Fight Picks: Daniel Dubois vs. Anthony Joshua

09/18/2024 12:14 PM

On Saturday, Anthony Joshua and Daniel Dubois will meet for the IBF heavyweight title as part of Riyadh Season: Wembley Edition at Wembley Stadium, London.

The reigning Ring champion Oleksandr Usyk was forced to vacate his IBF belt, and Dubois, who beat Filip Hrgovic for the interim title, has been subsequently upgraded.

The two rejuvenated British heavyweights will meet in a potentially explosive contest on DAZN Pay-Per-View at 10:30 a.m. ET/ 7:30 a.m. PT. and at 3:30 p.m. in the U.K.

Joshua won gold at the 2012 Olympics. He turned professional and won British and Commonwealth championships before stopping American Charles Martin (KO 2) to lift the IBF title. The hugely popular Brit defeated Wladimir Klitschko (TKO 11) and Joseph Parker (UD 12) to add WBA and WBO titles to his collection, and was dominant against solid competitors Carlos Takam (TKO 10) and Alexander Povetkin (TKO 7). Joshua was shockingly stopped by Andy Ruiz Jr. (TKO 7) but regained his titles against the ill-disciplined Mexican-American in a direct rematch by one-sided unanimous decision.

After beating mandatory challenger Kubrat Pulev (KO 9), Joshua was twice beaten by Oleksandr Usyk (UD 12/ MD 12). The 34-year-old has returned with wins over Jermaine Franklin (UD 12) and Robert Helenius (KO 7) but didn’t look overly impressive in doing so. After a series of changes in trainer he has been able to reinvent himself by beating Otto Wallin (RTD 5) and the manner in which he took care of Francis Ngannou (KO 2) at least suggested he’s in a good place.

Dubois was also a good amateur though never reached the level Joshua did. He decided to turn professional at the 19 and ploughed through his first eight opponents before going the distance for the first time against perennial survivor Kevin Johnson (UD 8). He won British and Commonwealth titles before facing Joe Joyce for the vacant European title. With the fight up for grabs, Dubois was stopped in the 10th Round with a fractured eye socket.

He rebuilt his career and overcame real adversity with three first round knockdowns to beat Kevin Lerena (TKO 3). That led to a shot at Ring champion and IBF/WBA/WBO beltholder Usyk, who picked him apart – save the widely talked about low blow/borderline body shot – and stopped him nine rounds. Since then, the 27-year-old has returned and impressively beaten Jarrell Miller (TKO 10) and Filip Hrgovic (TKO 8).

Both men have rebuilt their careers after loses to Usyk. Joshua (28-3, 25 knockouts) has moved around trainers since leaving Robert McCracken, but after working with Derrick James and Robert Garcia stateside he seems to have found a home under Ben Davison. He now looks and appears in a good position. However, is it all smoke and mirrors, or the result of good matchmaking against made-to-order recent opposition? Has Dubois (21-2, 20 KOs) got over the hump where he mentally broke down in both of his defeats? Both fighters know each other from sparring. Will that give Joshua, who apparently bossed them, the edge or lead to overconfidence? Joshua is used to the big occasion, but this will be Dubois’s first time on such a big stage. Is he ready mentally for that?

Online gambling group William Hill lists Joshua as an 3/10 (-333) favorite, while Dubois is priced at 11/4 (+275). The draw is 25/1 (+2500).

Here’s how the experts see it:

THE RING 

ANSON WAINWRIGHT: JOSHUA TKO 9

“Both fighters suffered damaging defeats and were bashed by critics. However, both deserve credit for digging down deep and resurrecting their careers. Joshua lost twice to Oleksandr Usyk and changed trainers a few times before settling with Ben Davison. Meanwhile, Dubois, who has also changed trainers a few times, looked like he may be a nearly man until he powered through and beat Jarrell Miller and then upset Filip Hrgovic. This marks another step-up for Dubois. I think this is a very intriguing fight between two big punchers, and whoever lands first may well go on to win. However, I also think both will be weary of the other's power and this may be a battle of the jabs early on. I’ve been very impressed with both men’s forms, but I feel Joshua is at a higher level, plus his experience at fighting in big events will stand him in good stead. I expect Joshua to be in the ascendancy by the midway point and break down Dubois in around nine rounds for the stoppage win.”

