Following the money: UFC 307 betting line movements tracker | Pereira vs. Rountree

10/04/2024 04:15 PM

UFC 307 is live this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024). Here's a look at all the betting line movements as we head into the weekend and get ready for Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree.

UFC 307goes down tomorrow (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT. The PPV main fight card (see it here) is headlined by UFC Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Poatan will be defending his title against Khalil Rountree Jr.. Our co-main event is a Women's Bantamweight title clash between champion Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena.

Rounding out the ESPN PPV card are Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira, Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista and Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland. There's some name value on the "Prelims" card, too, with Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley and Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington.

I've been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 307 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you'll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 307 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Alex Pereira (-483, +1.6%) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+356, -9.6%)

Our champion Alex Pereira opened at -535 and the challenger Khalil Rountree opened at +400. As you can see there's not been a great deal of movement on Pereira's line. However, there has been a little bit of action on Rountree. Seems a good number of folks are hoping to get lucky with those odds under the premise that "anything can happen in a fight."

I get that there could be concerns over Pereira being over-worked as a defending champ or that he might be looking past his opponent here (who is nowhere close to being the true number one contender for the belt). And Rountree does hit hard, very hard. However, I personally don't think all of that is enough to outweigh how special and dangerous of a fighter Pereira is. And he's also shown an incredibly tough mental game during his time in the UFC, so I'm not sure if the kind of intangibles I mentioned will actually affect this fight.

Still, if you're on the Rountree wagon you might want to get in on him quick. His line is trending down, so these odds might get even shorter by the time the fight actually happens.

Raquel Pennington (-165, +1.9%) vs. Julianna Pena (+136, +2.5%)

The public seem pretty content with this line, believing that the champ Raquel Pennington will be solid enough to outlast the challenge of Julianna Pena (a fighter who has shown she's capable of an upset). Pena was a +700 underdog the night she beat Amanda Nunes. In their rematch, which she lost, she was a +210 dog. Pena was also a slight underdog (+100) in her fight with Sara McMann, which she won, in 2021. She was also a slight underdog for her victory over Cat Zingano in 2016 and her losses to Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko in 2020 and 2017.

Pennington beat Mayra Bueno Silva and Ketlen Vieira with plus odds. She also beat Irene Aldana as a slight underdog back in 2019. She has a perfect record in UFC when she's the favorite (7-0).

Jose Aldo (+117, -6%) vs. Mario Bautista (-142, +7.8%)

Jose Aldo is the slight underdog in this bout and public betting has brought that number in a little since it opened at +130. Seems plenty of fans still have faith in the King of Rio. Interestingly the public showed disbelief in Aldo in his return fight with UFC. At UFC 301 he opened as a -107 favorite against Jonathan Martinez, but his line grew to +150 (up 17 percent). Aldo of course won that fight without too much trouble. That win is probably what's encouraging the betting public to get their money on Aldo as an underdog here (despite Mario Bautista perhaps being a tougher opponent, stylisticly, than Martinez was).

Kayla Harrison (-1097, -5.9%) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+688, +36.5%)

You know the story here. Vegas set Ketlen Vieira's line at +400 and the public thought "Are you kidding me?" After they faded her all week Vegas has trumped up her line to almost +700 (and it will probably close at over +800) to try and tempt betters over. I think you could go as high as +1000 on Vieira to win this one. Now we know Kayla Harrison can make weight at Bantamweight, I think we have to expect her to judo throw, pummel and tap anyone else in the division right now.

Roman Dolidze (+123, +1.3%) vs. Kevin Holland (-150, +3.4%)

I'm a little surprised by this line. I think Roman Dolidze is a live dog here and I'm not sure why the public haven't gone in on his plus odds here and pushed him to minus odds. Kevin Holland made a good highlight when he snapped Michal Oleksiejczuk's arm (or did he?) at UFC 302. But Holland was only on the ground in that fight because he was dropped. Dolidze hasn't been terribly impressive lately, but aside from his sparring match with Anthony Smith, he's had a decent strength of schedule. I hope his line continues to grow because I think there's value to be had here.

UFC 307 Late 'Prelims' Line Movement

Stephen Thompson (+178, +24.5%) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-220, -14.7%)

Sad to say that the public are not siding with Wonderboy at UFC 307. The popular Stephen Thompson is now in his forties and that's likely scarring betters from putting their money with him in his fight with the younger (and pretty darn powerful) Joaquin Buckley.

Thompson opened at +110, but he's been steadily bet against here. I also think Buckley will take this one, but I think Thompson will be too tough (and crafty) to get finished. If you're a Wonderboy stan, though, and you want to ride with him into UFC 307 — time to get in on him. Being how popular he is, his line might shorten a bit closer to fight time.

Marina Rodriguez (+157, +25.7%) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-192, -20.5%)

The public think Vegas got this match-up all wrong. The lines for this fight opened with Marina Rodriguez at -100 and Iasmin Lucindo at -120. Those lines have now warped with Rodriguez as the clear underdog and Lucindo as a sizeable favorite. I wish I had gotten Lucindo at -120. I think she's the more well rounded fighter here and her speed could hurt the 37-year-old Rodriguez.

The public were right about Lucindo in her last fight. She opened as a -185 favorite in her fight with Karolina Kowalkiewicz. But it dropped 22.6 percent to -355. Lucindo won that bout in impressive fashion, dominating Kowalkiewicz on the feet and landing a couple of takedowns.

