Following The Money! Noche UFC 306 Betting Line Movements Tracker

13/09/2024 23:00

UFC 306 is live this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024). Here's a look at all the betting line movements as we head into the weekend and get ready for Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili.

UFC 306goes down tomorrow (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) from inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. The 10-fight card (see it here) is headlined by Bantamweight champion, Sean O'Malley. He'll defend his 135-pound crown against Merab Dvalishvili. Our co-main is a trilogy fight between Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko for Grasso's Flyweight title. Diego Lopes vs. Brian Ortega also goes down on UFC 306's pay-per-view (PPV) main card.

The remainder of the card fits a "Mexico vs. The World" theme, since this card has been promoted as a celebration of Mexican heritage (despite being sponsored by Riyadh Season). The "Prelims" include Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng,Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont and Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes.

I've been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 306 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you'll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 306 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Sean O'Malley (-125 -51 percent) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+118 -28.3 percent)

There are some wild line changes on this card, none more so than what we see in our main event. O'Malley opened as a +164 underdog and Dvalishvili was the -198 favorite. But, public money has flipped those odds on their heads. O'Malley is now rising as a favorite with Dvalishvili's line creeping longer and longer (great news for those who expect Dvalishvili to wrestle-mug "Suga").

The big question is whether all the money on O'Malley is smart or dumb money? With extremely popular fighters we see lots of public money flow in from folks who just want to support their guy (not necessarily objective betters who think O'Malley is the better fighter in the match-up).

All that being said, I like O'Malley in the fight, so this line movement is bad news for me. If you like Dvalishvili, though, you might want to take that line now. There might be some market correction coming up, with lots of betters jumping on Dvalishvili at plus money. Both fighters might end up closer to evens when the fight actually begins.

Alexa Grasso (-136 - 6.9 percent) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+112 +8.7)

Shevchenko opened as an underdog for the first time since 2016 here. And it seems the public are fine with that. She's seen her line slowly lengthen, while Grasso's has shortened at around the same rate.

Grasso is obviously the winner in their historical head-to-head (though that's thanks to some bizarre judging in their rematch). Shevchenko is on the wrong side of 35, so that might play a factor in these odds here. I do like Grasso here, but a generational fighter under 40 at plus odds is always going to be appealing. Shevchenko's line is likely to keep growing up until fight time.

Brian Ortega (+160 +15.4 percent) vs. Diego Lopes (-195 -10.4 percent)

These two were a pick'em when they were first matched up. But, Ortega's last-minute pull out and Lopes' win over Dan Ige at UFC 303 seemed to have swayed Vegas. Lopes was a pretty decent favorite when the odds opened and that's been supported by the public.

The public, like Vegas, seem to trust Lopes more than Ortega at this point. That might be because there's a bit of a funk around Ortega for his illness withdrawal (or the lasting memory of some of the beatings he has taken). I'm with the public here, too, believing Lopes is on the rise while Ortega is on the decline (because of wear-and-tear more so than age).

Esteban Ribovics (+185 +19.3 percent) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-229 -9.4 percent)

The public are fading Esteban Ribovics hard here. He's coming off the flashiest win of his career (a headkick KO over Terrance McKinney), but his career hasn't made much of an impact beyond that. Daniel Zellhuber has far more potential and is the more exciting talent right now, too. I don't think Ribovics will have the firepower to match Zellhuber in this fight, he'll also be giving up a significant reach advantage.

Ode Osbourne (+125 +2.5 percent) vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez (-151 +2.7 percent)

The lines for this fight have remained close to where they started. However, there was a blip on Monday when things briefly changed. During that period Osbourne's line went up to +139 before being bet back down to +125. That might speak to a very small amount of big bets going on Osbourne all at once, before people went back to betting the favorite.

Osbourne has the experience edge on Rodriguez, in both years and Octagon time. But, I personally don't see him being able to stand up to Rodriguez's pressure.

UFC 306 'Prelims' Line Movement

Irene Aldana (-114 -1.7 percent) vs. Norma Dumont (-107 +5.2 percent)

Most agree that Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont is a very close fight. Vegas has this as a pick 'em and the only changes in the line have been minor. The public are seemingly very divided on this one. Aldana has done more in her career and is probably capable of achieving more than Dumont. But, she doesn't always show up. If she doesn't pull the trigger here, Dumont could have success taking her down. A lot of ifs in this match-up, though. The odds are close for a reason and it's probably a good fight to avoid.

Ignacio Bahamondes (+110 +25.2 percent) vs. Manuel Torres (-133 -31.3 percent)

This is another line where the odds have flipped. Ignacio Bahamondes opened as a -175 favorite. And Manuel Torres was a +130 underdog. But, we've seen those flip with Manuel Torres now the favorite. I don't know if there is some nationalism driving all these Mexican fighters' odds, but it seems like the A-side of the Noche programming are getting a lot of love from the public.

If folks have been researching this bout they may have also been swayed by Torres' exciting style (three performance bonuses in a row). However, Bahamondes is no push over and he's also pulled off some highlight reel finishes of his own.

Yazmin Jauregui (-525 -5.1 percent) vs. Ketlen Souza (+382 +22.2 percent)

The public are fading Ketlen Souza, one of the biggest underdogs on the card. Yazmin Jaureguiis the sizable favorite for a reason. The former Combate champ has looked much better in UFC than the former Invicta champ has to date. Souza is a slugger, but she's very slow compared to Jauregui.

Joshua Van (-237 -0.9 percent) vs. Edgar Chairez (+190 +3.4 percent)

This line came out late due to Joshua Van being a late replacement for Kevin Borjas. The public seem very comfortable with the more exciting Van as the favorite, despite us seeing him get clipped and stopped by Charles Johnson two months ago.

Raul Rosas Jr. (-980 -10.9 percent) vs. Aoriqileng (+613 +36.9 percent)

Raul Rosas Jr. is our biggest favorite on the card. The super prospect looked great last time out in a very fiery bout with Ricky Turcios (which he won by submission). He's getting better everyday so I'm not surprised to see such short odds on him. He's probably featured in a lot of people's parlays and prop bets (win via submission likely). That's why we're seeing Aoriqileng's odds skyrocket. I wouldn't touch him in this fight. He's a gritty veteran, but given his flawed submission defense, it feels like he's been sent in as a bit of a sacrifice here.

UFC 306 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the five biggest line movements at Noche UFC 306:

• Sean O'Malley: From +164 underdog to -125 favorite (-51 percent)
• Aoriqileng: From +350 underdog to +638 underdog (+36.9 percent)
• Manuel Torres: From +130 underdog to -133 favorite (-31.3 percent)
• Merab Dvalishvili: From -198 favorite to +118 underdog (-28.3 percent)
• Ignacio Bahamondes: From -175 favorite to +110 underdog (+25.2 percent)

Since I've been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

When looking at the five fighters for each of the past three PPVs with the biggest line movements, the following is true:

• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 1-11.
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 5-1.
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-1.
• Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 0-1.

UFC 306 Best Underdogs Bets

I'm pretty much siding with the public on all these line movements and I like all the favorites on this card. However, there's a lot of great fighters as underdogs here so I think a lot of people will be tempted by the likes of Dvalishvili, Shevchenko and Ortega at plus money. All of those fighters have shown special qualities in their career and winning as small-to-moderate underdogs doesn't seem beneath them.

The other underdog who interests me is Edgar Chairez. And that's only because Joshua Van is coming on short notice, two months after being KO'd by Charles Johnson (albeit, in a bout he was winning).

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 306 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 306: "O'Malley vs. Merab" news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.