6 NBA teams falling behind their rivals for next season
05/08/2025 21:43
There's still more than seven weeks remaining in the NBA offseason. It's already been a wild summer headlined by the Houston Rockets trading for Kevin Durant, the Denver Nuggets beefing up their supporting cast around Nikola Jokic, and the Orlando Magic making an all-in push to compete in the East. A big trade — maybe even a Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster — could still be in the cards before training camps open, but for now it feels like the league picture for the 2025-26 season has already taken shape.
Some teams will drop off because of injuries. Other teams saw their rivals zoom past them with bolder moves this summer. It's impossible to accurately predict the NBA standings in August when the season always delivers surprises, but it's already possible to identify the teams potentially in for a frustrating year.
Here are six teams that should be worse than they were last season when the new season begins.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers were fantastic last year after the Luka Doncic trade, finishing the regular season 18-10 with him in the lineup to grab the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. LA was subsequently smacked in the first-round of the playoffs by the Minnesota Timberwolves, and set out this offseason to find a starting-caliber big man and add more wing depth. The Lakers are bringing in Deandre Ayton to start in the middle, Jake LaRavia to add some youth and offensive firepower to the forward group, and Marcus Smart to see if he has anything left in the tank as a perimeter defender. LeBron James appears like he'll be back with the Lakers whether he's happy about it or not, and the suddenly slim Luka Doncic gets a full season to be at the controls. The optimist's case for the Lakers starts with Doncic re-certifying himself as a top-5 player in the world, and trusting in J.J. Redick's ability to patch over some of the holes in the roster construction. I'm still very worried about the perimeter defense here: Doncic and Austin Reaves are going to be targeted defensively, and there's not an obvious point-of-attack stopper on the roster. Smart seems a little too washed for that role at this stage, Jarred Vanderbilt could do it but hurts their spacing, and Gabe Vincent has mostly been a disappointment since arriving in LA. It's possible Luka vaults the offense to a near top-5 level all by himself, but there's not a ton of shooting here and the defensive personnel is still a bit scary even if Redick had them performing well last season. The Lakers finished tied with the Nuggets and Clippers and ahead of the Wolves in the standings last season. I see the Lakers as more of a No. 5 or No. 6 seed this year, and that would ultimately amount to a small step back.
Milwaukee Bucks
At the moment, the Bucks have the best player in the Eastern Conference. With the Celtics and Pacers poised to take a step back because of injuries next year, Milwaukee could conceivably ride Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominance to get back into the Eastern Conference contention mix after three straight first-round exits. Unfortunately, this feels like the weakest Bucks roster around Giannis entering the season since the end of the Jason Kidd era in 2017-18. Damian Lillard had his issues defensively, but he was still an awesome offensive guard for the Bucks who put up the type of production that is almost impossible to replicate. Milwaukee doesn't have anyone even close to Lillard's level in the backcourt this season, with Cole Anthony, Ryan Rollins, and Kevin Porter Jr. slated to get most of the reps at point guard. I'm not even very confident that newly signed center Myles Turner will be a big upgrade on the departed Brook Lopez. Bucks fans won't want to hear this, but I'm also not convinced Giannis spends all of next season in Milwaukee. Shams Charania reported again this week that the superstar forward continues to evaluate his future. It's clear that Giannis would ideally like to stay in Milwaukee, but the situation is just so dire that it feels like he'll be wasting one of his final prime seasons on a hopeless team. I can't talk myself into Bucks optimism even with Giannis as the top-3 player in the sport. If he leaves, this will quickly be among the worst teams in the league.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics' 2025-26 season was over the moment Jayson Tatum was diagnosed with a torn Achilles. Boston was proactive in trimming payroll from there, shipping out Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in trades while moving on from Luke Kornet and Al Horford as free agents. Boston still has some impressive top-end talent with Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard, but their front court talent is atrocious and there isn't much depth anywhere on this roster. The Celtics have averaged 58.5 wins per season over the last four years, and it's possible they might not win half of that this year. I'm guessing Boston will want to prioritize maximizing its lottery odds in the second half of the season to try to land a younger franchise star next to Tatum. I would be shocked if this team gets a protected (top-6) playoff seed next season even a weakened East.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors were a couple games below .500 when they traded for Jimmy Butler last season. Golden State closed the year 23-7 with their new swingman in the lineup before eliminating the No. 2 seed Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. Stephen Curry was knocked out of the next series against the Timberwolves with a hamstring strain, and the Warriors' season ended in limp fashion. Golden State has done absolutely nothing this offseason as it waits for Jonathan Kuminga's restricted free agency to resolve itself. The Warriors don't want to take on any long-term salary in those talks and reportedly still want a first-rounder back. There are a couple deals out there with Sacramento and Phoenix that could eventually return depth pieces to the rotation, and allow the Warriors to hopefully move on with signing Al Horford in free agency. There are pathways to upside for the Warriors: Brandin Podziemski could take an offensive leap, the rotation could be bolstered by the pieces coming back in a Kuminga trade, or maybe Kuminga finally takes a meaningful step forward himself should he return. I'm just worried about how Curry and Butler hold up over 82 games, and if we'll see more decline from Draymond Green as he turns 36 years old in March. The Warriors feel like a better playoff team than a regular season team to me, so a lower seed isn't the end of the world. This team is awfully reliant on old guys, and unlike the Clippers, their depth won’t be able to carry them.
Indiana Pacers
This one is self-explanatory, and it’s still heartbreaking. Tyrese Haliburton’s torn Achilles ruined what would have been a classic Game 7 in the NBA Finals, and now he’s out for all of the upcoming year, too. The Pacers are ready to take a gap year just like the Celtics, and I’d be surprised if this is still a playoff team without their engine in the lineup. By letting Myles Turner walk in free agency, the Pacers stayed more flexible to build a better team around Haliburton when he returns. It’s a bummer that this wasted season is the last cheap year for Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard, because both will be in for hefty raises. One advantage the Pacers have over the Celtics this year is they actually have some interesting players on the roster who will now get a bigger opportunity. Jarace Walker and Ben Mathurin were both top-10 picks who haven’t lived up to that draft status yet, but if they can develop in a bigger role this year, the Pacers will suddenly look more dangerous when Haliburton gets back. Add former first-rounder Isaiah Jackson to that group as well. I’m still worried about the Pacers’ long-term outlook at center. Jay Huff, Jackson, and Walker can soak up minutes this season, but an external upgrade will likely be needed eventually. I’m guessing the Pacers are back in the lottery this year, and that may not be such a bad thing for them long-term.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings aren’t tanking with Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan on the roster, but it’s hard to see a path to the playoffs either. Sacramento won 40 games last year, and it feels like they’re still looking up at the Spurs, Mavericks, and Grizzlies at the bottom of the West’s playoffs picture. The Trail Blazers will believe they can be better than Sacramento this year too, and I’m buying it. Sacramento’s defense will be a huge question mark, they still don’t have a real point guard on this team, and Doug Christie remains unproven as a head coach. The Kings reportedly want Kuminga and I can see that deal happening. I don’t believe much in Kuminga’s long-term potential at this point, and it just feels like another teardown is inevitable. The last thing the Kings want to do is tank again after so many losing seasons in their recent history, but this team is delusional if it thinks it’s going anywhere in the Western Conference.
