Noche UFC 306's best betting props, parlays and picks | O'Malley vs. Merab

12/09/2024 04:00

Noche UFC 306 is live this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event between Bantamweight champ Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. Check the odds for that 135-pound grudge match (and much more) right here!

Noche UFC 306, presented by Riyadh Season,goes down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) from inside the Las Vegas Sphere. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event has Sean O'Malley defending his UFC Bantamweight crown against number one contender Merab Dvalishvili. The co-main is Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3 for the UFC women's Flyweight title.

Also on the main card is Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics and Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne.

The "Prelims" headliner is Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont. The shortened prelims card also boasts Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng.

As always, there's lots to bet on this card and we've got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 306 Main Card Money Line Odds

Sean O'Malley (-130) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+110)

The big questions in this bout is how will Sean O'Malley handle the best takedown artist he's faced in his career and how will Merab Dvalishvili handle the best striker he's faced in his career?

Dvalishvili's status as best takedown artist is supported by his ridiculous 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. Though, his percentage is only 36%. He's a volume takedown artist and he doesn't get deterred from a stuffed shot here and there. Remember he attempted 49 takedowns against Petr Yan, succeeding on just 11 of those. But when you spam takedowns like that you only need a few to land to win rounds.

O'Malley's striking leads the division. It's as potent as it is accurate and it comes at a volume that is very hard to handle. He lands 7.63 significant strikes a minute and his accuracy is 61%. He only trails Umar Nurmagomedov in striking accuracy, but that number is inflated for the Russian by how much of his strikes are landed on the ground. What makes O'Malley's striking so special is how he's able to get his offense off without getting hit in return. His striking differential of 4.24, leads the division by far.

The best wrestlers O'Malley has faced were Aljiman Sterling and Petr Yan. Sterling went 0-2 on takedowns against O'Malley. The second of those attempts can be seen in the video below, at the start of round 2.

O'Malley showed great speed and balance to stay on his feet after Sterling seized upon his slip and attempted a single-leg takedown. That would be the last takedown attempt of the fight, since O'Malley KO'd Sterling shortly afterwards.

Against Yan, O'Malley had a tougher time staying on his feet. He was taken down six times on 13 attempts.

Check the 3:41 mark of the above video for the first of those, where Yan gets O'Malley pinned on the cage and then level changes to execute a double-leg takedown. On the 10:06 mark Yan lands another double-leg takedown. He does this despite Daniel Cormier saying that O'Malley should be able to defend it and that Yan would need to switch to a single leg. Yan scored another double-leg at the 15:10 mark.

Here's a handy video showing Dvalishvili's takedown repertoire, albeit from three years ago.

Dvalishvili does like the blast single-leg, a lot. But he's more than capable of the controlled double-leg we saw Yan succeed with over O'Malley.

I think O'Malley will be able to defend a lot of what Dvalishvili throws at him (especially takedowns which aren't double-legs against the fence). If he has one foot down, I like his chances of being able to hop out of trouble.

I also like O'Malley's chances of ending the takedown threat with his striking, as he did to Aljo. Dvalishvili has a great chin, but we know that because he gets hit. Henry Cejudo rocked him early in their fight. Dvalishvili has never been KO'd, but he's also never faced someone with one punch knockout power/timing like a prime O'Malley.

I think KOing Dvalishvili may be too big an ask, but I can see O'Malley hurting Dvalishvili enough that his takedown threat diminishes in the mid-point and later portion of the fight. And if those takedowns get lazy, I think O'Malley will be able to avoid them and continue to score points on the feet.

Prediction: Sean O'Malley via unanimous decision (+400).

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+120)

Alexa Grasso has dimmed the legacy of Valentina Shevchenko slightly over the past few years and tormented the former champion due to her ability to seize upon big moments in their fights. In their first affair this meant Grasso was able to pounce on a poorly conceived/executed spinning back kick to score a rear naked choke (see it here). In their rematch, which ended in a split draw, Grasso earned her points with the judges thanks to a knockdown and a close submission attempt.

