Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic prediction, pick: Is there ANY chance of a UFC 309 upset?

Yesterday at 01:45 PM

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 309 main event between heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic.

Jon Jones UFC 309 preview:

Staple info:

• Record: 27-1 MMA, 21-1 UFC
• Height: 6’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 248 lbs. Reach: 84.5″
• Last fight: Submission win over Ciryl Gane (March 4, 2023)
• Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+*UFC heavyweight champion
+ Former UFC light heavyweight champion
+ JUCO national wrestling title
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Creative and dynamic striker
^ Preternatural instincts and improv
+ Effectively dictates range
^ Teep kicks, oblique kicks, hand posts
+ Deceptively effective inside clinch
^ Superb hand-fighting /grip disruption
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
+ Always looks to secure rounds
^ Consistently comes on late

Stipe Miocic UFC 309 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 20-4 MMA, 14-4 UFC
• Height: 6’4″ Age: 42 Weight: 234 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: Knockout loss to Francis Ngannou (March 27, 2021)
• Camp: Strong Style Fight Team (Ohio)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC heavyweight champion
+ Golden Gloves winner
+ NCAA Division 1 wrestler
+ Regional MMA title
+ 15 KO victories
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid footwork
+ Good sense inside the pocket
^ Pulls and returns well
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Counters well off of inside parry
+ Solid takedown transitions
^ Favors head-outside singles
+ Good positional rides
^ Active ground striker

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic point of interest: Clash of styles

The main event for UFC 309 features a heavyweight title fight between two legends who are effective with different styles.

Despite being blessed with some natural gifts, Jon Jones' almost-unflinching computing of striking exchanges has helped him stay ahead of his contemporaries throughout the years.

Seldom will you see Jones throw the same sequence of strikes within the same minute or even round – unless, that is, he is trying to set up his opposition or walk them into something sinister. And with him being one of the most tried and true stance switchers in MMA, Jones can exercise a plethora of options available to him to help further his agenda.

Whether he's hiding behind hand posts or disrupting his opponent's approach with oblique kicks and body assaults, Jones is clearly not shy when it comes to utilizing his length. Still, I would also argue that Jones has proven he isn't reliant on it either.

Not only does Jones have the aforementioned abilities to navigate exchanges, but he also has made quiet strides in his boxing ability in an effort to help shore up the range that most of his opponents risk life and limb to maintain. Even against the breakneck pressure that Daniel Cormier brought to their second meeting, Jones was able to pivot or shift his way into counterpunches like never before in his career.

That said, Jones also has experienced his hardest shots when shifting in or out of this range and is not beyond getting himself crossed up in retreat – something that could prove costly against someone with the size and power of Stipe Miocic.

A Golden Gloves boxing winner before he even began his MMA career, Miocic was able to stand out among his contemporaries in the striking department. Although Mioicic's athletic ability and background in wrestling add an undeniable dimension to his game, it is the work that the champion does in small spaces that tends to make the difference.

Akin to a heavyweight version of Frankie Edgar, Miocic will steadily work behind a series of jabs and feints, stepping slightly off at an angle in search of his counters or follow-up shots. Moving just as well laterally as he does in and out, Miocic shows a good sense of the action inside the pocket, almost preternaturally pulling and returning his punches.

Whether Miocic uses his patented inside parries or slick step-offs to the side, his battering ram of a right hand is undoubtedly his hallmark. However, if Miocic isn’t careful, he could get more than he bargains for hand-fighting with someone like Jones.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic breakdown: Winning the wrestling

Considering both men’s bases and the arguable crux of their games, winning the wrestling will be paramount this Saturday.

Although Jones has elected to strike more and more in the latter years of his career, the former light heavyweight champion reminded the masses that he can still get things done on the ground against Frenchman, Ciryl Gane.

A JUCO national wrestling champ who initially cut his teeth as an aggressive clinch fighter, no one should be shocked if Jones elects to exercise his grappling edges – even against a fellow wrestler.

For example, in Jones' first fight against Daniel Cormier, a world-class wrestler and all-time MMA clinch artist in his own right, Jones was able to shut down his offense in close by utilizing creative wrist controls to disrupt the former double champion's game and open up his own.

Using his long frame to multitask inside the clinch, Jones can implement wrenching over-hooks (a la the ones that famously injured Glover Teixeira's shoulder), all while using his free hand to either strike or help secure wrist-feeds to his over-hooking hand. This intricate tie-up also allows Jones the leverage to come over the top with elbows regardless of whether he is still holding onto wrists.

I often reference Makhachev in relation to wrist controls, but Jon Jones has been popularizing hand fighting for some time.

