Fantasy football 2024: A guide to the rookie wide receivers
23/08/2024 14:45
Finding value in the freshman class of wide receivers for your fantasy football roster.
I never thought I'd start a fantasy football discussion with the four words below, but here goes.
Once upon a time, it was a rarity in fantasy football for rookie wide receivers to be worthy of an early or middle-round draft pick. Sure, there was Randy Moss in 1988 (1,300 yards, 17 TDs) and Anquan Boldin in 2003 (101 catches, 1,377 yards), but those monster seasons were exceptions. Twenty or so years ago, the adjustment from the college game to the pros was more substantial, and NFL teams didn't throw as much, or employ as many three and four-WR sets. Back in the day, it was common to project wide receiver breakouts in Year 3. Fantasy managers were aware of this and drafted accordingly.
Oh, how times have changed. Starting with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Mike Evans in 2014, and culminating with Puka Nacua last season, it's become commonplace for at least one rookie WR to produce high-end WR2 or even WR1 finishes, and beyond that, for multiple rookie receivers to be fantasy-viable. The college game has evolved to look more like the pro game, the pro game has become much more pass-heavy and offers roles to a wider range of receiver types, and the athletes are coming in with greater readiness to start and contribute right away. Across the last five NFL drafts, 28 receivers have heard their names called in the first round, and we may never again see another draft that isn't considered strong at the position.
Rookie receivers have really made their mark in this decade. In 2020, Justin Jefferson was the WR4 from Week 3 through Week 17. A year later, his college teammate Ja'Marr Chase burst on the scene and finished as the WR4, while Jaylen Waddle set the record for receptions by a rookie (104) and Amon-Ra St. Brown, a fourth-round pick, was the WR2 over the final five weeks of the fantasy season. In 2022, OSU teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both turned in WR2 seasons despite sub-par QB play, and Christian Watson had a mid-season stretch where he was the WR2 over a handful of weeks.
And then there was last season. Offense was down, and a lot of wide receivers underperformed. Apparently nobody told the rookies, who collectively were as strong as any group of freshmen I can remember. Fifth-round pick Puka Nacua led the way and broke Waddle's rookie catch record while also setting the record for receiving yardage by a rookie with almost 1,500 yards. Third-round pick Tank Dell was the WR10, at 14.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG) through Week 12, when his season ended with an injury. Beyond those two huge surprises, multiple rookie WRs taken in the first two rounds of the 2023 draft (Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers) were viable options for fantasy managers and all finished the season in the top 27 WRs on a FPPG basis.
It's easy to get excited over a bunch of shiny new toys, but as recent history shows, the excitement is warranted and rookie WRs can be difference-making contributors for your fantasy team. But they won't all produce, either this year or ever. Figuring out which ones might pop this season is easier said than done. Since a rookie has no NFL history for us to go on, the range of possible outcomes is wider than for veteran receivers. Which of these consecutively ranked players would you rather roster this season: Malik Nabers or DeVonta Smith? Those are the kinds of decisions that fantasy managers could face multiple times when they're on the clock.
Seven receivers were selected in the first round of the 2024 draft, which tied 2004 for the most ever, and three more went in the first five picks of Round 2. Three of those first rounders went in the top 10, a rarity. So you know going in that this is a very, very promising and exciting class of wideouts. Like I said, these days we can expect pretty much every draft to be a treasure trove of potential stars at the position. Some of these 2024 rookies will have starting roles in 2024, while others will be rotational players. Some might get a big opportunity due to injuries, which is of course impossible to predict. I'll try to tell you which rookies offer good value at their current average draft position (ADP), and which don't.
One last thing—if you draft one or more of the rookies listed below, prepare to be patient. It can take them a few weeks to get going and/or to carve out a bigger role, as was the case with Justin Jefferson in 2020. It can take longer than that. As Rashee Rice and Jayden Reed both showed last year, rookie receiver production can sometimes be more of a second half of the season phenomenon.
All rankings and scoring shown throughout this column is for half-point PPR, and assumes redraft only, with no keepers. In dynasty or keeper-league formats, you're looking at rookies across all positions very differently.
Before we dive in, here's a link to all of my preseason content, including sleepers, players to target and avoid, and more, over at sister SBNation site Big Blue View's Fantasy Football Hub.
The Rookies:
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (ADP: 16). Here's what I wrote about Harrison in my Red light: players to avoid column: I get the hype, but as a general rule, I have a hard time taking a rookie WR anywhere in the first round and a half. Harrison is the most touted rookie WR since Ja'Marr Chase in 2021, and the situation he is walking into in Arizona is a favorable one. But I do wonder if Harrison's ADP would be lower (by as much as a round) if he wasn't named Marvin Harrison. With an ADP of 16 it's going to be very hard for him to return fair value, in my opinion. There are other rookie WRs that I think will offer a better return on investment this season.
Damn, that's good writing. I have nothing to add. VERDICT: PASS, at ADP. Next?
Malik Nabers(ADP: 51). If you don't mind, I'll plagiarize myself again. Don't worry, after this you're getting all new copy. I wrote this about Nabers in my Green light: Players to target column: There's an old adage in fantasy about avoiding receivers with bad QBs, and it's a fact that Daniel Jones has never supported a WR1, much less a WR2, in fantasy. He's also never had a talent like Nabers. Word out of camp is that Nabers has been uncoverable, and he's flashed in the preseason games. Head coach Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka will figure out ways to get Nabers the ball where he can do damage, and he's going to be the centerpiece of the passing offense. I won't be surprised if he leads all rookies in targets. I don't think he has OBJ's rookie year in him because of the QB situation, but it could be close if Jones can stay healthy and the line holds up. It's risky taking a rookie WR on a shaky offense this high, but I feel a lot better using a fourth-round pick on Nabers than a second-rounder on Marvin Harrison, Jr.
