Women's college basketball mailbag: Outlooks for Maryland, Tennessee, Kansas

03/09/2025 17:54

We're officially two months away from the start of the 2025-26 women's college basketball season. And fans have a lot of questions.

I put out a prompt for a mailbag on X, BlueSky and Facebook for any and all questions about the upcoming season and got some interesting responses. Thanks to all that took the time to reply.

Questions ranged from weighing ceilings and expectations for a few Power 4 programs, to a broad inquiry about underrated teams, to a temperature check on how one league is dealing with the House Settlement.

Let's get into them:

What's the ceiling for Maryland this year?

To answer this simply, the ceiling for Brenda Frese's Terps — if they're spared of injuries — is to compete for the Big Ten title and a trip to the Final Four, which is the standard Frese has had for decades in College Park.

While one of the best players in program history, Shyanne Sellers, has moved on to the pros, Maryland brings back the core of a roster that last year went 25-8 and lost by just four points to South Carolina in the Sweet 16. Leading scorer Kaylene Smikle is back, so is double-double machine Saylor Poffenbarger, and the versatile defensive standout Mir McLean. On top of that trio, Bri McDaniel is expected to be healthy and to take the reins at point guard.

Maryland got even better through the transfer portal and recruiting trail. Frese brought in ACC Tournament MVP Oluchi Okananwa from Duke and three-time All-Big Ten selection Yarden Garzon from Indiana. Both of these players only increase the Terps' depth and versatility. There's also five freshmen, three of whom come from overseas and bring with them unknown upside and untapped potential. Of the two American rookies, one of them — Rainey Welson of Wisconsin — is an ESPN Top 100 recruit.

While Gracie Merkle may have turned her back on the Terps, this roster still seems to be equipped for a deep postseason run.

Can Kansas compete for the Big 12 championship?

I don't think so, but I do think the Jayhawks will be better.

Kansas took a bit of a step back last season after a few years of consistent growth and success. The Jayhawks won the WNIT in 2023 and made the NCAA Tournament in 2024, but last season finished just 16-14 overall. What's noteworthy about Kansas this season is that head coach Brandon Schneider brought in an impressive signing class that features three of ESPN's top 45 recruits — headlined by 6-foot-2 forward Jaliya Davis, a Kansas native.

To pair with that impressive rookie trio, Kansas returns its two leading scorers, guard S'Mya Nichols and wing Elle Evans. Third-leading scorer and top rebounder Regan Williams is back too, ready for a sophomore encore. Boosting that returning group is Indiana transfer Lilly Meister, who sports a career 58.4 percent shooting mark from the floor.

It feels like Kansas has flown under the radar a bit this offseason, but this seems like a roster that's capable of competing in the top half of a wide-open Big 12 and grabbing a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Speaking of underrated teams…

What are the most underrated programs this season?

Setting the Jayhawks aside for a moment, there's a handful of teams I feel like aren't being talked about enough this offseason.

One of them is Michigan, which is bringing back a trio of impressive rising sophomores in Olivia Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway, and meshing them with transfers like UCLA's Kendall Dudley and former Patriot League Player of the Year Ashley Sofilkanich. After three consecutive seasons of opening weekend exits from the NCAA Tournament, it feels like Michigan is due for a longer postseason stay this year.

Washington is another one. In Tina Langley's fourth season at the helm, the Huskies snapped their NCAA Tournament drought, appearing in the Big Dance last year for the first time since 2017. The Huskies now seemed primed to build on that, as they return three of their four leading scorers — Elle Ladine, Hannah Stines and Sayvia Sellers — and also brought in USC transfer Avery Howell and landed a top 15 recruit in Brynn McGaughy.

Miami is the other team I'll mention here. Tricia Cullop's first season in Coral Gables was a bumpy one as the Cavinders' return to basketball didn't go exactly as planned, but the Hurricanes reset and reloaded through the portal, landing an impressive class of imports. Leading the way is Gal Raviv, who averaged 17.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game last season as a freshman at Quinnipiac and was one of the leading scorers at this summer's U19 World Cup. In addition to Raviv and two ESPN Top 100 recruits, other Miami additions include SMU forward Jessica Peterson who averaged 12 rebounds per game, 6-foot-6 Florida center Ra Shaya Kyle, and USF guard Vittoria Blasigh.