Grasso should have lost the rematch. Her scorecards benefited greatly from an extremely generous 10-8 she was awarded by one judge in the fifth round. Whether it was fair or not, it's just evidence how dangerous Shevchenko's style can be to her own chances of winning. Shevchenko has dominated folks in the past and scored some wicked stoppages (remember what she did to poor Jessica Eye?). But she's also coasted through a fair few and she may have lost her belt sooner had Taila Santos managed to convert on her opportunities on the ground.

The odds are razor thin in this trilogy fight and they deserve to be. At this time of writing Grasso's line has moved shorter, putting her at -140 and pushing Shevchenko out to +120. If Shevchenko closes with plus odds this will be the first time that has happened since she fought Holly Holm, at bantamweight in 2016 (a fight she won). The only other time she had plus odds were when she debuted against Sarah Kaufman in 2015 (a fight she won). In her two losses to Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko closed at -115 and -135,

So unless you think Shevchenko is spent at 36-years-old you should be pretty intrigued about getting plus money on one of the greatest women's mixed martial artists ever.

I'm very tempted to place my coins with Shevchenko here... but... It's Noche UFC.

Valentina is cool as can be. And that's great most of the time. She doesn't let the occasion get to her. But she also doesn't let the occasion buoy her.

Grasso is more emotional (in a positive way) and I like her chances of growing into the occasion here and defeating Shevchenko not in spite of, but with thanks, to all the trappings that come with Noche UFC, the Sphere and the Riyadh sponsored salute to Mexican heritage.

She's not afraid to let her hands go against Shevchenko. Shevchenko has made a career on fighting gals who can't say the same. I fancy Grasso's chances of landing big punches in their exchanges. I think the power in her offense, and her desire to come forwards, will be what ultimately gets her the nod here.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso via unanimous decision (+350).

Brian Ortega (+155) vs. Diego Lopes (-185)

Since this fight fell through on the night of UFC 303, Diego Lopes' stock has risen and Brian Ortega's has fallen — as reflected in the odds. The odds were near even when they closed for UFC 303.

Lopes didn't look like a world beater against Dan Ige. But given the situation, I think he deserves credit for getting past a tough ultra-short notice replacement while shouldering all of the pressure of the bout.

My take on this match-up remains the same as the last time we discussed it. I think Lopes is better than Ortega on the feet and that they're even on the ground. Because of that I believe Lopes has more ways to win this fight, so I'm siding with him (and the bookies).

Ortega just gets hit too often to take him in this match-up. He uses his grappling to get out of those situations sometimes, but I don't think he'll find much respite with Lopes. I can see Ortega getting hurt in an exchange and then either pulling guard or going for a lazy takedown, only to get swept and then put to sleep.

He's only 33, but the damage he's taken, should have us considering him five years older than that. The wars he's been in have almost certainly taken years off his life (a phrase Spencer Fisher once used with me when talking about a fight he had with Josh Neer).

It's sad to not see much of a path forward for Ortega in the Featherweight division. If there is a way forwards, though, I doubt it involves Lopes.

Prediction: Diego Lopes via submission (+500).

Esteban Ribovics (+205) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-250)

Esteban Ribovics got the best win of his career last time out, starching Terrance McKinney with a head kick in about thirty seconds (see it here). That was his first finish in the Octagon since he graduated from the Contender Series in 2022.

Daniel Zellhuber was upset in his first fight post Contender Series. Trey Ogden was able to chew him up with leg kicks and earn a decision win. Zellhuber came into that bout as a -390 favorite. Since then he's beaten Lando Vannata and earned bonuses for his anaconda choke against Christos Giagos (see it here) and his fight of the night with Francisco Prado.