LEE GROVES: JOSHUA KO 9

“Given the prodigious KO records and their vulnerable chins, Dubois-Joshua is almost guaranteed to end inside the distance. Despite having been shaken and stopped in the past, Joshua’s chin has held up well in recent fights, while Dubois’ remains an open question. And with his performances against Helenius, Wallin and Ngannou, AJ seems to have found the sweet spot between being respectful and destructive. With his height and reach advantages, AJ also doesn’t have to take as many risks to be effective. The pace will be modest, but the guess is that Joshua’s advantages in size and experience will result in a TKO victory.”

DIEGO MORILLA: JOSHUA TKO 8

“Joshua is long-overdue for a career-threatening upset, but this is not going to be that night. As good as they both are, they are both very vulnerable and have a questionable defense. Their chins have been checked already and their punching power is more than enough to expect a stoppage from either one, so the ingredients are there regardless of who gets the right recipe. But Joshua’s more cautious approach and slow starts will make it difficult for Dubois to land with power early on, and just as it happens with heavy punchers Dubois will get tired quickly if Joshua manages to make him miss enough power punches. A decision for Joshua is the smart money bet, but I’ll go with a stoppage anyway.”

MARTIN MULCAHY: JOSHUA TKO 7

“I give Daniel Dubois credit for registering solid wins after suffering his two losses, but I don’t see a route to victory against an Anthony Joshua who holds every advantage. The bottom line is that Dubois lacks the speed, both of hand and foot, to trouble Joshua on defense nor the defense to prevent Joshua from landing consistently. I wish there was more tactically or mentally to this, but I think it comes down to how much punishment Dubois can absorb not if he has a chance to win. My estimation is that it will be around eight rounds, depending on Joshua’s attacking mentality probably earlier, with the corner of Dubois or the referee stepping in to stop the fight.”

MICHAEL MONTERO: JOSHUA

“I love this matchup. Both have suffered recent defeats to the legitimate heavyweight champion, Oleksandr Usyk, but have gone on impressive runs since. Joshua is the taller, longer fighter with more overall experience. I believe he will utilize those attributes and box intelligently, from the outside, early on. The onus will be on Dubois to wreck AJ’s game plan. Can he? This bout will mostly be fought at a technical pace, with occasional hard exchanges in the center of the ring. Although I feel Dubois will have his moments, Joshua’s experience will see him through. Give me Joshua by unanimous decision, possible late TKO.”

NORM FRAUENHEIM: JOSHUA TKO 8

“It looks as if Joshua's confidence has been restored, which is bad news for Daniel Dubois, whose notable power is offset by a shaky defense. Against Francis Ngannou, Joshua threw well-executed combinations, one after another and all deadly. Perhaps, Dubois lands a big shot early. But that might be his only chance. Expect Joshua to weaken Dubois midway through the fight with combos, setting him up for a right hook that will finish him later.”

BOXING INSIDERS

DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): DUBOIS TKO 10

“I liked this fight from the moment it was announced. My opinion is that AJ is a former champion looking for another bite of the cherry to become a three-time heavyweight world champion and join the elite boxers of the past who have managed this feat. There’s his incentive. Will it be enough to stop a young hungry fearless Dubois who isn’t given enough credit for his boxing IQ? I think AJ will bring out the best in Dubois, and we have seen the best of AJ who these days loses his shape badly once he unloads, whereas Dubois holds his shape a lot better. The much improved Dubois seems to be getting better, and I would expect to see marginal improvement going into this fight. I think with a lot more head and lateral movement from Dubois, his work rate will be too much for AJ, who will simply not be able to cope. Dubois wins inside 10 rounds TKO.”

