Fantasy football 2024: Should you draft Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall in the first round?

23/08/2024 14:01

Is Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall a better bet to challenge Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 in fantasy football?

Christian McCaffrey is the consensus no. 1 pick in fantasy football. Last season, he led the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns by a back, yards from scrimmage, and of course, fantasy points.

If you don't have the first pick in your fantasy draft — but you do want to take a running back in the first round — your top options are Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. They're likely the only players with the talent and volume to challenge McCaffrey as RB1.

So which one should you pick?

Let's talk about talent

Robinson and Hall are two of the best players in the league, period.

Take a look, y'all:

Football players come in all shapes and sizes, but usually, they fall into a "fast" or "strong" bucket. Robinson and Hall have both traits in spades — they're two of the rare players who can outrun and outmuscle opponents, a short recipe for big plays. Robinson produced the third-biggest 'yards after catch over expected' play of 2023, per Next Gen Stats, and Hall had two of the top eight 'rushing yards over expected' plays of the year.

Both players can go yard on any given pitch. Hall has a slightly bigger bat (better big-play rate), though Robinson is a little better at getting on base (better success rate).

The assumption is with an improved offensive line, Hall will naturally be better at moving the chains while still threatening to break a long run any moment. Plus, with Aaron Rodgers returning, the Jets offense generally figures to stay on the field longer and have more scoring opportunities. New York had just one carry inside the 5-yard line last season (Hall's touchdown embedded above).

Even if Rodgers or the line don't hold up, Hall has proved he can produce in a poor setting. As a rookie in 2022, he ranked fifth in fantasy points among backs from Weeks 1-6 before tearing an ACL. The first time he played over 50% of snaps again was Week 5 of 2023, and from that point on, the only back with more fantasy points was McCaffrey.

Despite sustaining a serious knee injury and playing for the worst NFL offense outside Charlotte, Hall has been more explosive than Robinson (who finished as fantasy's RB12 as a rookie last year). It's fair to assume the 2023 eighth overall pick is the "better" player, but Hall currently has the edge — and now he may be on a level playing field in terms of environment.

Let's talk about volume

The Jets aren't the only team that will score more points and run more plays in 2024. Robinson's Falcons upgraded its supporting cast with the additions of Kirk Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who came with new coach Raheem Morris from the Rams.

Morris was asked about his plans for his star back in June. "Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can," he said, "in as many ideal situations that you possibly can."

Morris and both Robinson have cited McCaffrey's usage when discussing the upcoming season. However, third-year back Tyler Allgeier "is going to have a big role" as well, as Zac Robinson said in July. The new coaching staff has "instructed Allgeier to grow in the passing game, from catching and running routes to blocking," per Falcons on SI.

Allgeier is no slouch. He set the franchise rookie record with 1,035 rushing yards on 210 attempts (4.9 yards per carry) in 2022 sans Robinson. His rushing efficiency dipped last year in a declining offense, but the BYU product did lead all backs in yards per route run in 2023. Allgeier handled over 200 touches each year and showed nothing to indicate it was a poor decision by coaches. According to The Athletic, he "has been assured he will get plenty of carries under the new coaching staff, a league source said."

Robinson ranked fifth in snaps and 12th in touches last year among all backs. Even if he's deployed more creatively in the passing game, it's hard to imagine Allgeier becoming a complete nonfactor and thus clearing the runway for Robinson.

On the other hand, Hall has handled 330 touches in 16 career games with a 50% snap rate or higher (20.6 touches per healthy game). McCaffrey had 339 touches in 16 games last season (21.2 touches per game).

The Jets haven't balked at handing Hall a monster workload. Backups were added via the NFL Draft in the form of Braelon Allen in the fourth round and Isaiah Davis in the fifth, but Allen and Davis are bruiser types lacking speed. Even in their ideal role near the goal line, the Jets would be wiser to keep Hall on the field. No player on New York's current roster threatens him á la Allgeier in Atlanta.

Even if Allen or Davis end up vulturing touchdowns, it won't be any more than Allgeier. And Allgeier projects to see more work in the passing game than any non-Hall back on the Jets.

Though Robinson ranked top-five among backs last year in total routes and route rate on passing downs, he finished with 9 fewer targets and 18 fewer receptions than Hall, who ranked top-five in targets per route run at 27%. Aaron Jones saw at least 60 targets and 24% targets per route run in four straight seasons with Rodgers. Even if Hall continues to run less routes than Robinson, he'll still earn enough targets to keep pace.

Hall is already used creatively, too. According to Aaron Schatz's Football Almanac, "He was seventh in DYAR [Defense-Adjusted Yards Receiving] on screens (amongst running backs), second to Alvin Kamara in DYAR on angle routes, ninth in DYAR on quick outs, and 14th in DYAR out of the slot. He even led the Jets in DYAR out of the slot."

In Robinson's defense, Hall barely nudged him in total Receiving DYAR, and his own production as a pass-catcher was historic. Since 2011, the only rookie backs with an 18% target share or higher are Robinson, McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley (h/t Fantasy Life).

So which one should you pick?

There's no wrong answer. Robinson and Hall are the best backs in the league under 25 years old, and will play with recently injured quarterbacks over 35. Their circumstances are eerily similar.

That said, Hall has shown to be a better player, albeit by the thinnest margins. More importantly, he has less competition for touches.

If you don't have the first pick in your fantasy draft — but you do want to take a running back in the first round — select Breece Hall.