Thursday horse racing tips at Doncaster from talkSPORT's Tom Lunn
09/12/2024 04:14 AM
talkSPORT have you covered with free horse racing tips and free bets from the day’s fixtures at Doncaster.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Thursday racing tips
- Doncaster
1.50: Toomuchforme 13/2 each-way (1pt)
2.25: Intrusively 5/1 each-way (2pts) & Caburn – Swinger (1pt)
3.00: Desert Flower 5/6 (2pts)
3.35: Night Sparkle 4/1 (1.5pts)
Toomuchforme
Has been tipped previously winning well at Ripon in early August before shaping well but beaten by over two lengths to Jewelry at Newbury in mid-August.
She’s potentially better suited upped in trip and will be interesting with the extra half a furlong.
As a decent each-way price she’s worth following in again after her victory at Ripon was impressive, while the wind surgery could help her keep finding more.
Intrusively & Swinger
The Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 two-year-old stakes is one that is often aimed at from the start of the season and is now whittled down to just 20 runners.
But it’s still a huge field filled with top-class colts, geldings and fillies.
The weights for each horse is actually determined by the median price of its sire’s yearlings, meaning a bigger weight penalty will be given to a horse sold for higher.
As such, a bargain could be even more fruitful for horses running well.
A few horses carry the top-weight of 9-4 and is tough to back the likes of Seagolazo and Midnight City in comparison to better-weighted and rated rivals.
Camille Pissarro appeals hugely for Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien who is the top-rated horse of the field but despite his defeats has placed well in Group company in his last four races.
However, Caburn has to be fancied over him as he now receives 4lb from a horse who placed over a length behind in the Gimcrack and can go forward now with the extra yardage seemingly a bonus.
Intrusively appeals even more though at the weights carrying just 8-11
Desert Flower
Won incredibly well on both starts including well ahead of Flight on debut at Newmarket.
Then she won by an even wider margin at 7f again despite carrying 7lb more than her rivals.
Shapes as though she’s a special filly for Godolphin and her odds-on price ahead of the rest of a solid field is example enough of her potential going forward.
Night Sparkle
Has shown great form this year and goes well on good ground, which could be a bonus over some.
Placed a distant eighth in this last year, but has since gone close in Group and listed company.
Only two lengths off of Trueshan at Sandown in July and then went close at Goodwood in the Group 2 Langtry before another good effort in the Lonsdale Cup, behind the likes of top rivals Vauban, Al Nayyir and Gregory.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
- August ’24: +34.88
- From May ’24: +147.96pts
- From July ’23: +360.52pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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