Saturday horse racing tips at Longchamp, Newmarket, Redcar and Ascot from talkSPORT's Tom Lunn
10/04/2024 11:01 AM
talkSPORT have you covered with free horse racing tips and free bets on Saturday’s fixtures at Longchamp, Newmarket, Redcar and Ascot.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Saturday horse racing tips
- NEWMARKET
2.40: Tamfana 5/2 (1pt) - LONGCHAMP
4.00: Term Of Endearment 9/2 (1pt) - REDCAR
3.55: Grey’s Monument 6/4 (1.5pts) - ASCOT
1.50: Relief Rally 5/4 (2pts)
2.25: Salt Bay 7/1 Each-way (1.5pts)
Tamfana
A top filly in the best form possible with a convincing victory over Doha at Sandown in August, which has since worked out very well.
This filly was close behind Sosie, the Arc favourite at Longchamp when upped to 1m4f in July and an even closer fourth to Elmalka in the Group 1 1000 Guineas here in May, and was if anything unfortunate not to win it.
She’s franked that form since then and looks to be the justified favourite ahead of the older Inspiral, who only has to give her 3lb.
Inspiral won this last year by over three lengths at odds-on but this renewal looks to be a bit more stacked than last year’s.
Term Of Endearment
Term Of Endearment is the favourite for this big field running in the Prix de Royallieu.
She’s won each of her last two races when upped to 1m6f for the first time and is clearly a tough mare to win both times ahead of Night Sparkle both times.
There are lots of reappearing rivals in this one but it’s hard to see them getting to the mare at the second or third time of asking.
Neither really had huge excuses and Term Of Endearment has looked to always have that bit more coming into the final furlong.
Grey’s Monument
It looks as though the ground will remain on the softer side at Redcar on Saturday for their great card, featuring two listed contests.
Grey’s Monument bounced back from some poorer form earlier this summer to go extremely well while under top-weight at Ascot to win the bet365 handicap.
Not only beating 12 rivals but comfortably so. He’s the big favourite here in a contest that only really looks set to be won by the top three in the betting and with Rossa Ryan on board the Ralph Beckett-trained horse it’s hard to look beyond those two who are in great form.
Relief Rally
It’s also set to stay on the soft side at Ascot, despite the absence of rain in a couple of days, there has just been that much watering it’s going to take a lot for it to dry up efficiently.
As a result, it’s key to look at the horses who will thrive on this kind of ground, where there’s still a lot of juice but due to the drying over the last couple of days will still have a lot of give and be quite tacky.
The Rous Stakes features some great fillies including Relief Rally and Beautiful Diamond, who are the by far the top two in the market.
Beautiful Diamond was 25/1 for the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh last month, and still finished a respectable 8th behind Bradsell, Believing and a few other top class fillies and colts.
She’s only been seen on soft ground once, at Haydock and came 5th of 9 just over three lengths off the winner, Kerdos but only 3/4 length behind Asfoora.
Relief Rally returned to 5f for the first time since July 2023 when taking on the Group 3 Trophy Stakes at Newbury last month.
Finishing 2nd of 8 behind No Half Measures it was an encouraging bounce back to form, and back to 5f here will suit nicely.
That was on heavy ground too which only boosts her potential in this contest.
She also avoids a penalty having not won this season which gives her 3lb to work with on Beautiful Diamond.
Salt Bay
Al Aasy hasn’t been seen on soft ground since June 2020 when winning by 10 lengths on his third start in a Class 5 novice.
Clearly the ground won’t be a factor against him and his form this season has been almost impeccable with two wins from three.
Hamish does thrive on the softer ground though, he beat Al Qareem by nearly two lengths on heavy ground at Newmarket in November and has only been seen four times since.
His latest two runs have been concerning though but a return to these conditions give him a great chance of bouncing back.
I think Salt Bay may surprise a few here though and a return to 1m4f and these conditions will be right up there, even if just returning some money each-way, as at 7/1 it’s a much greater return to go for it, in what could be an unpredictable race.
Hector Crouch is on board for Ralph Beckett and it’s another classy pairing that could win it.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
- August ’24: +34.88
- From May ’24: +147.96pts
- From July ’23: +360.52pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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