MLB Playoffs: ALDS Preview

10/05/2024 08:00 AM

The AL Central takes center stage in the ALDS! The Royals and Yankees renew an old playoff rivalry while the upstart Tigers and Guardians duke it out.

The American League Central doesn't get much respect. Some of this is due to its history as one of baseball's "newer" divisions. The AL Central's only two World Series champions in 30 seasons of play are the 2005 White Sox and 2015 Royals. Neither were part of a lasting dynasty, and aside from them, it's been a complete shutout.

I suppose the neglect is also partially because it can be easy to overlook the AL Central clubs in favor of the more big-name teams in the AL East and West. There are the Yankees and Red Sox of course, but the Astros have been baseball's primary antagonist of the past decade, and the Rangers won last year's World Series. That's just naming a few teams; even the relatively anonymous Rays sometimes get more attention than similarly savvy organizations, like the Guardians.

The 2024 White Sox did their part to sink the division to new lows with a modern record 121 losses. However, not even those nightmare Pale Hose nor the collapsing Twins could completely sink this year's AL Central. Give them credit! Consider the following facts with the American League Division Series on deck:

• The division champion Guardians (92-69) finished with a better record than the AL West-leading Astros (88-73), and that earned them a first-round bye.
• Two of this year's three AL Wild Card teams came from the AL Central, with the Royals and Tigers (both 86-76) beating out teams with much higher preseason expectations, like the Mariners, Rays, and defending champion Rangers. Boston had a better record than KC and Detroit at the All-Star break, but both surpassed the Red Sox.
• Detroit sent Houston home for the winter far sooner than any team has since 2016. The Astros had made the American League Championship Series in seven consecutive years, but led by former Astros skipper A.J. Hinch, the Tigers knocked 'em out with back-to-back wins in the Wild Card Series — both in Houston.
• The Astros were a bigger upset by reputation, but the Royals sweeping the Orioles on the road was also a surprise. Baltimore is one of the ascendant organizations in the game and actually had a better record than Houston (91-71). No matter!

So is it the year of the AL Central? Should we be stocking up on Gates barbecue, rectangular pizza, and, uh, whatever Browns fans consume at tailgates? Three of the Junior Circuit's four remaining teams hail from the Midwest, but one juggernaut remains who could spoil the party — and it's exactly who Hollywood always picks as the villain.

New York Yankees (1) vs. Kansas City Royals (5)

Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 5, 6:38pm ET, Yankee Stadium
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 7, 7:38pm ET, Yankee Stadium
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 9, TBD, Kauffman Stadium
Game 4*: Thursday, Oct. 10, TBD, Kauffman Stadium
Game 5*: Saturday, Oct. 12, TBD, Yankee Stadium

*if necessary; all games will be televised on TBS

Don't expect the Yankees and Royals to brawl in the playoffs like they did when they really hated each other in the '70s. New York and Kansas City squared off in four of the five ALCS between 1976 and 1980, a quartet of memorable series that saw the Yankees take the first three from 1976-78 before KC got the last laugh with a sweep in 1980. From Chris Chambliss walking it off for the pennant as Yankees fans stormed the field to George Brett dropping the hammer with a towering homer off Goose Gossage that silenced the Bronx, these were truly terrific showdowns. Now, for the first time in 44 years, the Yankees and Royals are back at it, this time to determine who will advance to the 2024 ALCS.

The Yankees weren't juggernauts this season, but their 94-68 record was enough to lead the American League and earn a first-round bye into the ALDS. It seemed likely that they would face the Orioles, but these Royals had other ideas. Kansas City hadn't made the playoffs since winning it all in 2015, and with captain Salvador Perez the only holdover from that championship club, a brand new bunch of Royals are thriving in their first postseason (outside of a couple imported veterans).

Perez and ascendant superstar Bobby Witt Jr. anchor Kansas City's lineup, which has been a weak point in the past month. They were missing first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who was sidelined with a broken thumb, and KC suffered an MLB-worst .577 OPS in September. Pasquantino returned for the ALDS but honestly, the Royals advanced in spite of their offense. Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore pitching staff held them to three runs in 18 innings. (Naturally, two were driven in by Witt, both game-winners.) They'll need more than that up and down the lineup to beat the Yankees because asking the pitching staff to record a 0.50 ERA in a series again might be a tall task.

At the same time, the Royals have the starters to at least keep rolling. Co-aces Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo have already been discussed in this space and will have to wait until Game 2 and Game 3, but Michael Wacha makes for a fascinating Game 1 matchup with defending AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole.

Although head-to-head statistics can be spotty since lineups change over the years, Wacha is familiar with the primary Yankees from his two years in the AL East with the Rays and Red Sox from 2021-22. The 33-year-old has held the Yankees to a 1.94 ERA in 41.2 innings since the start of '21, and notably has had success against both Aaron Judge and leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres. Ragans and Lugo have also handled the Yankees this year; Lugo in particular shut them down over seven on September 10th in the Bronx, notching 10 strikeouts. The KC bullpen has to be feeling good about itself after shutting out the O's in 7.2 Wild Card Series frames, as closer Lucas Erceg recorded saves in both contests.