Zellhuber showed clean striking and a lot of toughness in that fight. Ribovics is coming off a flashy win here, but I think the UFC see this as a match-up that favors Zellhuber (someone I'm sure they'd love to craft into a big time draw).

Zellhuber has an eight inch reach advantage over Ribovics and I think that will be telling. Zellhuber has shown that he can be hit, his significant strike differential is just 0.8. Ribovics' differential is three times that. And Ribovic has shown he has KO power, though mostly against scrubs on the South American circuit.

I think Ribovics is a more dangerous opponent than the UFC might think he is. But I still think Zellhuber will be able to win this fight. I see him keeping this at range and winning another fun brawl.

Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber via unanimous decision (+125).

Ode Osbourne (+110) vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez (-130)

After a loss on the Contender Series in 2020, Ronaldo Rodriguez has been on a tear. He went 5-0 on the Mexican scene and then rejoined UFC in February for their Mexico City event. In his debut he was relentless in his pursuit of Denys Bondar before submitting him in the second round (see it here).

Ode Osbourne is 4-4 in UFC and, like Ribovics, feels like a guy who is making up the numbers. He's coming off back-to-back rear naked choke losses (to Jafel Filho and Asu Almabayev). His other two losses are KOs to Tyson Nam and Manel Kape (watch that here).

Osbourne will have a lot of size on Rodriguez, but I think he's going to struggle against the pressure and activity the much younger Rodriguez will bring. I think there's a chance Osbourne gets the unwanted hat-trick of RNC losses on Saturday. Though, Rodriguez has a great guillotine, too.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez via submission (+300).

UFC 306 'Late Prelims' Under Card Odds

Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Norma Dumont (Evens)

Irene Aldana has been given a moment to shine here. This could be bad news for her. Being the featured Prelim at the Sphere is a big deal and she might have her own short film or video package blaring across the walls of the arena. This pressurized environment has not served her well in the past.

The biggest opportunity of Aldana's career came in 2023 when she got to face Amanda Nunes for the Bantamweight title. This was a Nunes who already had one foot out the door. However, Aldana froze in that fight and acted like she didn't want to be there. In the end she was an easy last meal for The Lionness.

The previous time she lost was to Holly Holm. That loss was in 2020 on Fight Island, in her first ever main event. This was another fight where Aldana shrunk from the moment and seemed incapable of putting out the kind of effort she needed to compete.

Both those high profile losses came after Aldana scored big stoppage victories (away from the glare of the main event). In 2019 she floored Ketlen Viera with a left hook (see it here) and in 2023 she scored an upkick body shot KO over Macy Chiasson (see it here).

On her night, usually when she gets to fight in relative obscurity, Aldana has some of the best boxing in the division and is one of the few in her division to posses one-punch KO power.

Norma Dumont is more versatile than Aldana. She's a good striker, with a sanda background, and boasts a very good 66% striking defense and just 1.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Last time out she held Germaine de Randamie to just 16 significant strikes over three rounds. She also took De Randamie down on six of eight attempts.

Aldana is better at striking and takedown defender than De Randamie in general. But is she that good under the bright lights? I'm not so sure.

If the occasion gets to Aldana and she's timid, I think Dumont will be able to win a measured striking battle and also punctuate rounds with a takedown here and there.

Prediction: Norma Dumont via decision.

Ignacio Bahamondes (-105) vs. Manuel Torres (-115)

Manuel Torres earned a POTN bonus with his first round submission of Chris Duncan in February (see it here). That was his third post-fight bonus in a row, following his brutal elbow KO over Nikolas Motta (check it out here) and his right hook against Frank Camacho (see it here). Those three fights came after he won his Contender Series fight via TKO.

The Chilean Ignacio Bahamondes is coming off a head kick KO over Cristos Giagos (see it here). That followed a respectable unanimous decision loss to the in-form L'udovit Klein. Bahamondes also has wins over Trey Ogden, Rongzhu and Roosevelt Roberts (via wheel kick — see it here).