TOM GRAY (FORMER MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE RING): JOSHUA TKO 10

“When two authentic knockout artists square off, there’s the tendency to think the fight will be over in a hurry. However, what often happens in a puncher vs. puncher matchup is that both men respect each other’s power so much that a tactical battle transpires. There’s sure to be plenty of heavy hitting, but I think we’ll see a lot of technical boxing in this fight, too. Both men have cerebral and accomplished trainers in their corners and strategy will be key with so much on the line. Since teaming up with trainer Ben Davison and boxing coach/video analyst Lee Wylie, Joshua has gradually developed into an economical, patient and highly effective boxer-puncher. He broke Otto Wallin down with the jab and the straight right hand to head and body, forcing the Swedish lefty to quit on his stool at the end of five rounds. And while the Francis Ngannou fight was over in two, Joshua didn't waste a punch. Dubois cannot be underestimated and he’s an improving fighter. Perpetually written off following the stoppage loss to Joe Joyce in 2020, the Londoner has shown serious fighting heart in wins over Jarrell Miller and Hrgovic. However, there are holes in the IBF champ’s defenses and that spells trouble against a puncher like AJ. I believe Joshua is the better boxer and has more tools. He’s accurate and versatile with excellent counterpunching ability. Over time, I see Joshua breaking Dubois down and forcing a late stoppage.”

STEVE KIM (THE 3 KNOCKDOWN RULE): JOSHUA TKO 7

“While Dubois has rebounded well from his loss to Usyk, and he certainly has the proverbial puncher's chance in this contest, he is facing a boxer in Anthony Joshua who seems to have fully regained his confidence. It took a while to get over his loss to Andy Ruiz, but through sheer activity the past year or so, he is once again punching with authority and doesn’t look gun-shy. AJ has many of the physical advantages, and he’s also the straighter puncher from the outside. My view is that he will box early, and then layer his attack with more and more right hands. I see him stopping Dubois in Round 7.”

SERGIO MORA (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/ COMMENTATOR): JOSHUA KO 

“I really feel this fight has the potential to be a heavyweight classic. Two powerful but vulnerable giants who both have had moments where their heart and toughness were questioned. This fight will answer questions for at least one of them. Expect fireworks! I’m picking AJ’s championship experience over Dubois momentum and youth for this one. AJ by KO, in a shootout!”

CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): JOSHUA KO

“I think this matchup has all the elements to deliver an excellent fight. I don’t think this will go the distance. Although Dubois could score a knockout I see AJ being able to control much of the exchanges with his jab, excellent timing and distance. His counter right hand will play a major factor in this fight. I see Joshua stopping Dubois in 8 or 9 rounds.”

MARC RAMSAY (TRAINER): JOSHUA TKO 10

“Daniel Dubois has made a more than respectable progression since his loss to Joyce in 2020, and he has surely become one of the very good heavyweights. But unfortunately, Joshua is superior to him in almost all departments. I see a balanced fight at the beginning and as the rounds go by, a gap will widen between the two boxers. I think Joshua will stop Dubois at the end of the fight. Joshua TKO 10.”

BRAD GOODMAN (MATCHMAKER, TOP RANK): JOSHUA 

“Very interesting fight with both fighters coming in with a ton of confidence. Not sure what actually happened in their sparring years ago but I don’t take that serious. Both guys had their ups and downs throughout their careers but after each guy's last loss it seemed like they are different guys. I felt Joshua could’ve easily won the second Usyk fight if he just did a little more but in my opinion he just didn’t believe in himself like he does now. Ben Davison has done a sensational job in getting Joshua back to where we all thought he always should’ve been. The mental aspect is so much more important than the physical. In Dubois I’m not sure how to analyze him. He’s had three meaningful fights and went 1-2 with that win against Hrgovic, who I was never high on. Obviously, both guys are great punchers which usually means it should go rounds because they’ll be respectful of each other’s power. I think if Joshua isn’t hesitant and is smart while being aggressive he could stop Dubois the first half of the fight, but I think he’ll be respectful as will Dubois and it’ll go either the distance or Joshua stops him late. I believe Joshua wins in all departments (bigger fights, better opposition, better trainer) and the way he’s looked in his last three fights, I think he’s the best heavyweight in the world.”

