns for any length of time yet. Though his best days are behind him at 37 years of age, Magny lives to derail a hyped prospect. His combination of grit and clinch wrestling might just prove to be the perfect recipe in derailing Prates, or at the very least exposing some now aspects of the "Nightmare" skill set.
Let's take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Prates vs. Magny Betting Odds
- Carlos Prates victory: -800
- Carlos Prates via TKO/KO/DQ: -400
- Carlos Prates via submission: +800
- Carlos Prates via decision: +800
- Neil Magny victory: +550
- Neil Magny via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
- Neil Magny via submission: +1600
- Neil Magny via decision: +1100
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Prates Wins
Prates is a savvy, dangerous striker. A longtime Muay Thai fighter, Prates' experience and comfort on the feet is obvious. He's very skilled in the pocket and seems to excel at lining up huge connections, making use of a variety of weapons in the process.
Prates is the latest prospect to try to earn a Top 15 spot at Magny's expense, but he's far from the first. Fortunately for the Brazilian, that means there's a whole lot of tape available explaining how to defeat Magny and which pitfalls to avoid.
It starts with the low kick. Magny's defeats almost always involve his calf getting kicked to pieces. He wasn't good at defending them at his best, and age has only slowed his reaction. Several times, we've seen Magny taken apart entirely by calf kicks, and that feels like a reasonable ask for a Muay Thai fighter.
The obvious pitfall here is the clinch. How many fighters have we seen beat up Magny for a bit, get a little tired, then try to rest in the clinch? It backfires almost every time. Any time Magny tries to grab onto him, Prates should fire a single knee or elbow, then try to shove his opponent away with urgency.
How Magny Wins
Magny is the winningest Welterweight in UFC history and has built an incredible resume in his 12 years on the UFC roster. He's beat some seriously great fighters, usually on the strength of his conditioning and relentless clinch takedowns.
This is going to sound harsh, but it feels fair after recent performances: Magny is godawful when stranded at range. For such a long man, he has no idea how to fight at distance against opponents who can kick well. It almost feels like Magny is fighting his own build, trying to be a good distance striker like one would expect when in fact crashing into the clinch is his actual strength.
Magny cannot spend any time more than is absolutely necessary at distance with Prates, who is a certified sniper. Standing at range with Prates will only allow the Brazilian to kick him and build up a lead. I would much rather see Magny aggressive and pushing forward right away, even if that involves the risk of getting slept by a counter shot.
An aggressive Magny has a much better chance of landing in the clinch and exhausting Prates even if that path is fraught with danger. Conversely, a passive Magny will look more akin to a summary execution in which he is picked apart, broken down, and stopped brutally.
Might as well chance the one-hitter quitter counter given the alternative ...
Prates vs. Magny Prediction
Are the odds a little disrespectful? Probably. Magny has played the role of spoiler and pulled off the classic "veteran win" too many times to entirely discount the possibility against someone with just three UFC wins. Magny usually looks awful when he loses, it's true, but that doesn't mean he can't make the fight ugly given 25 minutes to work.
Extreme odds aside, I still don't favor him. Relatively small sample size or not, Prates looks like an elite striker and trains with one of the hottest camps of the year. He knows exactly what to expect from Magny, has the tools to knock him out, and is riding a serious surge of momentum.
There's reason to be somewhat wary, not reason to pick against "The Nightmare."
Prediction: Prates via knockout (-400)
