The Capitals are completely lost against the Hurricanes, but why?

05/12/2025 02:44 PM

Why is Washingtokn struggling so badly in this series?

The Washington Capitals are far from being in all-out crisis, but hopes for their season definitely don't look good. After a staggering 4-0 loss in Raleigh on Saturday it's become apparent that whatever strategy this team brought into the series simply isn't working.

Through three games Carolina has dominated Washington in almost every phase of the game. Game 2 in Washington now looking more like a blip on the radar, rather than being indicative of success. With Game 4 taking place on Monday night it's the last best chance for the Capitals to get this series back on track under the weight of expectation from the 2024-25 regular season, and also the emotional pressure of trying to win a cup for Alex Ovechkin before he retires following the 2025-26 season.

It's safe to say that Washington is looking like a deer in headlights right, but the real question is why?

The numbers that have defined this series

When we look at why the Hurricanes are handling the Capitals so easily right now it comes down to three key areas:

• Shots
  Carolina: 89
  Washington: 56
• Puck control (5v5 Corsi for)
  Carolina: 67.9%
  Washington: 33%
• Offensive zone starts
  Carolina: 69.1%
  Washington: 30.9%

What do these mean? In short: Carolina's strategy is working perfectly. Rod Brind-A'mour's entire offensive system revolves around using the forecheck to force mistakes out of opposing players and shrink the ice so he can bring his defensemen up to center ice and essentially play half-rink hockey. That's working, and it's exceptionally bad for the Capitals.

The shot disparity wouldn't be so concerning, because the Hurricanes' style is to put a lot of pucks on net — but when you combine that with poor puck control and an inability to start with the puck in the offensive zone it creates a scenario where Carolina is simply exhausting the Caps.

File that idea in the back of your head, exhaustion, because it's going to be critical in a little while.

Getting out-muscled

This is one of the most astonishing elements to this series, and something I don't think anyone really saw coming. The Hurricanes have a very small forward unit, averaging 6'0 and 188 pounds. Compare to the Capitals same line, who average 6'4 and 227 pounds. There is no planet in which Washington should be getting forced off the puck on the forecheck as much as they are, but Carolina has shown an alarming amount of fight in this regard.

So the question is: Why aren't the Capitals really throwing their muscle around? As it stands only Tom Wilson seems to have any fight in this series, with the rest of the Caps playing much smaller than their frames. This wasn't much of an issue against the more finesse-based Canadiens, but Washington can't expect to coast on lacking effort against the Hurricanes.

There almost seems to be a sense of resignation from Capitals coach Spencer Carbery when he was asked why his first line is struggling, and in particular why Ovechkin hasn't scored a point this series.

"I think overall just his line, and Dylan Strome plays a big part in that," Washington coach Spencer Carbery said. "It's tough because they're a line that relies a lot on entries and creating off of entries, and you're just not going to get very many of those against the Carolina Hurricanes with their gap control and the length and size of their [defensemen]."

Here's the problem: It's Carbery's job to work out how to get entries. While it's certainly true the Canes have great cap control and long defensemen, continually bashing the Ovi/Strome/Protas line against it just isn't working.

The Ovi "problem"

The biggest issue right now is that Carbery insists of keeping Ovechkin on the first line, and it's just not working. At this point in his career you're reasonably only getting 17 minutes of ice time from Ovechkin a night, and that has to be used in key scoring situations — not bashing his head against the Canes' forecheck.

There's been a consistent battling of Ovechkin with either Seth Jarvis or Jackson Blake, depending on how Brind-A'mour adjusts his lines, and now we've got guys who are 22-years-old and 21-years-old respectively getting to harass Ovechkin and sap what's left of his 39-year-old energy.

Ovechkin is the No. 1 goal scorer on the Capitals this season, and a lot of his play was predicated by Stome and Protas opening up opportunities for him, but when those passing lanes aren't open we've got a scenario where Ovi isn't getting any clean looks on goal.

The smartest thing Carbery could do would be to swap Ovechkin to the third line for Andrew Maniapane. That would allow more instances where Ovi is up against the far less athletic Jordan line of Carolina's with Jordan Martinook and Jordan Staal.

It would be exchanging some top-tier passing for Ovi, but give him some open looks for the first time this season. It's the only place on the Canes' lines which is old, and that has to be exploited with this series on the line, rather than tiring out Ovi and hoping things might bounce in another direction.

Monday is a must-win for Washington

Currently down 2-1 in the series there's no margin for error. The Capitals have to return to DC with this series leveled if they have any chance to moving on. Carbery has remarked that Carolina is an extraordinarily tough place to play due to crowd noise, and that will be become orders of magnitude worse if the Hurricanes have a chance to close out the series at home in Game 6 — and that works under the assumption they won't win in DC.

It's time to hit the panic button and do something about this. Ovi has to be put in a position where he can thrive, and Tom Wilson should be put in a higher spot where he can use his physicality to put some hurt on Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov.

As it stands though the Caps seem resigned to keep trying the same thing and hoping it'll magically work, but right now there's no magic to how Washington is playing.