RBC Canadian Open: Odds, predictions, value picks, preview for Canada's biggest golf event
28/05/2024 17:37
The PGA Tour heads north of the border to Hamilton Golf and Country Club for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open
Not unlike last week's Charles Schwab Challenge, which saw PGA Tour players compete on a revitalized Colonial Country Club, this week's event will also take place on a refurbished layout.
Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ontario has undergone an $8.5 million restoration, restoring the course to its original Harry Colt design from 1916, per the PGA Tour. World-renowned architect Martin Ebert completed the job, lengthening many holes to accommodate the modern game, too.
This week marks the seventh RBC Canadian Open held at Hamilton, the first since 2019. That year, Rory McIlroy shot a 9-under 61 on Sunday to win by seven, but this course will look very different from then.
RBC Canadian Open Odds:
Here are the current odds for the RBC Canadian Open:
- Rory McIlroy +360
- Tommy Fleetwood +1600
- Sahith Theegala +1800
- Shane Lowry +2200
- Sam Burns +2200
- Corey Conners +2200
- Cameron Young +2200
- Alex Noren +2200
- Maverick McNealy +3000
- Adam Scott +3000
- Mackenzie Hughes +3500
- Keith Mitchell +3500
- Tom Kim +3500
- Aaron Rai +3500
RBC Canadian Open Predictions
Colt's courses come in all shapes and sizes, as he wanted to construct his layouts relative to the land. He also believed in creating angles for players from off the tee. Thus, many of Hamilton's fairways have plenty of width, employing smaller greens and punishing sand traps that surround the putting surfaces.
As such, we believe solid iron players will perform well this week, especially those who hit plenty of greens.
Aaron Rai performs well
Not many golf fans may know much about Aaron Rai, but the Englishman has quietly asserted himself into the top 10 of the strokes gained, approaching the green metric.
The 29-year-old from Wolverhampton also ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage, finding the putting surface nearly 71% of the time. He is also seventh in proximity to the hole, averaging 35.5 feet from the cup.
He has two top-10 finishes this year. The first came at the Texas Children's Houston Open, where he tied for seventh. He then tied for fourth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, primarily thanks to a final round of 7-under 64.
Nevertheless, we like Rai to record a third top-10 finish this week at +330. He tied for 39th at the PGA Championship and most recently finished in a tie for 32nd at Colonial. However, given the weaker field, Rai will rely on his iron play to contend in Canada.
Canadian contingency litters the leaderboard
How could anyone forget the greatest moment of the 2023 PGA Tour season, when Nick Taylor sent shockwaves across his native Canada by holing a 72-foot eagle putt to win the RBC Canadian Open?
We can only hope drama like that will ensue again. But we believe a bevy of Canadian players will reside near the top of the leaderboard.
Corey Conners, who ranks second to Scottie Scheffler in greens in regulation percentage this year, will be there in the end. DraftKings lists him to win at +2200, but we like a top-5 finish for Conners at +450.
Adam Hadwin and Mackenzie Hughes are two other Canadians we like to play well on their home turf. Neither player has particularly strong iron play, but this event means more to the Canadians. Sometimes, things click at the right time—ask Taylor from a year ago. As such, Hadwin at +450 and Hughes at +360 to finish in the top 10 are worth it.
Rory McIlroy falls short
Rory McIlroy arrives in Hamilton as a massive favorite, as his +360 price to win falls into Scottie Scheffler territory.
Everyone knows that McIlroy blisters the ball off the tee, an advantage on any golf course, including Hamilton. But he has struggled with his iron play at points this season. His tendency to pull his approaches and miss to the left has proven costly at times.
Plus, McIlroy has a ton of outside noise as he enters the week. His recent divorce and other rumors lead us to believe that McIlroy will not win in Canada this time around.
Given the lack of firepower in this field, he will more than likely contend, but his top five and top 10 finish prices provide no value.
Longshot Winner
After missing six straight cuts from late January to late March, Patton Kizzire has turned things around over the past month.
He tied for 23rd at the Corales Puntacana Championship and most recently finished in a tie for 10th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, which included three rounds in the 60s.
His change in fortune can be attributed to his strong iron play. Kizzire ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green. He is also third in greens in regulation percentage and ninth in proximity to the hole.
That helped Kizzire immensely in Myrtle Beach, as his driving and putting also improved. But his Achilles' heal is his short game. Yet, if he continues to putt halfway decent, he has a chance at Hamilton. We like Kizzire at +13000 to win as a longshot.
RBC Canadian Open Winner
Shane Lowry last won a PGA Tour event—by himself, of course—on a Harry Colt course in 2019. That came at Royal Portrush, where he won the Open Championship.
But a month before his major breakthrough in Northern Ireland, Lowry tied for second at the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton. He did so thanks to his short game, ranking fifth in strokes gained: around the green and third in strokes gained: putting that week.
And yet, Lowry, who has a tremendous short game, relies on his irons more than anything. The Irishman ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching and 31st in greens in regulation percentage. Plus, he finds plenty of fairways—ranking first on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, which gives him ample opportunity to fire at flagsticks.
Considering the weaker field this week, and the fact that he has performed well on this course before, we like Lowry to prevail at +2200. He came close at the PGA Championship, thanks to his historic 62. He also has top-five finishes at the Cognizant Classic and at Bay Hill. McIlroy and Lowry also won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
Yet, Lowry is due to win by himself.
A victory in Canada will give him plenty of momentum heading into a big three-week stretch on the PGA Tour, as two Signature Events bookend the U.S. Open.
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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation's Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThroughfor more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.
