JJ McCarthy will make or break the Vikings

03/06/2025 14:00

So much in the NFC North will be impacted by who J.J. McCarthy winds up being.

One of the greatest questions you can ask in sports, in life really, is "What if?".

What if the Seattle Seahawks had just run it with Marshawn Lynch? Would they have won Super Bowl LIX? Would the New England Patriots, after finally breaking through for the first title 10 years after their initial dynasty, have won again in 2016 and 2018? Would Tom Brady have ever left?

The magic of what-if questions is that the good ones can spawn off branches of their own hypotheticals. Sports are built on legacy and when you start to play with it things can get a bit wild and weird.

For today's edition of The Skinny Post we, Michael Peterson and RJ Ochoa, are looking at several what-ifs that surround the upcoming 2025 NFL season.

What if J.J. McCarthy is really good? Or really bad?

RJ:

The Minnesota Vikings were one of the most impressive stories of last season and rightfully so given that they won 14 games with Sam Darnold starting at quarterback.

It made sense for Minnesota to let Darnold walk in free agency to the Seattle Seahawks, especially with last year's first-round draft pick waiting in the wings in J.J. McCarthy. It obviously feels like forever ago now, but the Vikings took McCarthy at 10th overall in the draft coming off of him helping the Michigan Wolverines win the National Championship.

Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell has developed a reputation to suggest he can succeed with a variety of options at quarterback, Darnold is proof of that, but so much about the Vikings and the NFC North in general and therefore the NFL at large rests on what kind of player McCarthy is as a professional.

The Vikings are a team who we all believe can contend in different ways. McCarthy is either going to amplify that notion or take some of the steam out of it. He is arguably the biggest what-if across the entire NFL.

Michael:

The Vikings just signed general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to a multi-year extension and deservedly so. He's done nothing but turn Minnesota into a consistent winner. (We are, of course, ignoring the Kirk Cousins injury in 2023.)

Kwesi has done wonders with the resources he's been given and he's arguably built the best roster the Vikings have ever had since he too over as GM. But I'll be totally honest: I think the inevitable success or failure if J.J. McCarthy will end up being his legacy at the end of the day. If they "hit" on their quarterback and he takes the Vikings to the places they hope to go, he'd immediately vault himself into the upper echelon of their franchise's most-impactful figures. If McCarthy does not end up being a franchise quarterback, Kwesi will have to live with that blemish on his otherwise sterling reputation as a team builder.

What if Raiders rookie RB Ashton Jeanty is a bust?

Michael:

Ashton Jeanty ended his career at Boise State by rushing for 2,601 yards during his final season with the Broncos. That's the second-most all-time behind only Barry Sanders and 2,628 yards he put up in 1988.

That level of productivity is always hard to bet against, even when accounting for the change in difficulty going from the college game to the pros. At the same time, some of the other uber-productive backs in college football history weren't able to find stable footing at the next level.

Right behind Jeanty for single-season rushing yards is Melvin Gordon, a former first-round pick of the Chargers in 2015. He rushed for 2,587 yards in his final collegiate season at Wisconsin but only notched one single NFL campaign over 1,000 yards. Another name is Rashaad Penny. He rushed for 2,248 yards in 2017 but never broke 1,000 yards in the NFL and retired before the 2024 season.

Here's the thing, the other names in the top 10 of single-season rushing leaders in Division I include guys like Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Marcus Allen, so there's surely a chance for things to go well. However, history says it's very possible Jeanty does not play up to his pedigree as the sixth-overall pick in the draft.

If that happens, would it be all that surprising? It is the Raiders, after all. That would almost be par for the course in regards to that franchise's luck.

RJ:

This is definitely something that has potential to happen due to factors completely unrelated to Jeanty, in my opinion.

You have to wonder what the vision is for the Raiders in 2025. Are they just going to give him 30 carries a game? What happens if/when there is no threat in the passing game? The math doesn't necessarily add up nicely here.

Obviously the running back position experienced a renaissance of sorts last year, but that was due to players like the aforementioned Henry and Saquon Barkley finding success with new teams. More specifically, that was due to those players choosing to go to successful teams where they could take advantage of everything working in their favor.

I'm definitely skeptical here.

What if winning MVP was a breakthrough for Josh Allen?

RJ:

When Rory McIlroy won The Masters a couple of months ago there were many people who wondered whether or not we would start to see a breakthrough of sorts from him as far as major championships given that the green jacket was the last leg that he needed for a career grand slam. Finally achieving the one thing that you are seeking with all of you can be freeing and lead to those types of things. We have seen it across all sports.

Obviously Josh Allen has not been seeking an MVP above everything throughout his career, but now that he has it I wonder if the same sort of phenomenon will occur. I'd offer that part of the situation with Allen is that his own individual rise seems to be happening parallel with what could be (famous last words here) regression from the Kansas City Chiefs. I recognize that we have said this in varying ways in the past, but the time sort of feels right for Allen and his teammates to take the AFC for themselves at long last.

You could argue that this means there is a ton of pressure on Allen. Expectation can bring that sort of thing. If the Bills falter, like they did a bit a couple of years ago, then maybe that leads people to believing that they simply can never get it done.

Michael:

In my experience, nothing allows you to feel freer in pursuit of a goal than having achieved it before. It's the idea that because it happened once, it can happen again. Until you reach it for the first time, there is always that possibility of it NEVER happening, which is where most of that anxiety and emotional distress can come from.

For Allen, he's the reigning MVP. He did it once and he sure as heck can do it again. While that may allow him to play more free as an individual throughout the regular season, it likely hasn't done much for his goal of beating the Chiefs in the playoffs and earning a trip to the Super Bowl. That's still a major hump to get over and until he finally can look at the scoreboard during the AFC Championship Game and Bills are on top, he may always have that thought clinging to the back of his mind.

What if we had a first-time Super Bowl winner this season?

Michael:

The final few games of the NFL season have gotten a bit too ho-hum, in my opinion. The Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and 49ers have been the common names to play in their respective conference championship games as of late with the Chiefs being a mainstay in the final game having faced both the Niners and Eagles in the last two Super Bowls.

I'm just itching for some new blood to find themselves deep into the playoffs. Heck, at this rate how awesome would it be to see a team win their first championship in franchise history? We had a chance last year with five different teams in the postseason who had never won the final game. The Lions seemed like a good bet, but lost in the Divisional round. The Chargers and Vikings couldn't get past Wild Card weekend. The Bills once again couldn't overcome the Chiefs (and same for the Texans).

Are the Bills going to be the next first-time winner? Could the Lions beat them to it? I'm begging for someone to break through.

RJ:

If I had to pick who the next first-time winner is then Buffalo is absolutely my choice. Detroit is a bit of a tough team to bet on with their coordinators both leaving... and did we forget that they fell completely flat on their faces as the top seed? How many times has anybody even brought that up?

What if we twisted it and went with a winner that hasn't won in a long time? The Dallas Cowboys fit this mark, but so do the San Francisco 49ers. What if the Niners truly have fixed the vibes by paying everyone and establishing group harmony? Can they finally break through?

Consider that 13 years ago the 49ers were a perfect 5-0 in all Super Bowls that they had played. Since then they are 0-3 with several more Championship Game losses on top of those.

Maybe it is their time.