Matt Brown explains why Jake Paul would beat Nate Diaz in MMA debut
28/11/2023 16:00
Jake Paul wants to fight Nate Diaz for his professional MMA debut, and at least one prominent UFC fighter believes that's a very favorable matchup for Paul.
During an appearance on the 2023 PFL Championship card on Friday, Paul doubled down on his request to face Diaz when he finally makes his move from boxing to MMA, which could happen by the end of 2024. PFL founder Donn Davis upped the ante while stating that he would pay Diaz a whopping $15 million purse to make the fight happen.
UFC welterweight Matt Brown absolutely believes Diaz should take that offer, but the Stockton star may not actually like the result in the fight.
"Jake Paul, I'm going to pick him to win," Brown said on the latest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. "I'm going to pick him to beat Nate Diaz in MMA."
Now that prediction might sound shocking, especially considering oddsmakers opened with Diaz as a 12-to-1 favorite to beat Paul in MMA after they went to a 10-round decision in their boxing match back in August.
Diaz, who challenged for the UFC lightweight title in 2012, is vastly more experienced than Paul in four-ounce gloves. Diaz owns 41 fights on his professional MMA résumé, however Brown believes there are plenty of advantages that actually favor Paul in that matchup.
"We already know he can outbox him," Brown said of Paul "When was the last time you saw Nate Diaz take someone down? But I don't think he'll be able to take him down, even if he tries to [take him down].
"He's way, way undersized. Jake Paul is so much bigger than him. I don't know what weight it will be at, probably 185 [pounds]. Nate's not a great wrestler, it's going to end up staying on the feet. What difference would it be [from their boxing match] if it stays on the feet?"
While Paul did get the better of Diaz in their boxing match, MMA offers a lot more weapons to use in the striking game, including elbows, knees, and kicks. That being said, Brown understands Diaz's style well enough to know that the Stockton native typically relies mostly on his hands, which is why he's often been touted as one of the best boxers in MMA.
Because Diaz already lost to Paul in a fairly one-sided boxing match, Brown just doesn't see a whole lot changing if they engaged in an MMA fight.
"First, Nate rarely throws elbows," Brown said. "Really doesn't throw kicks a whole lot. He's primarily an MMA boxer. His MMA style is he pressures you, he outboxes you and pressures you until you take him down or grab hold of him, which, that's what he wants. Now he can do his jiu-jitsu game. It's just a bad matchup. I wouldn't pick very many people to be able to do that, but I don't think Nate will be able to take [Paul] down and we already know what's going to happen on the feet.
"Jake will train for kicks and elbows and knees and all that stuff and they might have a little effect. But I don't see Nate finishing him with a kick or even really chopping him down or elbowing him. It's just not his style."
If the fight hits the floor, Diaz possesses a deadly submission arsenal, which accounts for 12 of the wins on his résumé. He also holds a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
That could become the biggest problem for Paul in a potential MMA fight against Diaz, but Brown says it's not nearly the deterrent that some might imagine.
"I think with the size and the athleticism, jiu-jitsu really isn't that hard to beat," Brown said. "It is MMA. There's all these crazy things that happen. Nate Diaz knows how get a fight to where he wants to go it. But when you're that much bigger and you're athletic, assuming that he has actually has been training MMA — I'm going off the assumption that he's been doing jiu-jitsu too already. I'm also making the assumption that he's already been doing wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He's not going to wait until that fight gets signed and do two or three months of jiu-jitsu while doing promo tours and all this s***. He's probably already getting ready.
"If you're the bigger, stronger, more athletic guy, it doesn't take that long to beat jiu-jitsu for the most part."
Outside of the physical attributes and just a working knowledge about MMA, Brown sees Paul's big fight experience in boxing as a great gauge for how he'll handle the pressure of fighting someone like Diaz in the cage.
It was actually one of the things that surprised him most about Paul when he first started competing in high-profile matchups against ex-UFC fighters like Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley.
"I do believe Jake Paul is very comfortable and used to being in front of people and isn't necessarily nervous about losing," Brown said. "I didn't think he would handle boxing as well as he did, but he handled it very well. His demeanor, his mindset, he looked like a seasoned boxer straight away. I thought that would play a big role even when he fought Ben Askren. Granted, I thought Ben Askren would train and actually be able to do something as a boxer. I was like, 'He's a world-class athlete!' Apparently, not so much. A world-class wrestler, not a world-class athlete. All love to Ben Askren.
"But we've seen in all of his fights, [Paul] doesn't come in unprepared physically or mentally. He is a performer. He is good at getting in front of people and performing. I don't think that's going to play as big of a role."
Just because he's picking Paul to win doesn't mean Brown thinks his fellow Ohio native would win in a shutout. Based upon the styles of the matchup, however, Brown expects Paul to hold enough advantages over Diaz to get the job done.
"[Jake Paul] just outboxes [him] by decision," Brown said. "I love Nate Diaz. I don't want to seem like I'm putting him down. I don't like saying it. I don't enjoy that I feel that way. I hope Nate Diaz wins and I would cheer for him. I will 1,000 percent root for him.
"I'd love to go train with him and coach him and be like, 'Wrestle this whole f****** camp, take this motherf***** down. Do f****** Imanari rolls, whatever you've got to do, pull guard, get this motherf***** to the f****** ground, because you already know you can't outbox him.' Do I think Nate Diaz will do that? I do not. That is the whole thing right there. I don't remember seeing a single fight where I've seen Nate Diaz shoot for a takedown. I do think it would be a fun fight. It will actually be interesting. It's more interesting than a boxing match."
