2024 NFC South Preview: High-profile moves and QB play will be keys to division title

04/09/2024 12:00

The NFC South is going to be as unpredictable as ever in 2024.

There's no division quite like the NFC South; unlike any other, it embodies the mantra "any given Sunday," and that won't be changing in 2024.

Most teams have gone through coaching makeovers and experienced severe roster tear-downs. Some NFC South teams have better odds of competing for a division title than others on paper. Still, as anyone who has followed the division for the last decade can tell you, those papers often end up in the shredder in the early quarter of the regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 record: 9-8
2023 offense: ranked 20th
2023 defense: ranked 7th

Subtractions: OC Dave Canales, LB Devin White, WR David Moore, LB Shaquil Barrett, CB Carlton Davis, LB Randy Gregory

Additions: OC Liam Coen, QB Baker Mayfield, S Antoine Winfield, WR Mike Evans, S Jordan Whitehead, C Graham Barton

Reasons for optimism: Reigning division champs; key players re-signed

Say what you want about the NFC South, but someone has to win it, and the Buccaneers have done so three years in a row, tying the second-longest streak in division history. Tampa Bay wants to continue that streak, and their first step toward doing so was securing their best players from 2023 for the long haul.

New contracts for Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, and Antoine Winfield Jr. were all justified and should keep the team competitive. Retaining those players on offense will make life easier for new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who many have pegged as the next great offensive mind from the McVay tree.

However, this ship has been and will be led by Todd Bowles and his aggressive defense. Bowles might be the most underappreciated defensive mind in football; his defenses consistently keep the team in games and have proven to be the difference maker in a tight division.

Reasons for pessimism: Baker starts over, and net gains

While the Buccaneers did an excellent job of retaining 2023 plus contributors and didn't take a step back, it doesn't feel like they moved very far forward. The team still lost key players, some before they even took a snap (Randy Gregory), and a team can only improve so much by building around a roster that led to a 9-8 record.

The team also lost Dave Canales, who was accredited with helping Baker Mayfield's career get back on track. With Canales gone, there's worry that Mayfield could once again go off the rails. If Mayfield and Liam Coen can't build off of 2023 and foster a similar relationship, the offense that only finished 20th in scoring previously could be rendered inept.

Atlanta Falcons

2023 record: 7-10
2023 offense: Ranked 26th
2023 defense: Ranked 18th

Subtractions: Head coach Arthur Smith, DC Ryan Nielsen, QB Desmond Ridder, LB Bud Dupree, DT Calais Campbell, TE Jonnu Smith

Additions: Head coach Raheem Morris, QB Kirk Cousins, QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Darnell Mooney, OLB Matthew Judon, S Justin Simmons

Reasons for optimism: Offensive enlightenment and proven products

Atlanta's trio of first-round investments — Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson — are finally free. New Falcons head coach Raheem Morris will have his offense run by Pro Football Focus darling and Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson, with Kirk Cousins at the helm, leading many to believe a divine turnaround is in the works.

Atlanta boasts the best offensive live in the division, giving this offense a real shot at carrying the team into the playoffs. And Cousins isn't the only impressive addition to the team. Atlanta added Pro Bowlers Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons to the defense. Atlanta has been lacking a formidable pass rusher on the edge for a decade, and Simmons pairs up with Jessie Bates III, making them the best safety duo in the league.

Reasons for pessimism: Thin depth and critical gaps

A lot of big names were just thrown around, and if the Falcons lose any one of them, the entire season could be in jeopardy. Atlanta's roster is full of what-ifs after you get past the handful of known commodities.

Players like Arnold Ebiketie and Troy Andersen are trying to prove they aren't draft busts, while other players like Mike Hughes and Lorenzo Carter already have. The team hopes Hughes or Clark Phillips III can fill the hole on the opposite side of A.J. Terrell, but there's also one in the wide receiver room. Darnell Mooney has to prove he can be a legitimate WR2 in this offense because beyond him this is room this room is pedestrian. A house of cards is exciting and feels rewarding to put together, but one ill-timed breeze can take it out.

New Orleans Saints

2023 record: 9-8
2023 offense: ranked 9th
2023 defense: ranked 8th

Subtractions: WR Michael Thomas, OG Andrus Peat, QB Jameis Winston, CB Isaac Yiadom, LB Zack Baun

Additions: DE Chase Young, OT Taliese Fuaga, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., LB Willie Gay, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

Reasons for optimism: Defensive prowess and pieces to compete

It used to be offensive prowess that carried this team, but for the last few years, the New Orleans Saints defense has taken on that role. 2024 looks no different as the Saints boast one of the best secondaries across the league, and they just added highly touted rookie corner Kool-Aid McKinstry to the fold. Demario Davis is still one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, and the defensive line is littered with talent like Bryan Bresee and Cam Jordan. The offense has weapons that would make any average quarterback appreciative and give the team enough firepower to compete for a division title.

Reasons for pessimism: Dennis the Menace and Carr crashes

Every team in the NFC South had a notable coaching change, but Saints fans will tell you they didn't move on from the main problem. Dennis Allen has yet to prove he belongs as a head coach. He has an all-time 24-46 record while being 16-18 with the Saints.

His defenses have rarely been the issue, but the performance of his offenses often wastes them. This leads us to Derek Carr, a player who is either going to help the Saints return to the playoffs or continue to keep them from it. Carr is making too much money to point the finger at others, and if he can't step up and be the leader of this team, he risks losing games and the locker room.

His wide receiver corps is oozing with talent, and there should be more chemistry between them. That being said, his offensive line hasn't done him many favors in the past, and the unit looks shaky as we get closer to the kickoff of the regular season. Carr could lose control of the wheel and drive this offense off a cliff if the o-line can't get sorted.

Carolina Panthers

2023 record: 2-15
2023 offense: 31st
2023 defense: 29th

Subtractions: Head coach Frank Reich, DE Brian Burns, LB Frankie Luvu, WR DJ Chark Jr., S Jeremy Chinn, DE Yetur Gross-Matos

Additions: Head coach Dave Canales, WR Diontae Johnson, LB Jadeveon Clowney, S Jordan Fuller, OG Robert Hunt, LB Josey Jewell

Reasons for optimism: QB whisperer and improved roster

The Panthers needed to go all in on Bryce Young this offseason, and they started by getting him a head coach with a proven record of quarterback growth and development skills. Dave Canales helped both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield resurrect their careers, leading many to put stock in Young's sophomore season. Dionte Johnson and a handful of other critical additions to the offense were step two in supporting Young. Now, the team has raised the floor of this roster, allowing them to put up a fight this season.

Jordan Fuller and Jadeveon Clowney join defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, one of the few bright spots of Carolina's 2023 season. Evero's defense could be a sneaky good unit that surprises many in 2024.

Reasons for pessimism: Tepper tantrums and inexperience

It only matters who the Panthers hire, sign, or draft once ownership is willing to step out of the way. The reality is this is the second offseason in a row the team has been praised for their head coaching hire, and it's the franchise's third hire in the last four years.

David Tepper must let growing pains play out for this inexperienced team because that's who they are and what they need. That inexperience may lead to some losses and the Panthers missing the playoffs for the seventh year in a row, but undermining development will only keep you in the pits of the division and league. A successful first year for this team would be seven wins, and that's OK, but if they can't muster more than a couple of wins in 2024, who knows how Tepper will react?