What do you think about the roster Robin Pingeton has built in Madison and what do you think are reasonable expectations for the Badgers this year?

I'm really not sure what to expect here. I think an experienced coach like Pingeton probably raises Wisconsin's floor a bit, but it's telling to me — and perhaps says a lot about Wisconsin's commitment to and investment in women's basketball — that the Badgers had to go get a recently pushed-into-retirement SEC coach to lead the program instead of a promising candidate from the mid-major ranks.

All that said, there's a few players on this roster that stand out to me. Destiny Howell was one of the best scorers in the MEAC at Howard, Laci Steele shined in spurts off the bench for N.C. State, and Shay Bollin is a former top 30 recruit who began her college career with some hype, but had her career derailed by injury. Kyrah Daniels was a two-year starter at Missouri State, Gift Uchenna averaged a double-double last season at Southern Illinois, and Breauna Ware posted 14.7 points per game at Stony Brook.

The point here is that, through the transfer portal, Wisconsin brought in some legitimate women's college basketball players with real skills and bonafides. Pingeton's challenge will be making it all mesh together — something she was unable to do at Missouri in the post-Sophie Cunningham years. Reasonable expectations for the Badgers this year, in my opinion, would be a .500 overall record.

In the new era of revenue share, where is the ACC trending nationally against its peers. Or is it too soon to tell?

I think it's too early to tell, but I also think that the early signs aren't good for the ACC.

Consider Notre Dame, which had an absolute exodus of talent this offseason as the Irish saw Olivia Miles, Kate Koval and Kylee Watson all walk out the door. The Irish then replaced them with players that, quite frankly, don't match the talent they lost. Was that because of the lack of money flowing into women's basketball in South Bend, a lack of focus on roster management by Niele Ivey, or something else?

Also consider what I've reported on North Carolina. In April, Courtney Banghart was asking Bubba Cunningham for more NIL money from UNC's collective and also asked him for at least $1.5 million from the Tar Heels revenue sharing funds. She instead got only $250,000 from that.

And look at N.C. State's offseason. The Wolfpack swung and missed — and were seemingly outbid by other programs — on several transfer targets. N.C. State salvaged its offseason by being in the right place at the right time to land Khamil Pierre, but before signing her, Wes Moore admitted that he wasn't a very good general manager.

Look at how the transfer portal went this year. Arguably the two best players in the portal — Olivia Miles and Ta'Niya Latson — left ACC schools and joined programs in the Big 12 and SEC. Of the transfer portal rankings I put together (which were completely arbitrary and unscientific, but still) four of the top 15 players left ACC schools, and only two — Laura Ziegler to Louisville and Gal Raviv to Miami — entered the ACC.

The ACC hasn't won a national title since 2018. I don't think that changes this season.

How does Tennessee do in Year Two under Kim Caldwell?

The status of Ruby Whitehorn being in limbo throws a bit of a wrench into calculating Tennessee's expectations, but I think the Lady Vols will take a step forward under Caldwell. The returners on this team know what to expect from her now in terms of her style, pace of play and substitution patterns, and should be better prepared to endure that down the stretch of the regular season.

I also think this roster is — with or without Whitehorn — better than it was a year ago. Caldwell landed two of the top transfers in UCLA's Janiah Barker and SMU's Nya Robertson, and also brought in arguably one of the best recruiting classes in the country, which features five ESPN Top 100 recruits and is headlined by ninth-ranked Mia Pauldo.

Tennessee should finish in the top third of the SEC and be in the mix to be a top 16 seed when the NCAA Tournament rolls around.

Assuming JuJu Watkins doesn't play this season, what does the National Player of the Year race look like?

UCLA center Lauren Betts looked like the favorite to win this award last season until Watkins' Trojans swept the Bruins in February, so let's start with the 6-foot-7 unicorn. With a strong season at TCU, Olivia Miles can play her way into this conversation, and so can her former teammate in South Bend, Hannah Hidalgo. Ta'Niya Latson was the nation's leading scorer a year ago and what she does in Dawn Staley's system will be worth paying attention to. Elsewhere in the SEC, Flau'Jae Johnson at LSU and Mikayla Blakes at Vanderbilt might also put up numbers that boost their candidacy.

Oh, and we shouldn't forget about the defending national champs. Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong are both capable of having seasons that make them frontrunners for this award.