JOE ROTONDA (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): JOSHUA TKO 7

“I actually really like this fight, both of these guys have seemed to turn their careers around and are looking much better than they did in recent years. Anthony Joshua looks like the best version of himself as of late, he made his last four opponents look like they really didn’t belong in the ring with him. Daniel Dubois is on the same trajectory, picking up wins his last two fights against two undefeated contenders. I am not taking anything away from Dubois, I think he is a top heavyweight and his name belongs in the mix with the elite of the division, but I think this version of Anthony Joshua is a problem for any heavyweight in the world, and I think he stops Dynamite Dubois halfway through the fight.”

MARK TIBBS (TRAINER): JOSHUA TKO

“I’m going with the more seasoned AJ, but a big DDD is treble hungry and has weapons of mass destruction to pull off the win. While Dubois has been polishing up on his offense, he can’t forget his defense. I can’t wait for this. It’s not going the distance.”

ROBERTO DIAZ (MATCHMAKER): JOSHUA TKO 9

“The battle of the big boys. A dangerous fight at this point for AJ. Daniel is a homerun hitter and has proven power. Dubois is coming to win and knows that a win over AJ is automatic stardom. AJ must be cautious in the beginning and establishing the jab and keeping his distance. Dubois must try to get in on the inside and try to land his bombs. In the end, the fans do not want to miss that because as we all know anything can happen in boxing and when it comes to the big boys, one punch is all it takes. Fun, excitement and bombs is what we will witness.”

RICH MAROTTA (COMMENTATOR): JOSHUA KO 7

“The Anthony Joshua-Daniel Dubois fight carries a certain amount of intrigue, so I am definitely interested in seeing how it plays out. I feel Joshua has plateaued a bit and probably reached his ceiling, while Dubois is still getting better and on the ascendancy. So the question is: Has an improving Dubois reached the level of Joshua? I don’t think so. He has a strong punch, and Dubois has undeniable grit and bravery, but he does not possess the same skill set as AJ. Both are flawed fighters, so I will not dismiss the possibility of an upset. However, I think Anthony still has too much overall ability for Dubois. AJ punches the sharper of the two, and Daniel gets hit with too many clean shots. I see Joshua a KO winner in 7 rounds.”

TONY SIMS (TRAINER): JOSHUA KO

“I think Joshua will be a big favorite, as he's vastly experienced. They both have tremendous punching power. They both sparred each other quite a bit when Anthony was a young pro and Dubois was a teenager. Anthony was always in control of the spar. So he may hold a mental edge over Daniel from them days. Although it was a long time ago now. Dubois has a jab like a right hand so can cause damage early on, if he starts landing in the opening rounds. Joshua also carries power in both hands, especially the right hand, he’s also very smart defensively, where Daniel lacks a good defense. It's gonna be a short-lived fight. I think it goes before the half way mark with Joshua earning the KO.”

MATTHEW MACKLIN (FORMER WORLD TITLE CHALLENGER/ COMMENTATOR): JOSHUA TKO

“I think you’ve got to make AJ a pretty solid favorite, especially as he seems confident and happy in his new training team. It looks like he's got his mojo back. That said, Dubois is coming into it off the back of the biggest win of his career against his best opponent (Usyk aside). And he had to come through some rocky moments to get the win, so has possibly exorcised some demons in the process. On top of that, you could say that AJ was supposed to do what he did to Ngannou and Otto Wallin. I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion by any stretch of the imagination. I think Dubois is dangerous and poses a real threat. But I’m going with AJ inside 8 rounds.”

RUDY HERNANDEZ: (TRAINER): JOSHUA TKO 9

“Joshua vs. Dubois will be a very entertaining fight. Their styles are made for each other. It will start somewhat slow but by the third round they will know their range, and fireworks will begin. I believe that Joshua’s experience and his activity will be the difference, in a slugfest. Anthony Joshua will win by TKO within 9 rounds. It won’t be easy, but Joshua is a disciplined fighter and that will be the difference. Dubois will be competitive but this will be another loss against a better fighter.”

Final Tally: Joshua 19-1

YOU MAY HAVE MISSED:

Lennox Lewis shares his take on the Anthony Joshua-Daniel Dubois heavyweight clash

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at elraincoat@live.co.uk.

Follow @AnsonWainwright

The post Fight Picks: Daniel Dubois vs. Anthony Joshua appeared first on The Ring.