So yes, the underdogs have a legitimate chance to knock out the heavyweight. Has this section of the preview been all about trying to find the avenue for the Royals upset? A bit. Does it feel at least a little more likely that the big, bad Yankees clobber a bunch of dingers with Judge and Juan Soto going berserk as the Yankee Stadium crowd roars to life? Yes.

It can't be all star-driven, though. Cole can only make two starts, so Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, and the up-and-down bullpen have to do their parts. And if Kansas City pitches around Judge and Soto, someone else will have to step up. It could be Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Wells or perhaps Giancarlo Stanton, who has 11 homers and a .963 OPS in 27 career playoff games. Hell, maybe Alex Verdugo has a moment in him after a season that didn't exactly endear him to Yankees faithful (but did endear him to the clubhouse).

The Royals have already exceeded expectations. All the pressure is on the Yankees, who have failed to even make it to the World Series in their last 10 playoff berths, all since 2009. The last five have come under manager Aaron Boone. The front office likes him a lot, but if New York suffers another postseason gut punch and gets bounced in the first round with the pennant there for the taking, then WFAN callers will be even more unpleasant than normal, I'll tell you that much. And they might be justified.

Cleveland Guardians (2) vs. Detroit Tigers (6)

Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 5, 1:08pm ET, Progressive Field
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 7, 4:08pm ET, Progressive Field
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 9, TBD, Comerica Park
Game 4*: Thursday, Oct. 10, TBD, Comerica Park
Game 5*: Saturday, Oct. 12, TBD, Progressive Field

*if necessary; all games will be televised on TBS

Unlike Yankees/Royals, this Guardians/Tigers ALDS is a brand new matchup that has never before happened in the postseason. That's partly by design, as the Wild Card did not exist until the 1995 playoffs and these two teams shared a division for several decades. But it's also been rare to see Cleveland and Detroit this good at the same time. They've only overlapped in postseason once, back in 2013 (a one-and-done Wild Card exit for Cleveland against Tampa Bay).

If the Tigers were the surprise story of the second half, then the Guardians fit the bill for the first half. The Twins were the favorite to repeat as AL Central winners and the Guardians had finished 16 games worse in 2023 than they had during their own division champion run in '22. With a scalding-hot start under first-year skipper Stephen Vogt, Cleveland took control from the jump and never let go. That allowed the Guardians to watch the Tigers' ascent from midseason irrelevance with curiosity rather than fear of being overtaken. Cleveland finished its 7-6 season series with Detroit at the Trade Deadline on July 30th, back when the Tigers were busy dealing Jack Flaherty. They have not faced each other since Detroit began its mid-August surge.

The funny thing about this showdown is that there really aren't that many main characters on the mound. AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Tarik Skubal is one obvious pick, though like Ragans in the Yankees/Royals series, he won't pitch until Game 2. As it was with his Wild Card start against Houston, any Skubal start will feel like a must-win for the "pitching chaos" Gritty Tigs. The Guardians have their own pitching hodgepodge to match Detroit, as there will be a whole bunch of bullpenning throughout the series after Game 1 starter Tanner Bibee. Even if Matthew Boyd or Alex Cobb get starts, they won't be in there for long.

If you're a casual fan and are confused by who Detroit or Cleveland are pitching at any given moment, do not despair. Even baseball sickos like us are only so familiar with their relievers. To wit, here's a rundown of just a few names you might see:

• Tim Herrin
• Leo D'Amato
• Cade Smith
• Sean Guenther
• Charlie Stone
• Ty Madden
• Andrew Walters
• Eli Morgan

There are two minor Veronica Mars characters mixed in there. They blend in too well.

Anonymous or not, these bullpens are effective, and over the final two months of 2024, no one in the AL had a better relief corps than Detroit or Cleveland. The Tigers' pitching has been even more reliant on their 'pen than the Guardians, but given the urgency of the postseason, don't be shocked if Vogt has a quick hook. All year long, the bullpen has been Cleveland's strength, and this ALDS schedule affords them the off days to take advantage. Vogt's mission is to somehow, someway get the ball to Emmanuel Clase with a lead and let the man with a 0.61 ERA and 0.659 WHIP slam the door.

With all due respect to Tigers All-Star Riley Greene (not to mention Andy Ibáñez and Parker Meadows' Wild Card heroics), the Guardians have the superior offense here. José Ramírez will probably secure his fifth career top-five MVP finish without taking home the honor, Josh Naylor has 30-homer power, rookie Kyle Manzardo was on fire in September, Trade Deadline acquisition Lane Thomas looked better as well, and at his best, Steven Kwan is the definition of a pest at the plate. For Kwan, the question will just be about how his back is doing because inflammation forced him to miss all but two games from mid-September onward.

No matter what happens, a team that few really expected to see will play for a World Series berth. Per FanGraphs, the likelihood on Opening Day of seeing the Guardians or Tigers win the pennant was a combined six percent. Those odds have now risen to 41.4 percent, and for one of these teams, they'll be even higher within a week. To paraphrase a certain pilot of Sci-Fi lore, never tell them the odds!