Checking in on UEFA World Cup qualifying
04/09/2025 13:00
The September 2025 international window is upon us and it's time to start thinking about who will book their places this fall for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, 10 teams have qualified alongside co-hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States. We now see who will fill out the rest of the 48 spots in next summer's tournament.
UEFA has the most spots in the World Cup of any confederation, as 16 places will be decided through their qualifying process. The first round consists of 12 groups, half of them containing 4 teams and the other half containing 5 teams. The winner of each group will advance directly to the World Cup. The 12 runners-up along with the four best Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League interim overall ranking, who finish outside the top two in their group will move to the playoff round, where 4 more teams will be decided.
Who's in front
Groups G, H, I, J, K, and L have already held World Cup qualifying matches, starting their journey in March. Finland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Norway, North Macedonia, England, and Czechia are the current group leaders midway through qualifying. Groups A, B, C, D, E, and F begin this week and will see each team have 6 matches in the September, October, and November windows.
Key matches left
Denmark vs. Scotland on September 5th could go a long way to determining who has the upper hand in Group C, while Turkey hosting Spain on September 7th will be a monster matchup. Bosnia & Herzegovina will have their hand full with Austria on September 9th. Many of the major matchups will come in October, including Belgium at home to North Macedonia (October 10th) and on the road to Wales (October 13th). Czechia hosting Croatia on October 9th could see the top two teams in Group L face off for the lead. Finally, Italy at home against Norway on November 16th could be a match with some huge implications.
Teams with best chance to qualify
Norway already has a commanding lead in Group I with a perfect 12 points from 4 matches. If they continue their undefeated record, they have a chance to clinch qualification during the October window. Of the teams that have not begun play yet, England and Germany are in groups that many would see as very winnable group for those two teams.
Big teams in trouble
Once again, Italy has painted themselves into a corner where they need to get wins quickly. They have just 3 points from 2 matches in Group I and are staring up at Norway's 12 points through 4 matches. The September window is huge for Italy to try and get back into contention…if they drop points here, the danger will start to mount that they could fail to qualify for the World Cup for the third straight time. Belgium also has some work to do to get back atop Group J, but will have to fight with Wales and North Macedonia in October to emerge from that group.
