Grading NFL's rookie quarterbacks in Week 1, with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix

09/09/2024 16:10

Let's grade each of the NFL's rookie QBs in Week 1.

The 2024 NFL Draft saw a record six quarterbacks taken in the first round. While three of those passers did not see the field in Week 1 — Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy — the other three all made their NFL debuts.

To say their results were mixed would be an understatement.

Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix saw their teams go down in defeat, with the Washington Commanders losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a final score of 37-20, and the Denver Broncos losing to the Seattle Seahawks by a final score of 26-20. As for Caleb Williams, the first-overall pick in the draft at least got to enjoy a victory as the Chicago Bears defeated the Tennessee Titans 24-17. However, Williams was largely an observer as defense and special teams led the way for Chicago.

So, is it time to panic regarding these passers? Let's dive deeper into their debuts and hand out some grades.

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bulls

Statistics: 14-for-29, 93 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 22.2 QBR

The highly-touted Williams was along for the ride Sunday in Chicago. The Bears, thanks to timely plays on special teams and defense, pulled out a win over Tennessee. Two interceptions from Will Levis — one a disastrous pick-six — were a huge help in that effort.

As for Williams, Chicago relied heavily on quick-game concepts, as just 7 of his 30 passing attempts on Sunday traveled more than ten yards downfield. Williams' Yards per Attempt of 3.2 was the lowest in the NFL in Week 1, with just Monday Night Football remaining. However, of the three rookies who started in Week 1, Williams had the highest Average Intended Air Yards per throw, checking in at 7.8 according to Next Gen Stats.

There were some flashes, as the rookie seemed comfortable subtly moving in the pocket to create space and relied on his impressive athleticism to keep plays alive when he needed to. One area where Wiliams can certainly stand to improve is with his eyes, as on several plays the rookie locked in on his initial read, and never looked elsewhere.

Best moment:

Perhaps the best play from Williams on Sunday came on this completion to D.J. Moore. With the Bears facing a 2nd and 14 with just over three minutes remaining in the first half, Williams connects with his wide receiver on a deep slant route, with Moore working against a press-aligned defender:

While Williams often locked in on his initial reads Sunday, this is an example of the rookie using his eyes to create space and then using his arm to exploit that space. Williams uses his eyes to get the underneath linebacker to slide a few steps away from Moore and then fires a rocket into his receiver to move the chains. Bears fans would love to see more of this.

Worst moment:

On the flip side of the coin is this throw to fellow rookie Rome Odunze:

There is something to like about this incompletion, specifically the pocket movement from Williams. While the splashy plays he made in college led highlight reels on draft night, learning the art of footwork in the pocket to create space is key to unlocking a successful NFL career. Williams shows that footwork here, sliding around the pocket to get this throw off.

However, he locks in on Odunze quickly in the down, and his eyes lead safety Amani Hooker to the ball, creating the breakup.

Grade: C+

Williams showed some flashes, but the production was not there for him and the Bears' passing game in Week 1. However, in a best-case scenario, this performance was a good foundation for his rookie season.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

Statistics: 17-for-24, 184 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 41.9 QBR

At first blush, Daniels put up the best numbers of any rookie passer in Week 1. In addition to what he did with his arm, Daniels led all Washington rushers with 88 yards on 16 carries (both team highs) and a pair of touchdowns. The first touchdown was a one-yard plunge on a zone read design, while the second came when Daniels decided to keep the football on a sprint option play, again scoring from one yard out.

Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury called a variety of route concepts for Daniels, from quick screen designs to some mesh concepts to try and give Daniels some easy reads and throws. Daniels looked comfortable working through reads, but as we will see in a moment he will need to get faster in the pocket, a task incumbent upon all young quarterbacks.

