Ranking the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses: Which colts are most likely to win on May 3?

04/25/2025 08:06 AM

The Kentucky Derby horses are the true rock stars at the highly anticipated yearly event. Close to 150,000 people will pack into Churchill Downs Racecourse on May 3 to see which horse will win the first leg of the prestigious Triple Crown.

Related: Kentucky Derby FAQ – Everything you need to know about the 2023 race

The May classic brings in not just the best horses in the United States but elite thoroughbreds from around the world. With all of that in mind, we rank the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses.

1. Journalism

Michael W. McCarthy-trained Colt Journalism is a sizable favorite heading into he 2025 Kentucky Derby. The three-year-old has been absolutely dominant in his first five races. After a third place debut at Santa Anita, the horse has reeled off four straight wins. The most recent coming early in April at the 2025 Santa Anita Derby. He is the horse to watch on May 3.

2. Sandman

Sandman, trained by Mark E. Casse, is one of the early favorites in May. The eight-race veteran has had a busy last five months. In Colt’s last four races, he has scored first, second, third, and first-place finishes. Sandman’s most recent victory was taking first just a month ago at the Arkansas Derby.

3. Rodriguez

Rodriguez will be a popular pick at this year’s Derby. The horse trained by racing icon Bob Baffert has looked very strong in his five races since debuting in November. While he has not won every race, he has put on strong performances at the Robert B. Lewis and this year’s Wood Memorial, where he took first place.

4. Tappan Street

Tappan Street just made his debut a few months ago and has only gotten in three races thus far during his career. However, he has scored victories in two of those, including the 2025 Florida Derby, for owners WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc., and Cold Press Racing. This is why he is among the biggest threats to journalism this year.

5. Sovereignty

Sovereignty is sure to get a good amount of money put down on him to win this year’s Derby. He has had a first or second place finish in all but one of his five faces, including wins at the Fountain of Youth and Street Sense. However, losing to fellow Derby competitor Tappan Street in March at the Florida Derby may make some question how serious a threat he is to win it all on May 3.

6. Burnham Square

Three-year-old Gelding Burnham Square could be a dark horse at the 2025 Derby. The Ian R. Wilkes-trained horse has won three of its five career races. Including two this year at the Blue Grass and the Holy Bull. Square seems to be peaking at the right time after winning just a few weeks ago.

7. Luxor Cafe

While Noriyuki Hori-trained Colt Luxor Cafe has just two career races, they were impressive first-place finishes on the Japanese circuit. It is always tough to gauge how international horses will do at the Triple Crown, but competitors from the land of the rising sun have fared much better in recent years. It is why Cafe is an intriguing dark horse at the Derby.

8. Citizen Bull

Bob Baffert-trained Colt Citizen Bull is a bit of a sleeper at the Derby. He has four wins in his six races, including at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, the reason why he doesn’t have better odds at the Derby is a fourth-place finish at a 2025 Santa Anita that was won by Derby favorite Journalism.

9. East Avenue

After a very rough start to the year (night and tenth place finishes), East Avenue looked very strong at the 2025 Blue Grass, where he finished second to Burnham Square. It is why the Brendan P. Walsh-trained Colt may be a popular dark horse pick on May 3.

10. Grande

Todd A. Pletcher-trained Colt Grande will be another interesting option for bettors looking for a non-favorite without outrageous odds. The horse has won two of its three races and looked good in a second-place finish to Rodriguez at the 2025 Wood Memorial in early April.

11. Tiztastic

While one of the more experienced horses in the race (eight previous duels) ,Tiztastic is not viewed among the favorites. The Colt has just three wins over his career and has not performed well in previous races against some of the other competitors he will see at the Derby.

12. Chunk of Gold

Terry L. Stephens’ horse Chunk of Gold has never finished below second in its four career races, including a second-place finish at the 2025 Louisiana Derby. But just one victory since his debut in December doesn’t give major reasons to expect Gold to be a serious contender at the Derby.

13. American Promise

American Promise is the most experienced Colt at the Derby with nine races on his resume. Unfortunately, he has just two wins to show for it. Nevertheless, a win at the Virginia Derby in March is why he can’t be completely overlooked on May 3.

14. Final Gambit

Despite a strong 2025 where he has won two of his three races, Final Gambit is among the long shots heading into the Kentucky Derby. He looked great at his most recent showcase at the end of March, but it was in a G3 race in Kentucky. Nevertheless, as a Brad H. Cox-trained horse, he can’t be underestimated.

15. Coal Battle

On the surface, Coal Battle, having five wins in eight career races, should be a reason to be among the favorites in Kentucky. Unfortunately, his wins at the Rebel Stakes and Smarty Jones came against lower-level competition. When he went up against some of the horses he saw on May 3 at the 2025 Arkansas Derby, he finished third.

16. Publisher

Steven M. Asmussen-trained horse Publisher gave reason for hope with an impressive second-place finish at the 2025 Arkansas Derby. However, no victories in seven career races is why his odds aren’t great heading into the event.

17. Admire Daytona

Admire Daytona has some of the weakest odds heading into the race. Due to very limited action (two career races). However, the Japanese horse did score a win in early April at the 2025 United Arab Emirates Derby. Of the long shots, Daytona could be one to watch.

18. Flood Zone

Brad H. Cox-trained colt Flood Zone seemed like a Colt on the rise when he won two of his first three races. However, an awful seventh-place finish at the United Arab Emirates Derby on April 5 is why he is an afterthought heading into the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

19. Flying Mohawk

Six race veteran Flying Mohawk is another huge underdog at this year’s Derby. While he scored two big wins in October and January, his second-place finish to fellow Derby competitor Final Gambit at a G3 race in March gives reason not to expect much from Mohawk on May 3.

20. Owen Almighty

While Owen Almighty has seven races on his resume, he has just three wins, and most of them came in lower-level duels. His sixth-place finish at the 2025 Blue Grass in April — a race won by Burnham Square — is why he is a long shot on May 3.

Odds for 2025 Kentucky Derby horses

Here are the current betting odds for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. The race takes place a 6:57 PM ET on May 3.

• Journalism: 3-1
• Sandman: 8-1
• Sovereignty: 8-1
• Rodriguez: 10-1
• Tappan Street: 10-1
• Burnham Square: 15-1
• Luxor Cafe: 15-1
• Citizen Bull: 20-1
• East Avenue: 20-1
• Grande: 20-1
• Tiztastic: 20-1
• American Promise: 30-1
• Chunk of Gold: 30-1
• Coal Battle: 30-1
• Final Gambit: 30-1
• Publisher: 30-1
• Owen Almighty: 50-1
• Admire Daytona: 50-1
• Flood Zone: 50-1
• Flying Mohawk: 50-1

2024 Kentucky Derby winner

Mystik Dan entered the 2024 edition of the Kentucky Derby with solid odds at 18-1. While he was not viewed as a favorite, he could be a dark horse (no pun intended) at the event. Well, he showed his potential when he battled Sierra Leone and Forever Young down to the last inch. In one of the closest Derby finishes in history, Dan one by a nose.