Hand traps to elbows, overhooks that parlay into wrist-feeds (which setup elbows, knees and shoulder strikes), defensive wrist pins that open up takedowns: pic.twitter.com/bBgcDxP5Jm

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 1, 2023

For those who have not wrestled or grappled in some form, wrist control is the unsung gatekeeper of advancing position, as a solid hand-fighter can befuddle even the best of grapplers.

Thankfully for Miocic, he grew up wrestling and should be familiar with some of Jones’ tactics.

Coming up in Ohio as a ranked NCAA Division 1 wrestler at Cleveland State, Miocic has typically shown to scramble well when pressured. But more often than not, the American-born Croatian usually decides the wrestling terms in his fights.

Akin to other wrestle-boxers like Cormier, Miocic also uses reactive double-legs or snatch singles to combat pressuring opponents. Typically finishing his entries by snapping his opponents all the way down (almost like he's hiking a football), Miocic shows a solid top game that he can go to should he choose to follow the action to the floor.

From Miocic's shoulder pressure and short strikes from half-guard to his relentless positional rides, Jones could get caught in some ugly spots should he falter positionally or try and get too cute in transition.

That said, If Miocic allows Jones to secure any takedowns or dominant positions on the ground, then it will certainly be dangerous for the former champ given his getup tendencies opposite of what should be the superior submission wrestler in “Bones.”

Although Miocic seems near-impossible to hold down, he does tend to turtle hard while scrambling back to his feet.

Whether Miocic is swimming for a single to wrestle up or is utilizing the fence to stand, he offers a decent amount of exposure that many can get away with in the heavyweight division due to its lack of wrestlers and back-takers.

Not only does turtling briefly give your back, but it also exposes your neck to front-headlock attacks, both of which are positions that Jones is very competent from. This constant juxtaposition of transitional threats and positional battles will keep every scramble between these two entertaining as they are important.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the younger man, listing Jones -700 and Miocic +440 via FanDuel.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic prediction, pick

Between MMA gambler’s love for fading older fighters to the insane hype job Dana White is doing to promote this fight, seeing a betting spread this wide sadly doesn’t surprise me.

Akin to Floyd Mayweather, Jones has been selective about both his opponents and the terms of said contests for some time now (as he clearly sees the upside to fighting someone like Miocic at this stage of his career).

Aside from the fact that Miocic presents the wrestle-boxing archetype that’s traditionally brought out the best in Jones, the 42-year-old former champ has shown serious signs of wear in the latter stretches of his career.

Even before Miocic’s wars with Daniel Cormier and Francis Ngannou, the Ohio native took part in three straight fights that, even in victory, saw him face early damage and adversity against the likes of Junior Dos Santos, Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem. And by the time Miocic was through with his series with Cormier, it became clear, at least to me, that he wasn’t seeing shots nearly as well (which was something I pointed out ahead of his rematch with Ngannou).

Jones may not be as potent a knockout threat as the aforementioned names, but the former light heavyweight kingpin possesses a shot selection – particularly from southpaw – that could wreak havoc on Miocic from a stylistic perspective.

Whether we look at Jones’ second fight with Cormier or Miocic’s back-and-forth wars with Alistair Overeem and Shane Del Rosario, you can see why I’ve hallmarked the term, “death, taxes and wrestle-boxers dipping to the southpaw power side.”

This is a dynamic that Jones is very familiar with, so don’t be shocked if he’s able to outstrike or stun Mioicic standing. And if Jones can establish top position in this fight, then be prepared to see him bring back his vaunted ground striking as I’m willing to wager that he’ll be looking to make a statement via 12-6 elbows.

There’s nothing I’d love more than to be wrong and see Miocic use Jones’ hand-fighting sensibilities against him early by annihilating him with his classic right hand off of an inside parry. But even though I’ve never wanted to rate Jones as high as others due to his cheating and competition in deceptively weaker divisions (at least in comparison to greats like Jose Aldo), it’s hard not to favor him against an inactive and aging Miocic.

As someone who believes that Tom Aspinall is the baddest man in the UFC’s heavyweight division and that Ngannou is the baddest man on the planet, I am honestly not excited to see this fight given the promotional brouhaha that we will have to continue to put up with from the UFC boss (who is obviously still going through another fighter breakup given that we’re in the narrative manipulation stage of his ongoing feud with the lineal champion Ngannou).

That said, I’ll reluctantly pick Jones to help White paint his masterpiece by eventually forcing a stoppage via strikes by Round 3.

Prediction: Jones inside the distance

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic start time, where to watch

As the main event, Jones and Miocic are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.