talkSPORT betting tips – Best boxing bets and expert advice on Canelo Alvarez v Edgar Berlanga
09/12/2024 04:17 AM
Canelo Alvarez is back in action this weekend as the Mexican superstar defends his super middleweight titles against the unbeaten Edgar Berlanga.
Canelo was last in action in May with a dominant points win over compatriot Jaime Munguia, while Berlanga brings a 22-0 record to the table with 17 of his wins coming inside the distance.
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Tips
Judges could be required
Berlanga has a reputation as a knockout specialist with 17 of his 22 wins coming inside the distance. The Puerto Rican began his professional career with an incredible run of 16 first-round stoppages and for a while it looked as if he might break a record held by Ali Raymi (21 first round KOs), until he was taken the distance by Demond Nicholson in 2021 in an eight-round affair.
Berlanga has managed just one early finish since stepping up in class and Canelo has never been stopped, or even knocked down, in a 65-fight career – so a stoppage win for the underdog looks highly unlikely even if he does carry incredible power.
Canelo is the clear favourite and has a solid stoppage rate with 39 of his 61 wins coming inside the distance. However, his last five fights have all gone the full 12 rounds and he may settle for a points win against the challenger rather than taking too many risks.
This is a huge step up for Berlanga, but he has never been stopped or knocked down himself and he can at least reach the final bell.
Canelo can record another points win
Canelo is the massive favourite at 1/14 to win, with Berlanga a 15/2 underdog. The Mexican legend is clearly the more skilled of these two fighters and essentially the challengers' hopes hinge on whether or not he can record a knockout.
Berlanga does boast awesome power, but Canelo has an incredible chin and as mentioned earlier he has never even been knocked down or even appeared in any real danger of being sent to the canvas.
As such, it seems unlikely that a raw talent like Berlanga will be the first man to stop the WBC, WBA and WBO super middleweight king when they meet this weekend.
Berlanga is fairly inexperienced and this is the first time that the 27-year-old has challenged for a world title. However, 'The Chosen One' has passed every test he has faced in his career so far and dominant wins over Jason Quigley and Padraig McCrory suggest he is ready for a title shot, albeit this particular one looks a step too far for a technically limited fighter who relies heavily on power.
Canelo tends to do his best work against big punchers as those tactics play into his own counter-attacking style. The 34-year-old's last four wins have all come via unanimous decisions and more of the same looks likely here against a durable but inexperienced Berlanga, so backing the champion to win via decision looks a strong option.
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