This could be a very fun fight and I don't think we'll need the judges.

Combined these guys land close to 20 significant strikes per minute. Torres is the more accurate, though, and that could be what makes the difference here. I think this one is going to end with both men exchanging and Torres being the one to land the last punch.

Torres is also the safer bet since he's shown a lot more desire and ability to take the bout to the ground (and finish fights there) when the opportunity presents itself.

Prediction: Manuel Torres via TKO.

Yazmin Jauregui (-550) vs. Ketlen Souza (+375)

Yazmin Jauregui a very big favorite here and it's easy to see why. The 25-year-old former Combate champion has looked great in her UFC career thus far, other than a 20 second KO at the hands of Denise Gomes last year (see it here). She was a -380 favorite in that fight. In February Jauregui rebounded from that loss to beat the gritty Sam Hughes via unanimous decision.

Ketlen Souza is a former Invicta champ, but she's yet to leave much of an impression in the Octagon. She lost to Karine Silva via a knee bar in her debut (see it here) last June. In April she rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Marnic Mann.

Souza is a heavy striker, but she's not particularly quick. This is another match-up made to fit the theme of the night and I think we'll see the Mexican fighter get her hand raised. Jauregui is too quick and too technical to get caught by Souza.

Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui via unanimous decision.

Joshua Van (-235) vs. Edgar Chairez (+190)

Joshua Van is coming in on short notice here for Kevin Borjas. We just saw Van get KO'd by a Charles Johnson uppercut at UFC Denver (see it here). Van was winning that fight, but still, I don't like someone coming back so soon after a stoppage loss. The bookies don't seem to mind, though.

Edgar Chairez came in heavy for his fight with Daniel Lacerda in February, which he won by triangle choke. That was a rematch of a Chris Tognoni botched fight from last September (see it here).

Despite the question marks over Van's fitness for this bout, he's still the better fighter and I think his activity and volume striking will be too much for Chairez.

Prediction: Joshua Van via unanimous decision.

Raul Rosas Jr. (-850) vs. Aoriqileng (+500)

Here's our biggest favorite on the card. Raul Rosas Jr. has been given the opening slot of Noche UFC 306 and I don't see how loses this. Vegas doesn't miss on these big favorites so please don't get tempted by Aoriqileng's +500 odds.

Aoriqileng has been submitted by rubes on the Chinese regional circuit. He's not going to be able to stop Rosas Jr. taking him down or slapping on a sub.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. via submission.

UFC 306 Prop Bets And Parlays

Here's a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday's UFC 306 card ...

Two pick parlay: Diego Lopes to beat Brian Ortega and Ronaldo Rodriguez to beat Ode Osbourne (+165)

I think Diego Lopes is on the rise and that he's catching Brian Ortega at a great time. Ronaldo Rodriguez is a really exciting fighter and he's been gift wrapped a journeyman here at the Sphere.

Alexa Grasso to win by Split or Majority Decision (+750)

Grasso vs. Shevchenko is a close fight. We've seen it before. And women's fights dispropriantely end in split and majority decisions. I don't think we'll get a finish in this one, so those +750 odds look pretty tasty.

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili - Point to be Deducted - YES (+2000)

Back with my favorite prop bet. It has to cash one day, right? We've come close in the past, but maybe the chaos of the Sphere will help us here. This event could be bonkers and there might be distractions abound for fighters, referees and judges. We might get some whacky stuff happen. This point deduction could happen if O'Malley grabs the fence or if he gets a little too pokey with his out-stretched fingers. Or perhaps it will come with Dvalishvili grabbing gloves or shorts. In order for this bet to work, though, referees need to actually punish fouls for once. Despite that this is still a fun one to root for on fight nights.

UFC 306 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 306 fight card, starting with the "Prelims" play-by-play right hereand followed by the "Main Card" play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPNNEWS/SPN+ with the "Prelims" scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 306: "O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili" news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.