Saturday horse racing tips at Leopardstown, Chester and Doncaster from talkSPORT's Tom Lunn
09/13/2024 09:00 AM
talkSPORT have you covered with free horse racing tips and free bets from the day’s fixtures at Leopardstown, Chester and Doncaster.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Saturday racing tips
- LEOPARDSTOWN
1.40: Green Impact 2/1 (1.5pts)
2.15: Diego Velazquez 5/4 (1pt)
2.50: Porta Fortuna 11/8 (2pts)
3.25: Auguste Rodin 3/1 (1.5pts) - CHESTER
2.05: Al Qareem 2/1 (1pt) - DONCASTER
1.50: Chancellor & Wolf Of Badenoch – Combination Exacta (1pt)
3.00: Lead Artist 11/4 (1.5pts)
3.40: Illinois 2/1 (2pts)
Green Impact
Aidan O’Brien is set to dominate this weekend with much of the Group races scattered with many of his top horses.
The trainer has the two top contenders for the first group race of the Irish meeting with Delacroix and Bernard Shaw either side of Green Impact in the betting.
Green Impact and Delacroix made a debut where they placed 2nd before coming first on their second runs.
But Delacroix won his second race when facing Acapulco Bay at the Curragh on August 10th.
The latter of which of course went on to win on his second run when upped to 1m.
Delacroix made his debut over 1m being beaten by over a length to Green Impact and may well need to improve back up in trip.
That horse is also back as a rival and with that course and distance win under his belt for trainer Mrs John Harrington, he looked value as an each-way play when tipped in the antepost.
Now though with just four runners he looks an ideal choice at 2/1 as a straight win bet.
Diego Velazquez
This Frankel colt finally got back to winning ways for the first time as a three-year-old when making all here over 1m1f in the Group 3 Meld Stakes in July.
He’s been off since and returns to what seems to be his preferred mile trip, having gone close on seasonal debut at Longchamp and not quite keeping up with things when stepping up to 1m2f and 1m4f subsequently.
Has the makings of a star and of course with O’Brien as his trainer he’s got every chance under Ryan Moore likely too.
Porta Fortuna
A rare favourite in a Group 1 that doesn’t have Aidan training the frontrunner, instead it’s Donnacha O’Brien who trains Porta Fortuna.
She beat Jabaara by nearly four lengths at Newmarket and that’s been franked since too, which gives her further reason to be a clear and worthy favourite.
She’s only been beaten by one horse this season and that was Emalka in the 1000 Guineas and only by a neck.
Fallen Angel is a close second and has beaten Porta Fortuna before, and while both have progressed to be great Group 1 fillies, it just seems that the favourite may well have even more.
She too has great form though, only really disappointing in all of her races so far, once in the 1000 Guineas, but is 2-2 in Ireland.
Beating A Lilac Rolla comfortably in May and hasn’t been seen since.
It should be a great contest but Porta Fortuna looks to be the most progressive showing a huge improvement even in her latest run.
Auguste Rodin
Economics leads the betting for the Irish Champion Stakes on Saturday, the Group 1 feature race, with Auguste Rodin as high as 3/1.
It’s incredibly tough to side against this favourite really as he’s shown incredible form, beating Ancient Wisdom by six lengths at York to win the Group 2 Dante before going to France in August to win the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano by two lengths.
It was a comfortable victory in France and no easy feat either as Jayarebe has also shown he’s right up there in Group 1 company now and to beat him by keeping on in the final furlong, shows Economics has more to offer.
Now rated 121 and with the weight advantage over four-year-old Auguste Rodin, he’s got a great chance.
Auguste Rodin won this last year as a three-year-old, when given the same weight difference to Economics, by Luxembourg, who was the four-year-old competitor at the time.
Al Qareem
Course and distance winner who has gone well on heavy ground before which it is at Chester at the time of writing.
It’s key to find horses that suit the track sometimes, especially here where it’s a very sharp course that some don’t seem to like as opposed to the progressive curves in the round courses.
Al Qareem wasn’t quite with the pace against Kyprios in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup, but went very well to place second behind Al Aasy.
That form should show he’s better than his current mark and rivals in this contest at a lovely price.
Chancellor & Wolf Of Badenoch
The Champagne Stakes sees just six runners enter the colts and geldings two-year-old contest.
Chancellor beat Brave Mission when carrying 6lb more as a penalty over course and distance last time out and that horse went on to win at Kempton last week, which bodes well.
Prior to that Chancellor placed a decent third nearly four lengths off of Al Qudra but clearly has progressed since then.
Wolf Of Badenoch as a close second to Aomori City last time out, who was the antepost tip before being withdrawn from contention.
It makes sense to replace that tip with the one horse who went close at Goodwood in the Vintage Stakes.
Chancellor was that impressive he makes it tough though, as Wolf Of Badenoch’s form has also been boosted with 3rd placed Cool Hoof Luke winning next time out too.
Both should go close and make a great exacta as currently it’s tough to see how they’ll shape up against one another.
Lead Artist
Just the nine runners for the Park Stakes, the Group 2 for three-year-olds over 7f.
Kinross is just about the favourite for this having the Group 1 experience and course and distance form.
He beat Audience in August 2023 but was well beaten by that horse at Goodwood last time out and is for me, tough to back at this price.
However, he is at a great and dangerous weight being dropped to 112, 4lb less than when a close third behind Montassib at Newcastle.
Shouldvebeenaring hasn’t won in Britain since May 2023 and he’s had very busy two and three-year-old campaigns since then.
He’s only been seen over 7f four times from then to now with a few close placings but nothing necessarily to suggest he can go forward again.
Which leaves the more unexposed Lead Artist for John & Thady Gosden, who won ahead of King’s Gamble last time out at Goodwood in the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes.
The Dubawi colt is being dropped to 7f for the first time having gone 2-4 over 1m, dangerous.
Illinois
10 have been declared for the near £400k St Leger on Saturday afternoon.
You Got To Me was supplemented for the race at a cost of £50k, which speaks volumes of connections’ beliefs in this horse’s ability to win a race like this especially as she’ll be the only filly of the field.
As a result, she carries 9st while the colts all carry 9-3.
Illinois is unsurprisingly the front runner in the odds for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who also trains the 2nd and 3rd favourites in the market, JanBrueghel and GrosvenorSquare.
Jan Brueghel’s win over Bellum Justum on August 1 was a huge victory in the grand scheme of things, not just because the Sea The Stars colt went on to win comfortably in the Nashville Derby.
But given the O’Brien-trained horse was sweating before and didn’t necessarily have the kindest of starts, he did well to forge on nicely to win making it 3 for 3 for the Galileo colt.
But he’s going to be stepping up from 1m4f to 1m6f+ for the first time, which seems to be the ideal trip for Illinois, Grosvenor Square, Align The Stars and Wild Waves.
All of these runners do have the pedigree to suggest they can win this, as Galileo has produced numerous St Leger winners.
However, Jan Brueghel is a full brother to Dawn Rising who although has form over 1m6f has yet to win over that distance, though has gone well over further – winning the Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m5f).
As such, it does seem the betting market has this right with Illinois, who went well in the Queen’s Vase over this kind of distance and ought to not be discounted just for his two 2nd place finishes in his last two starts.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
- August ’24: +34.88
- From May ’24: +147.96pts
- From July ’23: +360.52pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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