Kape Vs. Almabayev Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction
03/01/2025 12:00 PM
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight standouts Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., March 1, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC Vegas 103.
Kape is as frustrating as he is talented. One of the fastest men to ever step into the Octagon, "Starboy" is capable of tremendous knockouts and great wins. At the same time, he has an earned reputation for inactivity, a flaw that has cost him multiple winnable fights and delayed his title run. Almabayev was originally scheduled to face Steve Erceg and is instead stepping in for the injured Brandon Royval (details here).Undefeated (4-0) in UFC, the talented Kazakh wrestler suddenly has an opportunity to break into immediate title contention.
I'm optimistic that this main event will end up a great fight, but would still advise caution against high expectations. Either way, let's take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Kape vs. Almabayev Betting Odds
- Manel Kape victory: -218
- Manel Kape via TKO/KO/DQ: +180
- Manel Kape via submission: +1000
- Manel Kape via decision: +180
- Asu Almabayev victory: +180
- Asu Almabayev via TKO/KO/DQ: +1800
- Asu Almabayev via submission: +1200
- Asu Almabayev via decision: +250
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Kape Wins
Kape is a tremendous athlete who's turned his quickness and power into dangerous kickboxing. He does his best work on the counter, but there has been more of an effort in recent years to initiate exchanges and create his own offense.
At 31 years of age, it feels like now-or-never for Kape to put it all together and realize his potential. The man could be a champion! The bright side is that match up should draw out the best in him. Kape fights tend to be terrible when opponents hang back and don't really engage, but Almabayev tends to push a fairly high pace.
The danger here for Kape is that he never gets his hands going, stuck in the kickboxing or wrestling range. The easiest way to ensure that doesn't happen is to win the distance game. If he is actively kicking with Almabayev and countering his kicks with combinations, he should be able to outpoint the wrestler standing. Then, "Zulfikar" will be forced to engage more, leading him into Kape's counter punches.
Ultimately, Kape has some major athletic advantages here, he just has to find a way to impose them.
How Almabayev Wins
Almabayev is newer to the UFC scene, but at 31 years of age and 23 professional fights, the timing is right for an Almabayev title run as well. He's best known for his relentless wrestling, but Almabayev has proven he can hang on the feet as well.
If the crowd is booing, Almabayev is probably doing his job here, and that job is to frustrate Kape. He should take a page from the books of Pantoja and Mokaev, who spent a lot of time kicking at Kape and denying him the pocket. Through volume and tenacity, Almabayev can try to out-score Kape at distance.
The second half of the attack is the takedown. Kape is a strong defensive wrestler, but he has been controlled once dragged to the floor. If Almabayev can land some occasional control time while working his kicks and preventing any huge connections from Kape, that's a fairly proven recipe opposite the Angolan boxer.
Kape vs. Almabayev Prediction
After Kape vs. Mokaev, I swore to never get excited about a "Starboy" fight again. I still believe in his overall abilities and potential, however.
I'll keep it fairly simple: I don't think Almabayev is quite as good as Mokaev, who essentially fought Kape to an utterly even (and dreadfully boring) contest. His chain wrestling isn't as dynamic, nor is his top control as solid. He's more likely to engage Kape on the feet and walk into heavy shots as a result.
Plus, there's five rounds this time around. Kape can afford to sleep walk for a round or two, provided he eventually realizes he's the much better striker and takes advantage.
Prediction: Kape via decision
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 103 card right here, starting with the ESPN+ "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 103: "Kape vs. Almabayev" news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
