Bellator 300 predictions

07/10/2023 13:00

If Bellator 300 is the beginning of the end for the long-running promotion, it's going out in style.

From Toby Imada's shocking submission of Jorge Masvidal to Hector Lombard's thunderous knockouts to Ben Askren's dominance to the inimitable Kimbo Slice to Fight Master to the epic Eddie Alvarez-Michael Chandler rivalry to the Pitbull brothers to Fedor Emelianko's last ride to the Cris Cyborg-Scott Coker reunion to the Bellator-RIZIN partnership to the Grand Prix era, that's just scraping the surface of the incredible moments scattered across Bellator's 15-year existence.

As with any promotion living in the shadow of the big, bad UFC, it's easy to pick on some of the low points too including contract disputes, tape-delayed international events, the Peppa Pig incident, the aforementioned Grand Prix tournaments seemingly dragging on forever, and occasionally pushing famous fighters well past their prime in prominent spots, and, well, their major anniversary show starting the week with four title fights and ending up with two... but otherwise the Bellator cage has consistently hosted the second-most talented roster in North America since its inception.

Amid rumblings of the PFL purchasing Bellator, there's been plenty of doomsaying about the future of the promotion, despite there being at least one more show booked for November following Saturday's event. Then again, even if the show goes on, it could be under new management and with an entirely new direction.

We could also have a couple of new champions with Usman Nurmagomedov looking to stay unbeaten when he fights Brent Primus and featherweight legend Cris Cyborg taking on Cat Zingano in a highly anticipated grudge match. Also flyweight champion Liz Carmouche fights close friend Ilima-Lei Macfarlane in what is expected to be Macfarlane's swan song.

Here are my predictions for Bellator 300's main card title fights.

What: Bellator 300

Where: Pechanga Arena in San Diego

When: Saturday, Oct. 7. The card begins with a 13-fight preliminary card at 6:30 p.m. ET that streams live on MMA Fighting. The three-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Showtime.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting's Global Rankings)

Usman Nurmagomedov (6) vs. Brent Primus

I'm expecting a clean sweep of title defenses Saturday night, so let's start with how Usman Nurmagomedov is going to deal with Brent Primus.

As one would expect with a fighter carrying the Nurmagomedov mantle, there aren't many holes in the lightweight champion's game. He's not quite the athlete that his cousin Khabib is—DAMN, that guy was good, eh?—but all the hallmarks of the Abdulmanap school of hard knocks are there: clinical wrestling, flawless timing, and a keen nose for the finish.

Putting Primus away inside the distance is a significant challenge. The former champion will have five rounds to figure Nurmagomedov out, but his best bet may be to immediately go on the offensive and take his chances. That's easier said than done given that Nurmagomedov can capitalize on the slightest mistake, but Primus' takedown defense is subpar. One reason for that is because he has a great ground game and is happy to work off of his back, which just isn't feasible when you're dealing with Nurmagomedov's top control and ability to slice through guard.

Is there a chance Primus catches Nurmagomedov with something on the ground? Yes, but unlikely. This is Nurmagomedov's fight to lose if he goes to his wrestling and if it stays standing, I favor his more precise striking. Look for these two to battle into the championship rounds, where Nurmagomedov will assert himself en route to a decision win or a late finish.

Pick: Nurmagomedov

Cris Cyborg vs. Cat Zingano

It was a long and winding road to get to this matchup, but Cris Cyborg and Cat Zingano are finally facing off. Zingano has been targeting a bout with Cyborg since at least 2017, when the two were still in the UFC, and it seemed inevitable that she would get a crack at the featherweight legend. But it took three years for Zingano to actually get the opportunity. Now that she has it, can she actually win?

Cyborg—No. 4 in the MMA Fighting Pound-for-Pound Rankings—has hardly lost a step going from Strikeforce to Invicta FC to the UFC and now Bellator, continuing a remarkable run of performances that make her a comfortable favorite no matter who is standing across from her. Zingano is her most intriguing challenge in some time and I still don't see a clear path to victory for her.

Perhaps Zingano can go the Julianna Peña berserker route that led to victory over Amanda Nunes, but Cyborg is a more technical striker than Nunes and a charging Zingano might just end up flat on her back before she knows what hit her. It wouldn't be the first time her title dreams ended in a flash.

The other possibility is that Zingano puts on the wrestling performance of her life and grinds out a win to capture her first world title after a lifetime of chasing. That would be a nice story. It's not the story we're going to see play out though.

Cyborg stuffs Zingano's best attempts to take her down, forces Zingano into a boxing match, and ends this in Round 1.

Pick: Cyborg

Liz Carmouche (6) vs. Ilima-Lei Macfarlane

Ilima-Lei Macfarlane missing weight is a rough look for what is potentially her last walk to the Bellator cage. This is the second time in three fights this has happened (and she missed by a whopping three pounds before), so it's hard not to think that she's mentally had one foot out the door for a while now and that's a less-than-ideal place to be when you're fighting a top 10 flyweight.

Even if Macfarlane hadn't slipped up at the scale, I'd still be picking Liz Carmouche. She's not an indomitable champion by any means, but the grit that made her such an enduring MMA pioneer has been on full display in her championship reign. As long as there's time on the clock, Carmouche is dangerous.

She probably won't need the full 25 minutes to get Macfarlane in trouble, since I suspect that these two will spend at least a portion of the fight throwing down in a friendly slugfest. Carmouche has the heavier hands and it's more likely that she rocks Macfarlane than the other way around.

All that said, Macfarlane has never been finished and I expect her to keep that record intact, even if the fight doesn't go her way. Carmouche by decision.

Pick: Carmouche