Anthony Joshua is the overwhelming favourite to beat Francis Ngannou, but here's how former UFC KO king can pull off a stunning upset

07/03/2024 23:00

There’s an obstacle to Anthony Joshua’s plan of becoming a three-time heavyweight world champion – his name is Francis Ngannou.

The Watford powerhouse is in prime position to face Filip Hrgovic for the IBF belt if the winner of Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk vacates the title in favour of a rematch, as expected.

At the time of writing, Joshua is ranked No. 3 with the major sanctioning body while the No. 2 spot is currently vacant just behind Hrgovic at No.1.

But a loss against Ngannou, who caused WBC champion Fury all kinds of problems when they squared off in October, would undo his rebuilding campaign in 2023.

Prior to the Fury fight, few gave Ngannou even the slimmest chance of pulling off an upset yet many felt he deserved to get his hand raised when the final bell was rung.

The Cameroonian superstar dropped Fury in the third round and pushed the pace throughout.

But some clever boxing from ‘The Gypsy King’ was enough for him to nick it on two out of three judges’ scorecards.

Now, Ngannou is back for a second shot at the divisional elite when he takes on AJ at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Here, talkSPORT.com breaks down the fight.

Keys to victory: Joshua

Joshua is the boxer and he will have to box to beat Ngannou.

Getting drawn into a slugfest with the heavy-handed Cameroonian would be ill-advised.

The majority of Joshua’s success will be from long to mid-range where he has the time and space to set traps.

Ngannou doesn’t have much in the way of head movement and mainly uses parries and pulls as his main defensive weapons.

Early on in the Fury fight he bit on almost all of the Mancunian’s feints, pawing away with his right hand when his adversary faked the jab.

Joshua will want to use plenty of feints to set up those openings left by Ngannou’s wayward parries.

The pull is also an awkward movement for Ngannou with the former UFC heavyweight champion often caught off balance when he leans back.

If Joshua can attack the space while Ngannou is off-kilter then he will sweep him off his feet.

In-and-out footwork will allow Joshua to land and evade Ngannou’s reply but it is a fatiguing style for a muscle-bound heavyweight like AJ so he will have to pick and choose his moments to take his foot off the gas.

Keys to victory: Ngannou

Ngannou’s route to victory is undoubtedly via knockout with the MMA star unlikely to put on the type of boxing clinic needed to best a seasoned pro like Joshua over 10 rounds.

He will want to pull Joshua into a firefight and enforce his will early doors by utilising the clinch to out-muscle and rough up the Brit.

Joshua’s gas tank has, at times, been suspect so putting his weight on him early and tiring him out will be a smart move that should pay dividends down the home straight.

One thing that really stood out in his fight against Fury was how he, for the most part, followed his foe around the ring rather than cutting him off.

Of course, Ngannou has spent his entire career fighting in octagons rather than boxing rings.

He will want to rectify this against the Watford powerhouse, who is nimble of foot.

It is likely Joshua will box off the back foot for the majority so it will be especially important that Ngannou steps across his man and traps him in the corners where he will be able to get his best work off.

Prediction

Dubbed ‘Knockout Chaos’, the crossover clash that sees two of the heaviest hitters in the worlds of MMA and boxing do battle is unlikely to see the final bell.

We expect Joshua to get it done inside the distance between rounds 8 and 10.

Unlike Fury, Joshua has footage of Ngannou in a boxing ring to study so the element of surprise that was there in the MMA star’s last outing is gone.

This will allow Joshua and his team to formulate the perfect game plan to beat their man.

Ngannou has proved countless times throughout his career that he possesses serious power in both hands therefore he will always have a puncher’s chance.

But a motivated Joshua, even at 80 per cent of his full capacity, should beat Ngannou nine times out of ten.