Cesar Almeida (-397, -3.9%) vs. Ihor Potieria (+303, +13.2%)

Ihor Potieria has been on the wrong side of a number of highlight reel finishes (including in his last fight, with Michel Pereira). The public think there's a god chance of that happening again at UFC 307, especially given he's matched up with a KO artist who has come over from GLORY (those guys pan out to be really good sometimes!).

Cesar Almeida lost his last bout to Roman Kopylov via split decision, though the scorecard he received in that fight was very generous. He was taken down and held down for most of that fight. When that fight came around I featured it's line movement here. For that bout his opening line of +120 shrunk to -118. I was surprised at the time, given that Almeida was pretty unproven in MMA and was already 36-years-old.

I have less hesitation about him this time around, mainly because he's going against someone who will stand and bang with him (despite that someone having a pretty comprimised chin). But who knows, maybe Potieria will surprise us with some fight IQ and decide to take Almeida down and lay on him in this fight.

Either way, this isn't one I feel like touching.

Austin Hubbard (+130, -17.4%) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-158, +10.3%)

Austin Hubbard started at +170 and Alexander Hernandez at -215. It seems a section of the public thinks Hubbard is getting disrespected here and they've bet him down to +130 and shortened Hernandez's odds to -158.

I like Hubbard in this fight, too, and think there's a good chance he does to Hernandez what he did to Michal Figlak last time out — shut him out on the feet and then land enough takedowns to steal rounds. Hernandez is a little hard to trust given his recent performances (1-4 with that lone win coming over Jim Miller in 2023). Hernandez lost his last two fights, to Damon Jackson and Bill Algeo, as a slight favorite.

UFC 307 Early 'Prelims' Line Movement

Carla Esparza (+148, +32.8%) vs. Tecia Pennington (-181, -35.3%)

Another flipped fight! Carla Esparza opened as the -150 favorite with Tecia Pennington at +110. Looks like a lot of people have jumped on Pennington since then, probably because Esparza is coming off a two year lay-off and has made it clear this will be her last fight. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence in a fighter when you know they have one glove out the door, does it?

If Esparza hadn't revealed her intention (and had fought more recently) I would feel pretty confident in her ability to out wrestle Pennington. However, I think the concerns over her readiness and willingness to compete are valid. Pennington isn't always great at closing the deal, though, so I'm not running to place a bet on her either. Better to play it safe and bet on this one going the distance.

Ryan Spann (-255, +6.4%) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+203, -18.8%)

Ovince Saint Preux is another underdog who is getting some love from the public. He opened at +260, but that's come down by almost 20 percent. Ryan Spann's opening line was -300.

I like Spann in this fight, but I don't think Saint Preux deserves to be a big underdog here. He's coming off a win over Kennedy Nzechukwu where he was a +500 underdog. Spann has lost his last two fights as a slight favorite. He was -175 when Bogdan Guskov TKO'd him and he was -130 when Guskov's doppelganger Anthony Smith took a split decision over him.

Court McGee (+163, -10.3%) vs. Tim Means (-199, +4.5%)

Yet another underdog whose line has shortened on this card. Court McGee's line has shortened by over 10 percent, moving from +190 to +163. Tim Means was -230 at opening.

I can only think this line movement is due to a lack of confidence in Means. Both these guys are in their 40s and both are coming off bad losses. Means who KO'd by Uros Medic and McGee has lost three straight (including two by KO). Neither of them deserves to be that big a favorite in this match-up.

That being said, I think McGee's talents have probably diminshed more due to age than Means' has. Even so, this isn't a match-up I'd be terribly comfortable betting on either way.

UFC 307 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at Noche UFC 306:

• Ketlen Vieira: From +400 underdog to +688 underdog (+36.5 percent)
• Tecia Pennington: From +110 underdog to -181 favorite (-35.3 percent)
• Carla Esparza: From -150 favorite to -+148 underdog (+32.8 percent)
• Marina Rodriguez: From -110 favorite to +157 underdog (+25.7 percent)
• Stephen Thompson: From +110 underdog to +178 underdog (+24.5 percent)
• Iasmin Lucindo: From -120 favorite to +110 underdog (+25.2 percent)
• Ovince Saint Preux: From +260 underdog to +203 underdog (-18.8 percent)
• Austin Hubbard: From +170 favorite to +130 underdog (-17.4 percent)

Since I've been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 1-13.*
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 5-3.**
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-1.***
• Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 2-1.****

*The lone winner in this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305.

** The losers in this group are Sean O'Malley (who lost to Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306), Manuel Torres (who was KO'd by Iganacio Bahamondes at UFC 306) and Cesar Almeida (who lost a split decision to Roman Kopylov at UFC 302). Popularity might be responsible for O'Malley's line dramatically shifting from underdog to favorite.

***The only fighter in this group is Michelle Waterson-Gomez, who lost to Gillian Robertson at UFC 303. Austin Hubbard and Ovince Saint Preux also fit into this group.

****The loser in this group is Manel Kape (who lost to Mohammad Mokaev at UFC 304). The winners are Merab Dvalishvilli and Igancio Bahamondes.

UFC 307 Best Underdogs Bets

The public like a number of the underdogs at UFC 307. And so do I! I think Austin Hubbard has a great chance of grinding out a decision over Alexander Hernandez. And I also think Roman Dolidze should be the favorite against Kevin Holland. Holland was dropped by Michal Olekseijczuk in his last fight and he's known for bad takedown defense. And I like Jose Aldo, too. The King of Rio at plus odds when he's not fighting a title contender — sign me up! The public also like Ovince Saint Preux and Court McGee, but I personally Spann and Means in those match-ups.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 307 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 307: "Pereira vs. Rountree" news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.