talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for Sunday at Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp
10/04/2024 10:03 AM
Sunday features the world’s biggest Flat turf race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. ‘The Arc’ is the centrepiece of a brilliant day’s racing at Longchamp, which has no fewer than six Group 1 races for thoroughbreds.
A field of 16 will go to post in the feature, which takes place at 3.20. French-trained three-year-olds Look De Vega and Sosie are fighting out favouritism but the field is truly international, with challengers from Britain, Ireland, Germany and Japan.
We have been through the card and picked out the best bets from the six Group 1s, including a fancy for the Arc itself.
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Sunday's tips
2.05 Longchamp – Starlust
The Prix de l’Abbaye is run on the straight 5f course at Longchamp and the action always concentrates on one rail. This means that the race is heavily biased towards horses drawn in low-numbered stalls.
Bradsell, who has become the dominant 5f horse in Europe this season after wins in the Nunthorpe and Flying Five, is drawn in stall nine – and that makes his life difficult.
The bet in the race is the low-drawn STARLUST, who shaped second best behind Bradsell when third in the Nunthorpe. He is in stall two, a perfect spot from which he can take up his usual handy position.
Starlust is still improving, having started the season in handicaps. All his best form has come at York, which is a specialist track but its underlying character is fast and flat, just like Longchamp’s 5f course. There is no reason he should not run well and double-figure odds are too big.
3.20 Longchamp – Aventure
This is a wide-open Arc. If it were a football tournament we would all be backing Italy. It used to be the case in open Arcs that you should back the three-year-olds, and ideally the fillies. The reason for that is they get a lot of weight from the other horses, and when they are much of a muchness that tends to matter.
We have not had an Arc like that for a while, but on the old methods laid out above you would pick AVENTURE. She is pretty interesting. She was favourite for the French Oaks, when she finished fourth, and she has only improved since then.
Her Group 2 win at Deauville was easy and told us little. But in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille, Aventure went toe to toe with Bluestocking and came off a narrow second best. They got a little too close if anything, as Aventure came off worse in a barging match and lost momentum,
The second half of Aventure’s season has been all about the Arc and she will be peaking today. Her current odds underestimate her progressive path.
4.40 Longchamp – Kinross
The Prix de la Foret is a race over a distance of 7f. It is the only open-aged Group 1 over the trip in Europe. Naturally, it takes a specialist to win it and KINROSS very much fits into that category.
This seven-year-old has been a standing dish in autumn 6f and 7f Group 1s. He has run in this race three times, finishing fourth, first and second. There were concerns that age was catching up with him, but he put those fears to bed when winning in good style at Group 2 level at Doncaster last time.
That was a return to Kinross’s best, or near as dammit. The 7f division has not yet found a replacement for their ageing champion and from stall two Kinross has a real chance of securing a second Foret.
*all odds correct at time of writing and subject to change
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