Once again, no notes! Nabers is coming off a monster year at LSU and I believe in the explosive talent. Getting back to the dilemma I noted in the intro, would I take Nabers over DeVonta Smith? Yes, but it's close and I won't reach for Nabers. VERDICT: BUY, at ADP.
Rome Odunze (ADP: 94). The Bears were thrilled to have Odunze fall into their laps at pick 9, after they already grabbed their franchise QB. There was a clear "elite 3" WRs in the 2024 class and Chicago sat tight and copped the last one. For fantasy, do you really want a rookie WR who is catching passes from a rookie QB? Normally, I'd say no (C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell notwithstanding), and especially since Odunze will likely start the season as the third WR, with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen seeing more snaps and running more routes. An injury would open the door, and with Allen on a one-year deal and Odunze being the future, maybe he takes over during the second half of the season. Still, there are multiple WRs who I like better in this WR-rich range of the draft, including the next guy listed. VERDICT: PASS, at ADP, but if he falls a round or more past ADP, he's an intriguing stash pick.
Xavier Worthy (ADP: 95). Worthy is a player I love in best ball, but I'm also a buyer in redraft. He ran the fastest 40 ever at the combine (4.21 seconds) and caught 26 TD passes in three years at Texas. Combining his track speed with the big arm and play-extending ability of Patrick Mahomes is tantalizing. Worthy may not see a ton of volume as the third or fourth option in the K.C. passing game and he could be a bit of a boom or bust option this year. There will be weeks where you'll only need one big play for him to be a worthwhile start. Mahomes had the lowest air yards per attempt of his career last season and Worthy's presence should help him to reverse that. It's looking less likely that Rashee Rice will face a suspension, Hollywood Brown is battling an injury in camp, and Travis Kelce is a year older and probably will again be saved some for the post-season. None of that helps clear up what kind of snap share and target volume Worthy might see, but of all the rookies in this class he might have the most upside relative to his draft price. If you can get him in the eighth or ninthround, I think it's a great gamble. VERDICT: BUY, at or before ADP.
Ladd McConkey (ADP: 105). I don't understand this ADP, or why it's a full 45 slots before teammate Joshua Palmer. McConkey didn't produce big numbers at Georgia and while I get that the Chargers' top four pass-catchers of the last few seasons are all gone, I don't love the situation, with the Chargers likely to be pretty run-heavy and Justin Herbert battling a concerning injury to his plant foot. If I'm investing in this passing game, I'd rather take Palmer a few rounds later and especially since Rounds 8-10 offer a lot of good WR value. VERDICT: Pass, at ADP.
Keon Coleman (ADP: 111). Like McConkey, Coleman joins a team that saw its top two receivers depart this past offseason. More than 200 targets walked out the door when Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis moved on. Also like McConkey, Coleman got drafted by a team with a strong-armed and prolific QB. Coleman was a polarizing prospect, with concerns over his speed being balanced against his size (6'3, 210 pounds) and strength. He ran a slightly disappointing 4.61 40 at the Combine, but reached the fastest speed of any WR in the gauntlet drill. I'm bullish on Coleman, and think he'll have an immediate starting role in an offense that might be chasing points more than in the past. I do think you'll need to be patient as his game needs some refinement. He's a nice bench stash/WR4 in the 10th round. VERDICT: Buy, at or a little before ADP.
Brian Thomas, Jr. (ADP: 123). Guess who had the most TD receptions in college football last season? Harrison? Nabers? Odunze? Nope, nope, and nope. It was Thomas, running alongside Nabers at LSU, with 17. He's a dangerous vertical threat and the main question for him in Jacksonville is how opportunities will be divided between returning target hogs Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, newcomer Gabe Davis (who is also a vertical threat) and the rookie Thomas, who Jacksonville selected with the 23rd overall pick. Trevor Lawrence struggled at times last season and will be looking to right the ship, and Jacksonville is another team that could find itself in some fun shootouts. Thomas is flying under the radar and profiles as a good upside play who won't hurt you too much in terms of opportunity cost if he misses. He made my sleepers column so you know where I stand on him. VERDICT: Buy, at or a little before ADP.
Late-round dart throws (with ADPs):
Xavier Legette (153)
Adonai Mitchell (164)
Ricky Pearsall (171)
Ja'Lynn Polk (177)
All of these rookies have an ADP in the 13-16 round range, so they're extremely cheap long-shots. If Aiyuk doesn't return, Pearsall would be a solid discount, and have some appeal as bench depth. At this late stage of the draft I usually prefer to hammer backup running backs, so I don't see myself rostering this group much. But if you have a hunch on one of these guys, go for it.
Waiver wire watch list (with ADPs):
Troy Franklin (211)
Jermaine Burton (214)
Roman Wilson (236)
Devontez Walker (258)
Malachi Corley (266)
Luke McCaffrey (268)
Jalen McMillan (276)
Javon Baker (280)
Is there a Puka Nacua or Amon-Ra St. Brown flying way down below the radar in this class? Doubtful—there usually isn't. These rookies all were taken in the third round of the NFL draft or later, and mostly won't get drafted in standard redraft leagues. A few of them have a clearer path to a larger role or will be working in a better offense with a solid QB, but honestly this is a crapshoot. Watch their usage and production in the early going and don't be afraid to pull the trigger if it looks like any of them are starting to show something unexpected. At least two or three of these guys eventually will be worth a roster spot for sure. If I had to guess, I'd say McMillan and Burton will have the most fantasy value from this group this season. Or Franklin. Or McCaffrey. Or….
That's a wrap! Good luck with your drafts and keep it here for more of my preseason and in-season fantasy content.
