The Early Line Week 16
12/19/2024 08:40 AM
By Ron Signore
After going 3-3 last week, we moved our overall record to 14-8 since week 12. That would be a 63% winning percentage, keeping us profitable. Week 16 should keep the excitement high with the slate of games with post season implications.
We begin on Thursday night in Los Angeles where the 8-6 Chargers host the 9-5 Denver Broncos. Bo Nix has played well this season after a very interesting college career that saw him bounce around a little bit. His play, coupled with a stifling defense has kept them in the hunt. The Chargers on the other hand have played well, but not well enough to win the big games. Coach Jim Harbaugh has taken a previously Justin Herbert led offense that could put up huge numbers to a more balanced approach. The loss of JK Dobbins has hurt that balance a little bit, but their defense has continued to keep things tight. They are 3 point favorites this week on a prime time divisional game where both teams are playing for wild card spots. I expect this to be tight, but I am taking the road dog with the 3 points.
Saturday shows us an AFC North slugfest in Baltimore when the 6.5 point favorite Ravens host the division leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers came up short against in state rival, Philadelphia, this past weekend and really didn't look like they belonged. The line has already shifted to 6 points, meaning people are grabbing those points with the Steelers. However, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are playing at such a level offensively that they should be able to put points up on the board on the Steelers in a similar gameplan as the Eagles did. Coach Mike Tomlin's defense may be a bit more stingy than the NY Giants were against the Ravens, but 6 points in a game I would normally say is a lot of points seems like the play. I would also look to this game to add into a teaser, either to a pick for the Ravens, or up to 11 with the Steelers.
Another fun divisional matchup has the Eagles travelling to DC to visit the 3.5 home dog, Commanders. The Commanders have been exciting to watch with rookie qb Jaylen Daniels at the helm. The Commanders are in a seat to play for a wild card spot. The Eagles have already clinched playoff berth, but are in a tight race to secure the home field advantage in the playoffs. Moreover, they have been winning without AJ Brown or Devonta Smith dominating on the flanks. Saquan Barkley has had a career and record setting season in Philadelphia. My first play will be laying the points with Philly. My second play will be going over the 45.5 point total. I also am intrigued with teasing the Commanders up to 9.5 and the total down to 39.5.
The Bears host the division leading Detroit Lions as 7.5 point underdogs. This is a Thanksgiving day rematch that watched the Lions let the Bears back into the game in the second half, but poor coaching helped seal the Bears loss, as well as Matt Eberflus' job. For some reason, people have taken the 7.5 points with the Bears, bringing the line down to 6.5 points. I am going to lay the 6.5 points, but also want to tease the Lions down to half a point.
The Bengals host in state rival Cleveland where they opened as 7 point favorites. People do not think that is enough, which has driven the line to 7.5 points to lay for the Bengals. The Bengals have played solid football and are still in the hunt for wild card hopes. They are arguably the best 6-8 team with a potent offense led by Joe Burrow, Chris Brown, and Ja'Marr Chase. I am going to tease this down to have the Bengals lay 1.5 points.
The disappointing San Francisco 49ers travel to Miami on Sunday for an afternoon tilt against the Dolphis. Both teams are 6-8, but the Dolphins have a little bit more breathing room, be it not much, with post season possibilities. Tua Tagovaiola, who had a disappointing week last week, is primed for another difficult week against the solid 49ers defense. The 49ers, again disappointing, have struggled to find ways to win in games where they should have likely won. I am staying away from this game on a side, but this is a good game to tease the 1.5 road dog 49ers up to 7.5 points.
Despite staying away from the Seahawks/Vikings on a side, where my typical play whold be taking the home dog (3 points as the line opened) the line has driven that to make Seattle a 4.5 point home dog. If I touch this one at all, it will be teasing up the Seahwaks. It is tough betting on the Seahawks. They have a decent offense, but defensively, they are shred-able by a clearly superior Vikings team. If you have to play a side, lean Vikings laying the points up to 5.5.
That game is what leads me to focus on the Monday night game where the 14 point home favorite Green Back Packers host a spiraling New Orleans Saints team. The Saints started off hot with a dominant offense. The injury bug has all but killed that. Even those without injury, the imbalance of any offensive versatility has left even star running back, Alvin Kamara, impotent. The Packers are going to be primed to keep pace with the NFC North leading Vikings and Lions. Every game matters and laying the smack down on the dome team visiting Lambeau Field is how they will accomplish that. Lay the points.
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