Best moment:

Daniels' best moment, beyond the two rushing touchdowns, was this completion to Olamide Zaccheaus from late in the fourth quarter:

With the football on the left hashmark, Daniels targets Zaccheaus, who runs the deep out route to the right side of the field. This is a long throw, and even with the Buccaneers dropping into Quarter-Quarter-Half coverage (meaning the cornerback over Zaccheaus is playing zone coverage and responsible for a quarter of the field to his side) the distance this throw has to travel means that if Daniels is a step or two late with the ball, this could be going the other way.

But the rookie shows great timing and anticipation on this throw, hitting the final step of his drop and letting the ball fly. This is an example of a confident quarterback, with the play slowing down for him.

On the other side of the coin is this incompletion, on a throw intended for Zach Ertz:

While I understand what Daniels is trying to do here — using a pump fake to influence the underneath defender — he is still a step or two too late after resetting and throwing to Ertz on the in-breaking route. Influencing defenders is smart, but when you are late with the ensuing throw, you put your receiver in harm's way.

Grade: B-

Daniels' grade gets a boost from the rushing production, and he had the best debut of the three rookies. But some misses on vertical throws — two in particular to Terry McLaurin, including an overthrow on the opening play of the third quarter that could have been a touchdown — as well as the general need to play faster are certain areas of improvement.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Statistics: 26-of-42, 138 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 30.1 QBR

In the build-up to the 2024 NFL Draft, many believed that the pairing of Nix and Sean Payton made too much sense. Nix's collegiate film showed a quarterback almost built in a lab to play for Payton, with the ability to operate an offense efficiently, distribute the football as a point guard, but also solve problems with his mind, arm, and athleticism when necessary.

The pairing may lead to success, but some work in that laboratory is necessary.

As with the two other quarterbacks, Nix largely connected on his throws underneath, and his Y/A of 3.3 was better than only Williams in Week 1. While Nix did try to push the ball downfield at times — more on that in a second — those efforts often failed to hit their mark. He also added a touchdown on a scramble and led the Broncos with 35 rushing yards on five attempts.

Best moment:

One could make the case that Nix's touchdown run — coming late in the game to cut Seattle's lead to six — was his best moment. Nix broke out of the pocket, used a pump fake to get defensive back Devon Witherspoon in the air, and then spun inside him for the score:

However, from a passing standpoint, this completion to Cameron Sutton was probably his best moment:

With the Broncos facing 3rd and 8 late in the first half, Nix climbs in a collapsing pocket and keeps his eyes downfield. That allows him to spot Sutton breaking open in the middle of the field, and Nix puts the throw on him to move the chains. Denver finished the drive with a field goal to take a 13-9 lead into halftime.

And yes, the throw could have been better ... but this is where we are.

Worst moment:

Nix threw a pair of interceptions, and either one could be the pick here. The first was an ill-advised throw on a vertical route, made late in the play and off his back foot. That throw came on a 3rd-and-9 situation in the second quarter, with the Broncos already in field goal range. Certainly an example of "what not to do" as a quarterback.

So too was his second interception:

Denver tries to run a post/crosser concept on this play, with Marvin Mims Jr. running the post route and Sutton running the crosser. Using a run fake and boot action, Payton hopes that Nix can either hit the deep post route working away from him or Sutton on the crosser. If neither is open, the rookie QB has tight end Greg Dulcich releasing to the flat.

Mims is covered well, so Nix tries to jam the crossing route into Sutton amidst a trio of defenders.

It does not well, and throws like that usually do not.

Grade: C

In all, the three rookie performances have some fan bases reaching for the panic button. While the results — and these grades — are not great the simple truth is this:

It is just Week 1.

Quarterback development is not linear, and it is unfair to hope that this quarterback will simply get better from week to week. There will be spurts of growth, potentially followed by a bad game or two. Each of these franchises drafted these passers with the hope and belief that they could be cornerstones for the next ten years, and not just winners in their debuts.

The main hope is that these quarterbacks show positive growth throughout the season. Use Week 1 as a baseline, and see where they are at the end of the year. If we are seeing these same mistakes in December, then we can panic.

Until then, try some yoga or something.