MLB Playoffs: NLDS preview
10/05/2024 08:00 AM
Two sets of division rivals face off with a trip to the NLCS on the line.
The Wild Card series has come and gone and as far as the National League goes, we've been left with a pair of spicy divisional matchups that are very likely to deliver when it comes to intensity and drama. The San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers are getting quite used to seeing each other in the postseason, while the Philadelphia Phillies are seeing a completely different divisional rival in the NLDS for a change in the form of the New York Mets. Either way, each team and fanbase will be just as desperate to avoid giving their rivals postseason bragging rights as they are hungry to simply get to the NLCS. It's going to be fun, so let's talk about it.
San Diego Padres (93-69) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
In what is becoming an even-year tradition for these two teams (an even-year tradition that their mutual rivals in Northern California would probably laugh at while holding on to their three World Series trophies), the Dodgers and the Padres are once again meeting each other in the NLDS. Los Angeles made short work of San Diego back in 2020, the Padres got their revenge with a 3-1 series win over the Dodgers in 2022, and now it's time to see who will come out on top in this intense trilogy.
As far as the season series between these two squads goes, the Padres may have won the season series 8-5 but the Dodgers picked up the series win in September when the divisional title was on the line. The two Southern California rivals played a three-game series from September 24 through September 26 and which started with the Padres down just three games in the standings after having been as far as 10 games behind all the way back on June 18. The first game went San Diego's way after Jake Cronenworth powered the Padres to pay dirt with a home run and a double that helped them win 4-2.
However, the next two games were still must-win as they were still down two games with just five games left to play. The Dodgers took care of business over the next two games, as none other than Shohei Ohtani came through in the sixth inning of the middle game with a go-ahead RBI single that broke the 3-3 deadlock and brought them to the eventual final score of 4-3. That win brought the Dodgers to being just one win away from picking up their 11th NL West title in 12 seasons.
While the Padres didn't roll over and actually controlled the game on September 26 with a 2-0 lead after six innings, the seventh inning was when the Dodgers broke out for five runs. Max Muncy crushed a homer to tie it up at two, Shohei Ohtani was once again responsible for the go-ahead RBI single and then Mookie Betts followed it up with a huge two-RBI single to give the Dodgers. Andy Pages closed the book on the 2024 NL West race with a two-run homer in the eighth inning to make it 7-2 and put Los Angeles completely out of reach. The Dodgers clinched the series that night in front of their home fans and essentially sentenced the Padres to the Wild Card series.
With that being said, the Wild Card round proved to be no problem for the Padres, as they drew an Atlanta Braves team that had found a way to limp into the postseason. With AJ Smith-Shawver being thrown into duty instead of an ailing NL Cy Young Award candidate Chris Sale, it only took the Padres seven pitches in Game 1 to take the lead after Luis Arraez hit a single and then Fernando Tatis Jr. launched one into the raucous seats in Petco Park's left field to make it 2-0. Michael King put the Braves in a stranglehold for seven innings and then Jason Adam and Robert Suarez both picked up in relief where King left off by finishing off the 4-0 shutout victory.
While the Braves did show some life at the plate in Game 2, it still wasn't enough to get in the way of this Padres club. While Max Fried was able to escape a first-inning jam, he would have no such luck in the second inning as the Padres added two more infield singles following a single from Luis Arraez and a game-tying homer from Kyle Higashioka. This time, Manny Machado made sure Fried wouldn't be able to escape as he hit a double to left to make it 3-1 and then Jackson Merrill hit a triple to make it 5-1. This was the loss condition for the Braves who had an awful record in 2024 in games where their opponents scored at least four runs and the Padres completed the sweep to set up their clash with their rivals.
While the Dodgers will certainly be favored to win this series and advance to the NLCS, it really wouldn't be shocking if the Padres pulled out the series victory in this one. While both teams can mash as hard as any team that's left in the tournament, the Padres have the clear edge when it comes to pitching. Throughout the second half of the regular season, San Diego's pitching staff has had a collective ERA- of 85 with a FIP- of 87 and an xFIP- of 91. Comparatively speaking, Los Angeles' injury-plagued pitching has only mustered up an ERA- of 103, a FIP- of 103 with an xFIP- of 100. That could end up being the difference but at the same time, you don't want to short-sell on how amped Mr. 50-50 Shohei Ohtani will be to be finally playing his first MLB Postseason games. If it's possible for one man to have a significant outcome on a baseball series, then Ohtani very well could end up being that man.
This is going to be a tight series where the first two games might be the most crucial ones. If San Diego gets at least a split then I like them to close it out at home. If the Dodgers hold serve at home then I certainly like their chances to win at least one in San Diego or take it in the decisive Game 5. The Padres are certainly clicking but I'm not going to pick against Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and the rest of the Dodgers at this particular time.
New York Mets (90-73) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
Meanwhile on the other side of the NLDS, we have another spicy matchup between two rivals who definitely don't like each other. As far as the Phillies are concerned, facing off with a divisional rival in the NLDS is old hat. They booted the Braves out of the postseason two seasons in a row as a Wild Card team and now they'll be entering in as a divisional winner for a change.
On the other side, the Mets have certainly done things the hard way. New York's second-half surge (which may or may not have been fueled by a certain purple fast food restaurant mascot) culminated with a wild, hurricane-delayed doubleheader that took place on the final day of the season — one that saw them punch their ticket to Milwaukee with a dramatic win over the Braves. That Wild Card series ended up being a dramatic one as well, as it came down to the Mets being three outs away from elimination with Devin Williams on the mound.
Once again, the Mets were able to continue their shocking postseason run after Pete Alonso finally came to life and hit a massive three-run homer to silence the crowd in Milwaukee and eventually push the Mets to the NLDS for the first time since 2015. The Mets have a pop star with a .382 BABIP for the season in this lineup. They just adopted a Playoff Pumpkin. The spirit of Grimace is constantly floating around their presence. This is a fun team!
They'll now have the chance to knock off a Phillies team that has been looking forward to October since last October. Philadelphia exploded out of the gates at a furious pace and while they didn't go wire-to-wire in the NL East, they were clearly the best team for the vast majority of the season. While Philly's offense is usually what electrifies Citizens Bank Park around this time each year, it's been Philadelphia's pitching staff that has been the collective star of the show. With both the Braves and the Brewers now gone, the Phillies are now entering this postseason with the NL's best pitching staff according to ERA- (93), FIP- (also 93) and xFIP- (90).
Philadelphia will have their top arms set up very nicely for this series, as they'll have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez going in order. If this series ends up going five games, they'll have Zack Wheeler going for a second game. The Phillies will have the pitching advantage in every game this series and this should be tough sledding for New York's offense.
With that being said, the Mets can at least draw upon the fact that in order to even get this far, they very recently took three-out-of-four against the Phillies. This included a 2-1 win where Tylor Megill and New York's bullpen collectively out-dueled Wheeler. However, the Mets and their powerful offense won't have the benefit of facing a clearly-past it Taijuan Walker in this series — Francisco Lindor and the Mets will be facing Philadelphia's toughest pitchers at full strength.
While it wouldn't be shocking if Lindor, Alonso, Iglesias, and Brandon Nimmo all managed to make something happen, I still think that it's a long shot that New York's pitching staff will be able to keep Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and the rest of Philly's nasty lineup quiet for this series. The Phillies are the favorites and I think that we might want to get ready to see them playing in the NLCS for a third consecutive season.
